Who can overcome Cooper Flagg in the rookie award of the year?
AM850 analyzes the 11 players that threaten Cooper Flagg in the competition for the rookie of the next NBA season.
Regarding the possibilities of Cooper Flagg to win the rookie award of the year, the Lottery of the Draft of the NBA I couldn’t have gone better.
The Dallas Mavericks Not only did they get the first selection (which means that Flagg joins a competitive team where everything as a rookie will not have to do), but that the other two selections of the lottery also went to unexpected destinations. With the San Antonio Spurs, the second selection, Dylan Harper, is behind the newly renewed de’aaron Fox as a base, while the third selection, VJ Edgecombe, ended with the Philadelphia 76ers, a team with many bases and aspiring to compete.
Given these factors, it is not surprising that Flagg is a great favorite (-190 in AM850 Bet) to win the rookie of the year. But that such a publicized prospect takes the prize as a rookie is not safe. The last two American prospects in the same statistical category as Flagg, his companion Alero de Duke, Zion Williamson in 2019 and Anthony Davis In 2012, they fell short: Williamson dealt with an injury, while Davis was simply surpassed by his partner, the future All-Star Damian Lillard.
With this in mind, let’s see who could challenge Flagg for the rookie of the year, grouping them by category.
The contestants
Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz (+1600)
Tre Johnson, Washington Wizards (+750)
Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (+2800)
The three selections after Harper and Edgecombe were for reconstruction teams that have often given rookies of the year. Since Ben Simmons won in the 2017-18 season, only a winner (Scottie Barnes in 2021-22) has played for a team that won more than 46% of her games.
Bailey, Johnson and Knueppel joined three of the worst NBA teams last season and should have many minutes immediately. They are the three rookies, in addition to Flagg, which project with an average double digits in annotations.
Knueppel, Flagg teammate in Duke, could have the most immediate opportunity to prosper. Hornets have young quality talents in Lamelo Ball and Brandon Miller, who combined played only 74 games last season, and an obvious need for the Knueppel shot. Charlotte could start the newcomer Collin Sexton next to Ball in the defense zone, but Sexton seems to fit better in a reserve role. And Knueppel was more effective in Duke than the other single -game players in this group, which explains why he held the number 2 position in my statistics -based projections
The wildcards
Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs (+1000)
VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+1200)
These probabilities (third and fourth better, respectively) reflect more the talent of both players than their opportunity. Edgecombe has a clearer path if the Sixers choose to retain their selection (the first four positions are protected, otherwise, they go to the Oklahoma City Thunder) instead of trying to return to the playoffs.
Even so, the rotation of the perimeter of Philadelphia is full of other talented young people.
Tyrese Maxey is an All-Star and Jared McCain was the initial favorite for the rookie of the year in the close race last season before suffering a meniscus injury that ended the season. It is likely that the 76ers also sign the restricted free agent Quentin Grimes, who averaged 21.9 points per game in 28 matches in Philadelphia after the deadline of transfer.
Last season, we saw Reed Sheppard, the third team of the Draft – a rookie of the fashion year according to its statistical projections (including mine) and its solid performance in the NBA summer league – fight to win minutes. There are less precedents of that with the second teams. Marvin Bagley III is the only number 2 who has started in less than half of his matches as a rookie in the last decade. Bagley still averaged 25.3 minutes per game as a reserve.
It is not clear where Spurs could find those minutes for Harper. Playing with him and Fox together could be a challenge because neither is a threat of 3 points without the ball. And San Antonio recovers all his eaves’ rotation, including the current rookie of the year, Stephon Castle, another poor outdoor shooter.
However, if Fox or another base of the Spurs a prolonged period is lost, Harper’s possibilities to achieve the necessary numbers to compete for the rookie of the year improve dramatically.
The long shots
Walter Clayton Jr., Utah Jazz (+3300)
Nique Clifford, Sacramento Kings (+5000)
Egor Demin, Brooklyn Nets (+7500)
Jeremiah Fears, New Orleans Pelicans (+5000)
Ryan Kalkbrenner, Charlotte Hornets (NR)
Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans (+7500)
This group is a combination of low -selections prospects that only played a season and with the possibility of playing, and veteran players who could be more prepared to contribute immediately.
No player of 20 years has won the rookie award of the year since Malcolm Brogdon in the 2016-17 season, but since then we have seen rookies with more experience approaching him. Only last season, Jaylen Wells, 21, finished third, while Kendrick Nunn, promoted to the G League, was second, behind Ja Morant, in the 2019-20 season.
Clayton and Clifford were two of the first three seniors selected after Cedric Coward, the number 11 team, but what intrigues me most is Kalkbrenner’s rookie potential, selected in the second round. The Charlotte Hornets no longer have a pivot of the future after Mark Williams’s transfer on the night of the Draft, and Kalkbrenner could have the best opportunity to be the starter of any player selected outside the lottery. If you have minutes, Kalkbrenner should register good offensive numbers.
Demin will compete to be the head of Brooklyn, who saw the headline D’Angelo Russell leave in the free agency. The challenge will be to play efficiently as a teenager in an offensive of the Nets that has five first round selections. I anticipate similar problems for Fears and Queen in New Orleans.
Ultimately, the rookie award of the year will probably be for Flagg. We will see if another candidate arises to compete for the first selection.
