The outlook for the South American Qualifiers after 2024 and ahead of 2025

The leader has been the same from the beginning. The best team on the continent in the last five years has known how to transfer the difference it makes in the game to the standings. Argentinatwo-time champion of America and world champion, leads his runner-up by 5 points and, despite a couple of defeats (against Colombia and Paraguay) and having exhibited some irregularity, remains firmly at the top and Their classification will occur in 2025 sooner or later.

Uruguay He is second and managed to overcome the suspension losses with character. They only added 6 points out of 18 in 2024, but closed the year with a good doubleheader against Colombia (they beat them 3-2) and Brazil (they tied 1-1) to stay in a good position. He hopes that 2025 will be a less demanding year and he also sees the World Cup very close.

The surprise of the Qualifiers closes the podium. The team that finished the year the best. Ecuadorwho changed coaches after the Copa América, He incorporated Sebastián Beccacece’s idea very well and added 11 points in the year, although the best was seen in November, when in addition to beating Bolivia in Guayaquil and Colombia in Barranquilla he showed a solid and reliable game. Classifying is a very close goal for La Tri.

Colombia had an irregular 2024. He was one of the best until October, but suffered two losses in November that caused concern. After reaching the final of the Copa América, they lost second place in the table due to two consecutive defeats in November: against Uruguay in Montevideo and Ecuador at home. Before, he had beaten Chile and took revenge on Argentina. Anyway, Nobody doubts that it will be in the United States, Mexico and Canada.

It is complex to talk about Brazil. It wanders in fifth place in the table, but at least It is no longer on the verge of an unusual elimination. He reaped 11 points of the 18 at stake in 2024, although he never showed the good game that is expected. In this contrast, it is getting closer to the World Cup but moving away from expectations.

The other big winner of the final part of the year was Paraguay. The arrival of Gustavo Alfaro revitalized their options in an extraordinary way, not only from the numerical point of view (he added 12 points thanks to an enviable English average), but also from the performance. La Albirrojo showed the character of other times and today is a great favorite to qualify for the World Cup, when at the beginning of the year no one imagined it.

Bolivia closed 2024 in a playoff position, the great revelation of 2024. They won three consecutive games with Óscar Villegas as coach and broke a decades-long streak without away wins. Thus, he finds himself in an unexpected position and in the middle of the race towards the World Cup.

Venezuela He had shown a good level in 2023, but this year he did not win any matches and for now he is outside the zone that grants tickets. Although they scored points against Brazil and Argentina, they lost against direct rivals and now their future is unknown. Everything will be played in 2025.

Chili He “saved” the year in the end, with a victory over Venezuela that allowed him to finish second to last. La Roja and Peru are the least competitive teams in the Qualifiers not only because of their position in the table but also because of their performance. In any case, they still have a chance to recover in 2025.

What will be played in 2025 in the Qualifiers?

The last six rounds will be played in March, June and September. In each month there will be a double day. In the first, Argentina will visit Uruguay and host Brazil, two classics to ensure their passage. The Celeste could do the same (they will also travel to El Alto to play with Bolivia) and perhaps Ecuador, which will clash with Venezuela (home) and Chile (visitor).

Brazil and Colombia want to take a big step and will face each other on March 20 in the home of the five-time champions. Then, the Tricolor will play in Barranquilla against Paraguay. In addition, Albirroja will have a direct rival in its first match of the year: Peru.

In the June doubleheader there may already be several qualifiers, but there will be key duels for tickets: Venezuela-Bolivia, Bolivia-Chile and Venezuela-Peru. Meanwhile, Argentina will challenge Chile in Santiago and Colombia at home. Brazil will seek to define the passage against Ecuador in Quito and then against Paraguay, in one of the big games of the day.

The penultimate date will have the duels: Uruguay-Peru, Colombia-Bolivia, Brazil-Chile, Paraguay Ecuador and Argentina Venezuela. The Qualifiers will end on September 13 with the matches Peru-Paraguay-Venezuela-Colombia, Bolivia-Brazil, Chile-Uruguay and Ecuador-Argentina.

How many points are needed to get a place in the 2026 World Cup?

The qualifiers in South America tend to be the tightest and most competitive, with almost all the teams in the fight for a World Cup spot until the last moments. After playing more than half of the competition, that was confirmed on this occasion.

For the first time, heThe first six will qualify directly for the World Cup and the seventh will have the right to play in the intercontinental playoffs. With 18 points to be played, it is already possible to imagine how much is needed to ensure presence in the US, Mexico and Canada.

Taking into account the history since the current round-robin round-robin format was implemented for the 1998 World Cup in France, the ‘magic number’ to aspire to can be determined.

In the Qualifiers for the 1998 and 2014 World Cups, Brazil was not present as defending champion and host respectively, which modifies the final final number, but the percentage of points obtained can be calculated.

1998 World Cup: Those classified in sixth and seventh place (Ecuador and Uruguay) got 21 points out of 48 played, which gives them a 43.75% effectiveness.

World Cup 2002: The sixth in the table, Colombia, obtained 27 points (the same as the classified Uruguay), that is, a 50 percent. Meanwhile, seventh Bolivia achieved 18 units out of a possible 54, with just one 33% effective.

World Cup 2006: Colombia finished in sixth place with 24 points (44 percent) and Chile did so with 22 units, which represents a 40.7% effectiveness.

World Cup 2010: Ecuador and Colombia added 23 units, equaling positions 6 and 7, with a 42.5% effectiveness.

World Cup 2014: Sixth was Venezuela with 20 points (37 percent) and Peru was 7th with 15 units out of a possible 48, with an effectiveness of just 31.2%.

World Cup 2018: Chile was sixth with 26 points (48 percent) and Paraguay was left behind with 24, which gave them a 44% effective.

World Cup 2022: The sixth place went to Colombia with 23 points (42 percent) and the seventh in Chile with 19, just one 35% effective.

There are several conclusions that can be taken from these numbers that, although they may seem obvious, are still true.

If a team gets 24 points out of the 54 at stake (44 percent), they will have a clear chance of qualifying directly and practically assured of, at least, playing in the playoffs. With 27 (50 percent), it would be enough to achieve direct passage without further ado.

That is to say, Argentina is almost there, although to reach the 27th, which no longer leaves any doubts, it is missing two points. Uruguay, Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil and Paraguay are 10 units or less away from that figure. That is, by harvesting less than half they would achieve the objective.