Prediction of the next five classes of the Hall of Fame

The average percentage between Beltrán’s pairs in the Hall of Fame in the year before his choice was 65.9%, so he has already exceeded that figure. All their peers that reached their level of support by 2024 were finally selected by the BBWAA.

In general, nine of the 30 pairs of Beltrán arrived at the Hall of Fame through a committee, which is the only thing that slows the probabilities mentioned above. Among those who had to wait for a selection of the committee were Richie Ashburn, Alan Trammell and, more recently, Dick Allen. None of them reached the level of support that Beltrán has.

To highlight among the pairs of Beltrán is Edgar Martínez, who obtained 70.4% support in his ninth year on the ballot. In the tenth year, he entered. It was the one who approached the figure of Beltrán. The six companions who obtained between 70% and 75% (Martínez, Craig Biggio, Paul Waner, Bill Terry, Mike Piazza and Vladimir Guerrero Mr.) entered the following year.

The only thing that makes one reflect are the voters who could still take into account the signal theft scandal of the Houston Astros against Beltrán. According to the tracker of the Hall of Fame, he lost 11.2% of the publicly recognized ballots until the final count. Will it continue like this? If so, will it be enough to keep Beltrán in Limbo?

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Andruw Jones

Find: 151
Pare count: 18
Pairs in the Hall of Fame: 15 (83%)
Possibilities of entering the room: 92%

With 66.2%, Jones is on the same ship as Beltrán, but Jones’s margin of error is much lower. Not only has more support to attract, but Jones has only two more opportunities to reach the room. This was his eighth year.

Even so, there are only three omissions in the hall among the Jones’ pairs group, two of which are clear omissions, in my opinion. This is Ken Boyer and Bobby Grich (with salt, signing like the other pair of Jones that is not in Cooperstown). Boyer reached a maximum of only 25.5% during his 15 years on the writers’ ballot. Grich and side were discarded after an opportunity. Boyer and Grich are cases for a future era committee.

Two good precedents for Jones among their peer group are Lou Boudreau and Simmons. Boudreau hit 64.1% in its ninth year of eligibility and then entered the next cycle. Simmons reached 60.3% in the seventh year and then entered during the eighth.

The Jones’ pairs group includes six members who participated in the first voting round, the most recent of which was their teammate in the Atlanta Braves, Chipper Jones. Twelve of the 15 pairs of Jones in the Hall of Fame entered through the BBWAA. Those who had to wait for the team team were the stars for a long time Home Run Baker, Dan Brouthers and Cap Anson.

2027

CHASE UTIY

Find: 156
Pare count: 20
Pairs in the Hall of Fame: 20 (100%)
Possibilities of entering the room: 96%

Until the final results were published on Tuesday, I was sure I would be able to cross the threshold in 2026. Now I am not so sure. Utley obtained a 52% solid in publicly shared votes, but obtained 25% disconcert in covert votes. His final count was just under 40%.

My system gives a lot of weight to the maximum values ​​(five and ten years measures are included), so I must assume that disconnection is simply that UTley does not meet some of the old milestones of standard count statistics.

Even if Upoley becomes a famous cause among experts in the room, it seems that he will take a couple of years to get where he should go.

The writers do not always agree with the players of the Electo Elite Pares Group. While the 20 of their closest matches are in the room, five of them entered through the Committee. But if we ignore the dusty characters of the nineteenth century, the writers only overlooked Johnny Mize.

Others had to wait a while, since the average income year was the fifth year on the ballot for this group. Duke Snider and Harry Heilmann had to wait until 11, which is not even an option.

Time is on the side of Utley. The average support obtained after the year 2 for your group is 44.2%, which would be sufficient if it adds to its current total. I’m still sure that Utley will enter. I just don’t think it’s next year.

2028

Albert Pujols

Find: 174
Pare count: 18
Pairs in the Hall of Fame: 18 (100%)
Possibilities of entering the room: 100%

The Find of Pujols is at a level where I had to expand the range to obtain a decent sample of its peers, because there have not been many players so good.

The 18 pairs of Pujols are in the living room, as expected. All but two entered through the normal process of the BBWAA, and the two omissions were the most special cases: Lou Gehrig and Roberto Clemente.

Of the rest, 13 were selections in the first vote. Two (Tris Speaker and Nap Lajoie) had to wait until the second year, but that was in the initial stages of the room. The others who waited a little more were Eddie Collins (year 4), Mel Ott (year 3) and Jimmie Foxx (year 6).

Pujols will not have to wait. It should be a unanimous choice, but, well, you know how that is.

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Félix Hernández

Find: 141
Pare count: 37
Pairs in the Hall of Fame: 10 (27%)
Possibilities of entering the room: 47%

The selection of Sabathia in his debut on the ballot was a first step in what should be an important rethink of how to evaluate candidate launchers to the Hall of Fame in the future. Hernández, who obtained 20.6% support in his second year of eligibility, faces an uncertain path.

Of the 10 companions of ‘King Félix’ in the Hall of Fame, only five entered through the BBWAA, the most recent of which was John Smoltz in 2015. Smoltz and Dennis Eckersley were chosen on the first ballot, but the three others had to wait.

They were Ted Lyons (year 9), Early Wynn (year 4) and Herb Pennock (year 7), all of which launched in very different pitching contexts.

For me, Hernández does not reach the average of the candidates for the Hall of Fame in any of my career measurements, but it is not out of the rank of some who have entered.

I think that Hernández’s 10 years of excellence will stand out more and more as we get more used to a set of evolving standards for opening launchers. My system believes that Hernández is below 50-50, but by 2028, we could see his career under a new light.

2029

Find: 151
Pare count: 30
Pairs in the Hall of Fame: 26 (97%)
Possibilities of entering the room: 95%

Miggy’s numbers in his hits career let his metrics lower, but he is still a member of the Hall of Fame in the first vote, without a doubt, and a candidate to win unanimous support.

There is more in a player than the War. Cabrera exceeded 3,000 hits and 500 homers, hit .306 in his career and won four batting titles, a triple crown and two prizes to the most valuable player. It is inside.

For the purposes of this system, it is worth pointing out the omissions, but they are practically the same as for Beltrán. A new one in the case of Cabrera is Kenny Lofton.

Lofton needs an exhaustive reconsideration the next time it appears to an era vote. Perhaps nobody suffered more for the accumulation of votes during the tumultuous years in which players were displaced by candidates related to steroid consumption. Lofton, despite how good it was, was one and left in the voting process.

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Find: 149
Pare count: 15
Pairs in the Hall of Fame: 9 (60%)
Possibilities of entering the room: 79%

The list of six omissions in the small group of Greinke pairs is fascinating: Urban Shocker, Wilbur Wood, Johan Santana, Rick Reuschel, David Cone and Dave Stieb.

They are very different pitchers that launched very different standards. The War frame tries to compare them under the same umbrella, but leads some strange bed pairs.

As with Hernández, I see that Greinke’s career only grows in acclamation as the years go by. It is in the generation that could be the last of the battle openers of yesteryear – Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander – and although Greinke could be at the end of any list with those boys, he is on the list.

That makes him a member of the Hall of Fame in his first vote. It is a bit crazy that Greinke’s career will end with 21 strikeouts below 3,000. It is the kind of things that would make a type of numbers like me start the hair.

2030

Joey Votto

Find: 149
Pare count: 27
Pairs in the Hall of Fame: 23 (85%)
Possibilities of entering the room: 88%

This would be the second time that Votto appears on the ballot, which is only because the injuries prevented him from making his debut in the regular season with the Toronto Blue Jays last season. Otherwise, 2030 would be the first time that Votto appears on the ballot. And it is still a single team player, technically, which is worth pointing for historical purposes.

Votto ended up being a .294 batter in his career with 356 homers and 2,135 hits. Therefore, it is a bit below in the old standards, which is not a reason to leave it out, but here we are doing forecasts. I suspect that you will need a year on the ballot before reaching the top, and then we can all wait for a lot to know what it says in your acceptance speech.

Only 14 of Votto’s companions in the Hall of Fame entered through the BBWAA. We have mentioned two of the four who did not enter at all: side and loft. Here are two new names: Graig Nettles and Jim Edmonds.

Edmonds is another player who, although he is not a member of the Hall of Fame, has enough arguments to not have been chosen at once. But that was what happened in 2016.