Why the NBA should still fear the Golden State Warriors
The championship window for Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors may not be completely closed.
A decade after winning the first of four titles to start a dynasty, the Golden State Warriors They seem to have been surpassed by the rest of the Western Conference.
According to AM850 BET, the Warriors have the seventh-best chance to win the West this season, behind the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves and LA Clippers.
That position makes some sense. Golden State was the seventh seed last season, was eliminated in five second-round games and could boast the oldest starting lineup in NBA history this season. Yeah Buddy Hield joins Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green and Al Horford in the starting lineup after Hield’s birthday on Dec. 17, the Warriors would be the first team to put five players age 33 or older in a game, according to AM850 Research.
But that quick, pessimistic summary severely underestimates Golden State’s potential. In contrast, the Warriors are emerging as one of the most dangerous teams in the West, even in their decline, and could even compete with the almighty Thunder. The last NBA champion to repeat his title could be a surprise that prevents the new candidate from repeating his title.
A full season with Curry and Butler
AM850’s Kevin Pelton’s projections They place the Warriors in second place in the entire NBA, with a forecast of 56 wins, closer to the top of the West than to the play-in phase.
What explains the discrepancy between that projection and the general perception that the Warriors’ window has closed? Here’s a simple explanation: In half a season under Butler, the Warriors were one of the best teams in the league and improved in the preseason. By that logic, they should be contenders again this season.
Golden State upset the second-seeded Rockets in the first round and took the opener against the Timberwolves before running out of steam after losing Curry, who suffered a hamstring strain 13 minutes into the series. There is no shame in losing like that, as any contender would expect to struggle without their best player.
However, don’t let the Warriors’ weak playoff exit in the 2024-25 season obscure their remarkable turnaround during the season. Before Butler’s trade, Golden State had a record of 25-26 with a net rating of -0.4. But from Butler’s debut until the end of the regular season, he ranked first in defensive rating and third in net, with +9.2 per 100 possessions. The record of 23-8 of the team in that period, whichThat extrapolated to 61 victories in a full season was no coincidence.
With Curry and Butler back on board for a full season, there’s no reason to think Golden State will get any worse this season. The Warriors should benefit from incredible continuity. Twelve of their top 13 players in 2024-25 postseason minutes will return in 2025-26, and they improved with the only departure (Kevin Looney) thanks to Horford, who left the Boston Celtics in free agency.
The Horford Impact
Horford’s arrival to Golden State It’s crucial, as Curry has never played with a center like the 39-year-old NBA champion. Among Warriors centers since Curry’s breakout season (2012-13), the leaders in total triples are Dario Saric, who scored 74 as a substitute center in the 2023-24 season, and Quinten Post, who scored 73 as a rookie last season.
By comparison, Horford has made more than ten 3-pointers in each of the last three seasons, and his 40.9% 3-point percentage during that period is the best among all centers with at least 100, slightly ahead of the 40.8% of Karl-Anthony Towns. His ability to spread the floor will provide important balance alongside Butler and Green, who can be reluctant shooters. Horford is also a far superior defender and playmaker than Saric and Post, making him a more versatile option for the Warriors lineup. There is enormous defensive potential in a front line with Butler, Green and Horford, who have made a total of 15 All-Defensive Team appearances over the course of their careers.
After all, solid defense is as crucial to the Warriors’ winning identity as Curry’s deep three-pointers. In the 2021-22 season, their last championship season, the Warriors finished second in defensive rating compared to just 16th in offense. And last year, Golden State led the league in defensive rating after Butler’s arrival, even without Horford, and even with their opponents making an unsustainably high percentage of their 3-pointers.
A complete template
Golden State should also improve on the other end this season. In the 2024-25 season, the offense performed well while Curry was on the court, but fell apart when he rested; lineups without Curry and Butler ranked in just the 5th percentile in offensive rating, according to Cleaning the Glass.
However, Butler stabilized those groups, and the Warriors ended up looking solid while one of those stars was on the court.
Age and availability could hinder that plan. Curry has missed an average of 15 games per season since sitting out nearly the entire 2019-20 season, while Butler hasn’t reached the 65-game threshold for NBA awards since the 2018-19 season.
The Warriors will likely struggle again with Curry sitting on the bench in games Butler misses. Jonathan Kuminga, who for now remains a member of the Warriors after a lengthy restricted free agency, could play an important role as the best scoring option in the minutes without Curry or Butler; He averaged 24.3 points on 55% shooting from the field in the Warriors’ final four playoff games last season.
Or Kuminga could improve the team by facilitating a mid-season transfer. Kuminga is the only Warriors player with a cap hit of between $12 million and $25 million this season, meaning he would provide the salary needed for Golden State to land another sizable contract at the deadline. For now, however, it’s unclear where the Warriors would need to improve. As the season approaches, they operate with an enviable combination of stars and depth.
Five different Warriors (Curry, Butler, Green, Horford and Brandin Podziemski) rank in the top 10% of the league’s most impactful players per possession, according to the xRAPM advanced statistic, which combines play-by-play and game data. The only other teams with more than three such players are the Thunder, Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers.
And behind that quintet, the Warriors have a hodgepodge of perimeter role players (Hield, Kuminga, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, De’Anthony Melton) with varying strengths, plus Post and Trayce Jackson-Davis, who offer different options as big players off the bench. As Pelton notes of his projections, the Warriors “have 11 players who are above league average, tied with the Thunder for most results of any team.”
The rest of the West
Ultimately, the Warriors’ biggest problem might not be their roster in particular, but the context around them: The top of the West is much better than in 2022, when Golden State beat the injury-plagued Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks en route to the Finals.
But even with that change, there are still major concerns for all teams in the conference, behind Oklahoma City and Denver. Fred VanVleet’s torn ACL should reduce Houston’s potential, perhaps considerably. Minnesota relies on several rapidly aging veterans (38-year-old Mike Conley and 33-year-old Rudy Gobert) and inexperienced youngsters (Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr.) to support Anthony Edwards. The Lakers have a weak rotation and a potentially disastrous defense, and they’re already dealing with LeBron James’ injury. The Clippers face the same age questions as the Warriors, plus potential fallout from the Kawhi Leonard/Aspiration investigation.
Even the Thunder, who don’t have a single minor, let alone major, concern, might have a hard time dispatching Golden State in a potential playoff matchup. The Warriors have played very tough against this version of the Thunder. Over the past two seasons, Golden State has a 3-4 record against Oklahoma City; two of those losses were in overtime, and Curry did not play in the other two. Butler was not on the roster in any of those games.
The Warriors would never be the favorites to defeat the Thunder, of course, and would have to navigate a minefield — of talented competition and their own age hurdles — to have a chance. But it’s not an entirely unrealistic proposition, and at this stage in their competitive schedule, an opportunity is all the Warriors can ask for.
With James Wiseman gone and Kuminga on the verge of leaving, the Warriors’ “two-term” plan has been ruined. Now it all comes down to the present and making the most of Curry’s remaining opportunities to add more trophies to his cabinet.
