Olney: Ranking the Top 10 MLB Teams Currently
Where are the Yankees? What typical American League team failed to make the list? Here is the current situation almost two months into the offseason.
The market of free agents| and exchanges of MLB is slowing down during the holidays, as it usually does in the third week of December. Maybe in the coming weeks Nolan Arenado will leave or Corbin Burnes will choose his next team, but executives and agents report that the volume of talk is decreasing, even with dozens and dozens and dozens of free agents still unsigned.
“It will pick up after the New Year,” said one evaluator, “and more players will find their next contract.”
While that happens, teams will continue to fill holes as their rosters near finalization before the start of spring training. The Yankees will add another hitter, probably right-handed, as they recover from the departure of Juan Soto. The Mets will continue to fill out their roster depth around their new superstar, Soto. The Dodgers will probably get a reliever, the Padres will continue to refine their roster and someone will try to get Luis Castillo from the Mariners.
With many transactions still to be made before the 2025 season begins in Japan on March 18, let’s take stock of the situation. These are the 10 best current teams in baseball.
Teams have started meeting with Roki Sasakiand if the 23-year-old right-hander chooses the Dodgers (who would likely be the betting favorites among executives), his 2025 rotation would likely line up like this: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sasaki, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw and Shohei Ohtani, which would be ridiculous.
But even if they don’t land Sasaki, the Dodgers will still be formidable favorites to become the first team since the 1998-2000 Yankees to win back-to-back championships because of the extraordinary depth of their lineup, with Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in the top and Max Muncy, Will Smith and newcomer Michael Conforto batting somewhere in the bottom half. They tried (and failed) to get Devin Williams, but it makes sense that they add at least one more power arm to their bullpen.
So far, the Phillies’ long-awaited makeover hasn’t happened. They signed Jordan Romano to the bullpen, but they still need more help, and the trade market hasn’t been jumping around looking for third baseman Alec Bohm; some evaluators speculate this is due to concerns about his defense. The rotation, on the other hand, will be deep again and the lineup is still loaded: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, etc. The Phillies were widely considered the top team for most of 2024 and should threaten the Dodgers for that spot again next summer.
But they could be busy before the start of their season. Schwarber, JT Realmuto and Ranger Suarez are entering the final seasons of their respective contracts, and rival general managers have quietly predicted that the president of baseball operations David Dombrowski will do something big before the start season 2025.
The Braves struggled to the playoffs last season before being quickly eliminated by the Padres, and in some ways, no team will add more players to its club from late 2024 to early 2025 than Atlanta, with the expected return of Ronald Acuña Jr. and, at some point, Spencer Strider. While the addition of those stars recovering from major injuries will be a big boost, the Braves, who have been relatively quiet so far this winter, still have needs in their rotation, bullpen (at least one more arm) and outfield.
The Yankees management’s response to the loss of Soto has been swift and bold, reflecting general manager Brian Cashman’s belief that the team would be fine even if Soto left. Cody Bellinger, the team’s most recent addition, made it clear that he feels completely comfortable with the place the team chooses. manager Aaron Boone to use it: left field, center field or first base. That will largely depend on what the Yankees do over the winter.
The rotation appears to be as good or better than any other in the American League: Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Clarke Schmidt, Carlos Rodón and Luis Gil, with Marcus Stroman also playing some role. But they still need help around Aaron Judge, who, without Soto, won’t have as much lineup protection as he did last season, which was the best of his career.
As even Dodgers players have acknowledged, the Padres came closer than anyone to eliminating Los Angeles during the 2024 playoffs, and that combined with Jackson Merrill’s continued potential means the Padres could move higher on this list. But they still need help as they manage payroll, so other teams say San Diego is willing to listen to offers for Dylan Cease and Luis Arráez (although some rival executives don’t think Arráez will move).
The Mets will inevitably be considered one of the winners of the winter after their record deal with Soto, who appears to fit perfectly into manager Carlos Mendoza’s lineup hitting behind Francisco Lindor. Mark Vientos appears to be the one to hit behind the two MVP candidates and take advantage of opportunities to drive in runs.
But there are side effects, it seems, of the Mets signing the most expensive player in baseball history, confirmed in their current projected rotation:
• Kodai Senga, if he is healthy.
• Frankie Montas, who continues to be viewed as a high-potential pitcher despite his 4.84 ERA last season.
• David Peterson, who improved down the stretch last season.
• Clay Holmes, if he can make a successful transition into the rotation by repeating his pitch more consistently.
• Paul Blackburn, who had a 4.66 ERA in 14 starts last season.
Other teams hope that David Stearnsthe Mets’ head of baseball operations, continue doing what he has often done in the past and add depth; in fact, their pitching staff at the end of last season was much better than it was at the beginning. But the bar for success in National League East Division will be high again and the status of the current group needs to be improved.
Lest anyone forget, the Guardians finished one round away from reaching the World Series after earning a bye in the first round with one of the two best records in the American League last season. Once again, they should have an overwhelming bullpen, behind a rotation that will almost certainly be better than the fragile 2024 starting corps. Assuming Shane Bieber’s rehab from the tommy john surgery continues to do well, he’ll probably be part of the rotation at some point next summer.
The Orioles might be baseball’s biggest mystery right now. On the one hand, they have a lot of high-level talent (Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser) and, in theory, they are right in the middle of their window for championship contention, after accumulating 101 wins in 2023 and make the playoffs last season.
But Corbin Burnestheir ace in 2024, is in free agency and there are no expectations of him returning to Baltimore, considering his high price tag. Without him, the Orioles’ rotation is surprisingly thin. There is still help available on the market, from trade candidates like Cease and Jesús Luzardo to free agents like Jack Flaherty, but they are expensive and, to date, there is little sign that the ownership change earlier this year has changed the team’s work philosophy on spending in free agency. Baltimore has exactly one player under contract for 2026: newly signed Tyler O’Neill, who signed a three-year, $49.5 million deal to effectively replace Anthony Santander.
With no long-term obligations beyond O’Neill, the Orioles should have the long-term financial flexibility to make changes.
But… will they?
It may be surprising not to see the Houston Astros in this top 10, but look at a recent trend in their season-to-season win totals: 95 in 2021, 106 in 2022, 90 in 2023 and 88 in 2024.
So far this offseason, the Astros’ talks with Alex Bregman have stalled, due to the gap between what he wants and what Houston owner Jim Crane has offered (in the same range as the Matt Chapman’s six-year, $156 million contract with the Giants). Perhaps most significantly, the Astros traded their best position player, Kyle Tucker, rather than trying to pay him what will be his future market value.
So there’s an opportunity in the American League West, and the Mariners could be the team to take advantage of it, after finishing with a disappointing 85 wins in 2024. At the very least, they should have an excellent rotation, even if they trade Castillo to capitalize on his value in the rising starting pitching market. But one way or another, the Mariners need offensive help. Does that mean signing Christian Walker to bolster the middle of the order? Will that translate into a more consistent season from Julio Rodriguez? We’ll see.
The Royals were in desperate need of a leadoff hitter, someone who could take advantage of the opportunities created by hitting against Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, and they acted quickly, trading Brady Singer for Jonathan India. However, they need one more hitter to emerge in the bottom half of their lineup. But look, 2024 was no coincidence.
The best of the rest: Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox
