Rockets: Grading Kevin Durant's contract extension

Kevin PeltonOct 19, 2025, 11:05 p.m.
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- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system

The Rockets renewed Kevin Durant’s contract for two years in exchange for $90 million.

NBA free agency continues with the start of the regular season on Tuesday, as teams add stars and make moves to fill out their rosters for the 2025-26 season.

Among the most impressive signings so far: Myles Turner left the Indiana Pacers, defending Eastern Conference champions, to sign for the Milwaukee Bucks; the max extensions of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaren Jackson Jr.; James Harden’s new two-year contract with the LA Clippers; and the $52.6 million player option for LeBron James with the Los Angeles Lakers; and Kevin Durant’s contract extension with the Houston Rockets.

As more deals are reported, we evaluate the moves and analyze what each means for next season and beyond.

Durant and Rockets agree to extension

The Houston Rockets agreed to a two-year, $90 million extension with forward Kevin Durant.
Qualification: Pass (extensions are graded on a pass/fail scale).

The Rockets remain an exception when it comes to negotiating star players. Most teams in Houston’s situation would have automatically given Durant the highest extension he was eligible for (a projection of more than $120 million over two years).

Instead, the Rockets opted for an unconventional strategy: negotiating directly. This move helped them secure an extension for center Alperen Sengun for less than the maximum 12 months ago, although at the cost of a player option in the final season of the contract (Durant also got an option, although at this point in his career that could benefit Houston in terms of salary flexibility).

The savings in this case are even more considerable. Durant will earn about $15 million less per season than with a max extension. In the NBA era, that’s a crucial difference that contrasts with how the Golden State Warriors (with Jimmy Butler III) and the San Antonio Spurs (De’Aaron Fox) granted max extensions after signing both stars in a trade.

In Butler’s case, that trade paid off, as his addition propelled the Warriors past the Rockets in the first round of last season’s playoffs (he’s also given Golden State an extremely strong projection for 2025-26 in my stats-based model). But aging stars earning top salaries is one reason the league’s most famous players, including Durant, haven’t enjoyed the collective success expected in recent seasons.

Frankly, it can be argued that Durant was no longer deserving of the season maximum at age 38, and possibly at age 39. A combination of factors has made it difficult to detect the inevitable erosion in Durant’s game.

Part of this is due to the explosion of offensive statistics. Durant averaged 28 points with 50% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from 3-point range in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons, finishing second behind LeBron James in the MVP voting in both seasons. At first glance, Durant’s production in the 2024-25 season (26.6 points per game on 53% shooting from the field, including 43% on three-pointers) seems similar, or even better.

But it’s worth remembering that back then NBA teams averaged around 105 points and the league’s average True Shooting Percentage (TS%) was around .530. Last season, those marks were 113.8 and .576, meaning the same raw production is now considerably less special.

Durant remains, without a doubt, one of the most efficient volume scorers in basketball. Among players with a usage rate of 28% or higher in at least 500 minutes last season, only Nikola Jokic surpassed his .642 TS%. Despite this, Durant’s efficiency is now only 11% better than the league average. In his prime, and as recently as the 2020-21 season with the Brooklyn Nets, Durant’s TS% regularly exceeded the league average by at least 16%, peaking at 21% in the 2012-13 season.

Beyond that decline, Durant isn’t assisting his teammates as often. His 5.7 assists per 100 possessions were his lowest since the 2011-12 season, according to Basketball-Reference.com. There is also the issue of durability. Durant is still averaging 36.5 minutes, not far off his max (39.5), but the 2023-24 season was the only time since the Achilles injury that he missed fewer games than the 18 last season due to injuries.

As I explained in my grades for Durant’s transfer, his skills fit especially well in Houston. There’s also reason to believe he could help the Rockets surpass their own, more modest win projection, which is directly tied to the point differential.

Over the past four seasons, no player who has participated in more than 25 games decided by five points or less has a better winning percentage than Durant, whose teams have a record of 40-22 (.645). Last season, the Phoenix Suns were 10-6 in close games with Durant available and 0-3 in those he didn’t play. Winning by small margins helps a team improve its record relative to its point differential.

The completion of Durant’s contract gives the Rockets more clarity on their salary situation for the 2026-27 season. If Durant’s salary is $45 million and Fred VanVleet exercises his $25 million player option after suffering a season-ending ACL tear, Houston will have about $186 million committed to nine players.

That would give the Rockets about $24 million to spend beyond minimum contracts to fill out the roster, staying below the NBA’s second-largest luxury tax, an important consideration. This should be more than enough for Houston to get forward Tari Eason back, either via an extension before Monday’s deadline for first-round picks entering the final season of their rookie contracts, or via restricted free agency next summer.