Jimmy Butler suspension and possible change: what we know and what’s next
After two NBA Finals appearances, how the situation between the Miami Heat and Jimmy Butler got to this point and why a trade might not be as easy as it seems.
Jimmy Butler’s six-season tenure with the Miami Heat appears to be coming to an end. Butler, who led Miami to the NBA Finals in 2020 and 2023, was suspended by the team on Friday for “conduct detrimental to the team,” a day after telling the heat that would like to be changed.
Butlerwho entered training camp this season with a “no mischief” statement, had scored just 18 total points in the last two games after missing the previous five due to illness. AM850’s Shams Charania reported on December 10 that the heat I was listening to offers for Butler and then, on December 25, that Butler preferred a transfer outside of Miami.
The situation escalated to such a point that after Thursday’s loss to the Indiana Pacers, Butler He said he wanted to find his joy again on the court. When asked if he could do that in Miamiresponded “probably not.”
AM850 experts Tim Bontemps, Bobby Marks, Kevin Pelton and Brian Windhorst break down how the situation between the six-time All-Star and the franchise he’s played for since 2019 got to this point, why a trade might not be so easy what it looks like and what it could contribute Butler to a contender.
How did Pat Riley go from vowing not to trade Butler to a seven-game suspension and the Heat now listening to trade offers?
The tactics of Butler to force the hand of Miami and reversing his stance seemed to work in the short term. He heat did not fully articulate all the components of what they considered to be his “disruptive conduct” that led to the suspension, but Butler he clearly wanted to be traded and took steps to have the heat would come to the same conclusion. His lackluster play the last two games after missing five with an illness probably made the list. In the short term, this move Butler It will cost him $2.35 million in salary, but he could eventually recover some or all of it through a planned grievance from the players union. — Windhorst
How have Riley and the Heat handled similar situations in the past?
Riley has never been afraid to say no to star players or walk away from them when he doesn’t want to pay them. Tim Hardaway, Alonzo Mourning, Dwyane Wadethey all went to sign elsewhere at various times. Exchanged to Shaquille O’Neal and Shawn Marionamong others, when he wanted to give the franchise a twist. Now Butler will be on that list. Riley has always been able to acquire great talent, and that reputation has always encouraged him to play hard. — Windhorst
This is not the first time Butler’s time on a team has ended badly. What happened in Chicago, Minnesota and Philadelphia?
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Jimmy Butler adds fuel to the fire of trade rumors as he wonders if he can rediscover the joy he once had playing basketball with the Heat.
Each of those situations was different. Chicago refused to give Butler a max contract and traded him to Minnesota for a package of young players and draft picks.
The Minnesota situation was very similar to this: Butler He was unhappy with his contract and requested a trade. But there was a big difference: Butler he had just turned 29, not 35. He was eventually sent to the 76ers for Dario Saric, Robert Covington, Jerry Bayless and a second-round pick.
Then, after one season in Philadelphia, the 76ers essentially opted to pay a combination of Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson and Al Horford instead. Butler and they sent it to Miami on a sign-and-trade deal during the summer of 2019. –– Bontemps
Can the 7-game suspension be extended? Have players been suspended for this long before for similar confrontations?
The suspension includes Saturday’s home game against the Utah Jazz and the upcoming six-game road trip. It’s clear that Riley is sending a message that she doesn’t want Butler close to the team at the moment. What is unknown is what will happen when the suspension ends before the home game of Miami on January 19 against the San Antonio Spurs.
Unless it is considered that Butler violates the disruptive conduct policy in your contract from the moment the suspension begins, Miami cannot extend the suspension to include more games. Because the suspension is with the team and not the NBA, the Heat will not receive any luxury tax savings.
Butler He is not the only player in the last three seasons who has been suspended by his team. In November 2022, the Brooklyn Nets suspended point guard Kyrie Irving for eight games for being “unfit to be associated” with the team after the point guard failed to say whether he held anti-Semitic beliefs. –-Marks
How much will Butler be fined? Can you file a complaint?
Butler He will be fined $336,543 for each of the seven games he missed. The amount is equal to 1/145 of his $48.8 million salary, for a total of $2.4 million. Butler You have 30 days to file a complaint, and the fined amount will remain in an escrow account until the situation is resolved. The complaint process could take up to a year. The NBA Players Association issued a statement Friday night saying the suspension was excessive and inappropriate.
What teams could they trade for him?
The fact that Butler has asked to be transferred and that the heat Listening to offers doesn’t change the challenges of finding the former All-Star a new home. The combined salary of $48.8 million Butler this season and nearly a third of teams not being allowed to recoup more salary in a trade complicates any potential deal.
Three of the four teams on the preferred list of Butler (the Dallas Mavericks, the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns) would need to transfer a quarter of their roster. The Suns would need Bradley Beal to waive his no-trade clause. Sources told AM850 that the heat has no desire to recover the $110 million that is owed to Beal and that Phoenix would need to find a third team. The Warriors and Mavericks would likely need to find a third or fourth team to redirect some of the sent contracts.
He heat Nor is it allowed to recover more salary because it is a first team. –Marks
Could Butler help a contender this season and in the future (if he re-signed with that team)?
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That depends on how much you benefit Butler to rediscover the joy of basketball with another team. The 17.6 scoring average of Butler is his lowest since 2013-14, the season before he won the Most Improved Player award and was named an All-Star for the first time, but there is reason to believe that Butler has more to give in other areas.
The usage rate of 21% Butler is substantially down from 24% last season. At the same time, Butler he’s scoring more efficiently. His .648 true shooting percentage would be the best of his NBA career, just ahead of 2023-24. And 58% on 2-point shots Butler is easily a career-high, suggesting his drop in scoring is due more to his selectivity than his inability to create shots.
Not only the peripheral statistics of Butler remain solid, but we have ample evidence that “Playoff Jimmy” He plays his best when the stakes are highest. During the four participations of Butler in the playoffs in Miami (before he sat out the 2024 first round loss of the heat against the Boston Celtics due to a sprained MCL), led the NBA with 12.4 wins by my WARP (wins above replacement player) metric during that span.
During the regular season, Butler he was only sixth in total WARP during the corresponding seasons. He produced 3.7 more WARP in the playoffs than we would expect based on his regular season performance. Only Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray performed better in the playoffs than Butler between 2020 and 2023.
At some point, the age of Butler (35) will undoubtedly take its toll, which explains the reluctance of Miami to offer you a maximum extension. Over the next three seasons, my SCHOENE projection system predicts that Butler will lose about three wins in terms of value in the regular season based on the development of similar players at the same age. Although the projection of Butler For 2025-26 it still places him among the 20 best players in the NBA, for 2027-28 that forecast drops to 45th place. — Kevin Pelton
What kind of extension is Butler looking for? What is the most likely outcome before the trade deadline?
Due to the league’s over-38 rule, the maximum extension that Miami I could sign Butler It is for two years and $112.6 million. That would replace his $52.4 million player option for next season with a new salary starting at $54.1 million. The second year I would pay Butler $58.5 million when he is 37 years old.
Yeah Butler If he were traded, he would be eligible to sign a two-year, $111 million extension with his new team.
A demand for exchange by Butler and now the suspension does not mean that the heat be obliged to make an exchange. Yeah Miami If you don’t receive an offer you like, you can let Butler leave as a free agent if he declines his player option, or work together on a trade.
Butlerwho will turn 36 in September, doesn’t fit the roster schedule of the Brooklyn Nets, the only team projected to have more than $40 million in cap space. –Marks
Are we sure they are going to change it?
No. The way things went with Paul George last season with the LA Clippers is a model for how this situation could play out in the coming months.
The long-standing NBA paradigm in these situations is that the team with a disgruntled player like Butler “he has to get something” and transfer it somewhere. But that was in a previous financial reality in which the league existed.
Under this much more restrictive collective bargaining agreement, the NBA is operating in what is much closer to a strict salary cap environment than it used to be. So if the process of getting something done in a deal requires a team to accept a long-term negative salary, that can cause real problems for a club trying to change course beyond such a deal in the future. That’s doubly true for him. heatwhich remains one of the league’s most desirable destinations for players and wants to have as much flexibility as possible to acquire more high-level talent in the future.
That is one of the many reasons why, according to sources, the heat reluctant to accept long-term money in a swap Butler. Add to that the trade restrictions that have made it difficult for big salaries to be transferred across the league, and sources are far from convinced that a deal can be guaranteed in the next month. –– Bontemps
