What went wrong with Braves in 2025 and how to solve it in 2026?
Braves seems on his way to his first loser season since 2017, what failed and how will they solve it for 2026?
This would be the dynasty II in Atlanta.
From 1991 to 2005, the Atlanta Braves won 14 division titles in 15 seasons and only lost it during the 1994 strike. From 2018 to 2024, the Braves won six division titles in seven seasons, and only lost last year, when they still reached the playoffs. Along the way, they won a world series in 2021, they had consecutive seasons of 100 wins in 2022 and 2023, and presented one of the most powerful lineups of all time in 2023, when they became the first team to have an average bat of .500.
Although the last three postseason ended in early defeats, the Braves had built a team that was the envy of the directives of the entire League: they had not only developed young talents, but they had also signed Ronald Acun Jr., Spencer Stider, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy and Reynaldo Lopez with contracts deadline, several of which were considered especially favorable for the team. With Acuña and Stider returning from their injuries, the Braves were the favorites of the division at the beginning of the season.
Instead, they have been a disaster. The Braves had a 0-6 record on their inaugural tour of the season against the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, scoring only 14 races in the six games. They traced above .500 once, with 24-23 on May 18, but a streak of seven consecutive losses at the beginning of June took them to two terrible months. Although they played better in August, it is already too late, since the Braves seem to be headed for their first losing season since 2017.
What went wrong?
Can the braves recover?
While moving from 104 victories to a losing record in two years seems unusual, it is not something unprecedented. Since 1961, 76 teams have won 100 games. Of those teams, 18 had a losing season in two years. More recently, the New York Mets of 2022 won 101 games and had a losing record the following season (although they recovered to reach the playoffs in 2024). But that Mets team was an impromptu template of veteran players and free agents. The braves seemed to have the basis to get more division titles.
Let’s analyze what has happened and what follows.
Pitchers and free agents who left
Led by the winner of the Cy Young, Chris Sale, the Braves of 2024 had an excellent rotation: third in the largest in effectiveness and third in tickets released. They hoped to add Stider earlier this season and obtain a complete campaign by Spencer Schwellenbach, who had an excellent rookie year in 2024 with 21 openings. They also had Grant Holmes, who had appeared as a starter and reliever in 2024 and had looked well in his brief periods in rotation. If we add to this to the All-Star of 2024, Reynaldo López, who came from an effectiveness of 1.99, seemed to be ready, despite losing Max Fried and Charlie Morton in free agency.
Ahh, but Fried and Morton’s exits meant that they still had to replace 59 openings and almost 340 entries in the rotation, and that is not easy. If one takes into account that López had been on the list of injured twice in the late 2024 due to a relaxation in the forearm and a shoulder problem, which comes out of its healthiest season since 2017, that Stider came from a serious injury and that Schwellenbach and Holmes had never launched a full season in the elderly, it is easy to see in retrospective that there was a high risk of injuries. The Braves believed to have enough depth with the 2023 All-Star, Bryce Elder, and AJ Smith-Shawver.
The five projected openers were injured at some point. López lasted an opening before undergoing shoulder surgery. Strider has not been the same explosive pitcher of 2022 and 2023. Smith-Shawver underwent a Tommy John surgery after nine openings and Elder, forced to remain in the rotation, has an effectiveness of 6.12. As the injuries accumulated after the recess of the stars game, the braves had to look for players like Carlos CarrascoCal Quantrill and Erick Fedde to complete the rotation. The Braves occupy the 23rd position in the major leagues in effectiveness of rotation.
But even with Seta, Schwellenbach, Holmes and Strider in the rotation at the end of June, the Braves had a record of only 38-45 (although they occupied the 13th place in effectiveness at that time). Other teams have overcome rotation injuries and survived, since the Mets have had five openers with long stays in the injured list this season, while Dodgers have also played with a series of rotation injuries.
What to expect from 2026? The Braves will recover all these openers by 2026, hoping that everyone is healthy for the opening day, except Smith-Shawver. If we add Hurson Waldrep, selected in the first 2023 draft round and who has had an excellent performance since he joined the rotation in August, the Braves will begin next season with a potentially stellar rotation. Given the uncertainty with Schwellenbach (elbow fracture) and Holmes (rehabilitating its ulnar collateral ligament instead of undergoing Tommy John surgery), it probably makes sense to sign a veteran headline in free agency.
SUSPENSION TO JURICKSON PROPER FOR USE OF PROHIBITED SUBSTANCES
Profar, who signed a three -year contract and $ 42 million during the preseason to cover a hole in the gardens, received a suspension of 80 games after just four games of the season. As Acuña did not return until the end of May, the Braves suddenly undergone a hard test in their roster with those of position players. As in 2024, this turned out to be an important problem. Bryan de la Cruz did not hit while replacing Profar and was released on May 1. Jarred Kelenic was even worse and went down after hitting .167 in 24 games. In his despair, they signed Alex Verdugo, who registered a lousy PAHO of .585 in 56 games before being released.
He did not help Harris be one of the worst battery batters in the first half. Acuña returned on May 23 and has been outstanding, but even with its production, the brave gardeners occupy the 17th place in the major leagues in PAHO.
The lack of depth of the Braves was noticed in other areas. Orlando Arcia, after a terrible season in 2024, was the Campocorto of the inaugural day, but once again, he had problems on the plate, he lost his headline against Nick Allen and was released at the end of May. Allen has been an outstanding defender, but among the players with at least 300 appearances to the dish, he has been the worst batter of the big leagues.
What to expect from 2026? The titular outfield will be made up of Acuña, Harris and Profar, but the braves will need a fourth quality gardener, since Kelenic no longer seems like a solution (he has had a bad performance in triple-A). Allen’s defense is stable, but the Braves will undoubtedly seek an offensive improvement in the low season. The free agents options in the campocorto are scarce, except Bo Bichette (who has very bad defensive metrics, in addition to the brave rarely looking for the best free agents), so any improvement could come through an exchange. The Braves could settle for Allen’s defense, except …
Generalized offensive descents
We mention Harris. Although he has rescued to some extent his season with a winning streak since the end of July, he is one of several brave who have not matched what they did in that historic 2023. Note:
Harris
2023: .293/.331/.477, 18 HR 2025: .249/.271/.412, 17 HR
Olson
2023: .283/.389/.604, 54 HR 2025: .271/.367/.460, 21 HR
Albies
2023: .280/.336/.513, 33 HR 2025: .236/.303/.352, 13 HR
Riley
2023: .281/.345/.516, 37 HR 2025: .260/.309/.428, 16 HR
Marcell Ozuna
2023: .274/.346/.558, 40 HR 2025: .227/.358/.404, 20 HR
The 2023 braves scored 947 races, as many in the major leagues from the 2007 New York Yankees and the largest amount for a team in the National League that was not red rockies from the Brooklyn Dodgers of 1953. The Braves of 2025 are on their way to scoring 714 races and are currently tied in 15th position in scored races.
What to expect from 2026? Braves will have to make a deep introspection. After scoring 704 races in 2024, it seems clear that this is the level of the offensive: mediocre. They can count on complete seasons of Acuña and Profar, which should help. The ObP problems of Harris and Albies, two players that are supposed to be key pieces in alignment, are important. Olson is a good batter, but 2023 was the season of his career. Riley has dealt with two consecutive seasons injuries. Ozuna is a free agent and will need to be replaced; Adding a third receiver and letting Drake Baldwin assume most of the shifts to the designated batting bat is a possibility. Unless they seek to change to albies (it will win only $ 7 million in each of the next two seasons) or find a campocorto, this group will look the same.
Bullpen problems
With all the lesions in the rotation, he did not help the bullpen collapse, at least at the beginning. The Raisel Iglesias closer had wasted four salvages and lost five in early June, a key factor for the braves to dig that initial pothole. Although he settled, the bullpen has not been as solid as in the last two seasons, especially last year:
2023
Era: 3.81 (place 12) Probability of added victory: +3.05 (place 14)
2024
Era: 3.32 (third) Probability of added victory: +5.85 (third)
2025
Era: 4.19 (place 20) Probability of Victoria added: +2.52 (Place 16)
What to expect from 2026? Iglesias is a free agent, so the Braves will look for a new closure. Joe Jimenez is a possibility after getting lost 2025 for knee surgery, and Pierce Johnson will probably return with a equipment option of $ 7 million. Other free agents will be Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley and possibly Robert Suárez, who will probably rescind a player option.
VERDICT: Braves can recover in 2026
The main reason to be optimistic about 2026 is that the Braves still have their star players at their best: Olson will be 32 years old and Profar 33, but Acuña is only 28, Riley and Albies will turn 29 and Harris 25. Baldwin looks like a young promising hitter, and Waldrep could be an impact opener. A healthy comes out and a better strider would be helpful to improve rotation.
Despite all the problems and patches in the rotation, the racing differential of the Braves is not so bad, with -19. And sometimes good organizations have bad seasons. The Cincinnati Reds won 102 games in 1970 and more than 95 between 1972 and 1976, but ended up with a 79-83 record in 1971. The St. Louis Cardinals had a winning record every year from 2000 to 2022, except for a record of 78-84 in 2007. The Houston Astros have won the west division of the American League all seasons since 2017, 2017 Except in a year below .500 in 2020 (although, of course, that was the season shortened by COVID-19).
On the other hand, sometimes that first season indicates that the good times have ended: see the Yankees of the mid -60s, the Mets of the late 80s or the Philadelphia Phillies 2013. However, in general, they are old or poorly managed teams, or a combination of both. The Braves are neither of the two. They will need better luck with the health of their pitchers, but the base is here to return to the contest for the playoffs next season.
