NBA Playoffs: 6 big questions to pay attention to right now
However, rivals believe Boston’s young players will be tested.
“There will be a bad quarter or two — and it probably won’t happen until the second round — where their young players will show their inexperience,” said an Eastern executive. “They probably have enough (star power) to save the day once or twice, but how they respond to adversity will tell us a lot about how good this roster really is.”
Bontemps: Boston’s other unknown is at the center position. Neemias Queta is a worthy candidate for the Most Improved Player award, but his potential playoff matchups include Jalen Duren (Detroit Pistons), Jarrett Allen (Cleveland Cavaliers), and Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson (New York Knicks). The Celtics’ backup centers—Luka Garza and Nikola Vucevic—are both spacers, but they raise questions defensively.
“Can they survive with Queta, Garza and Vuc (at center)?” asked a Western Conference assistant coach. “I think they are the team to beat, because I have already seen them achieve it.”
Windhorst: The Cleveland Cavaliers had one of their best halves in recent weeks on Wednesday, when they beat the Atlanta Hawks, a team that entered the night with a record of 18 wins in its last 21 games. They held Atlanta to 41% shooting in the second half, and Donovan Mitchell and James Harden were fantastic in a third quarter in which they scored 44 points. Evan Mobley had a great game, standing out in both scoring and rebounding.
However, that game was striking because the Cavs allowed 67 points in the first half; This is part of a regression suffered over the last two or so months, which has seen his defensive efficiency drop to 17th place since the All-Star break. Earlier this week, they allowed the Memphis Grizzlies to score 29 three-pointers—a record number in the NBA—a fact that highlights the shortcomings of their perimeter defense, which has suffered enormously this season. Since the break, Cleveland is allowing 42% accuracy on corner 3-pointers, ranking 20th in the league, on par with many of the teams that are tanking.
The Cavs are 19-6 when Harden plays, but their defensive difficulties and constant lineup changes have made it difficult to place complete confidence in the team.
“Harden is a master on offense, and both he and Mitchell present an absolutely overwhelming challenge for any opponent, night after night,” said an Eastern Conference scout. “However, Harden has been in better physical shape on other occasions and, for some reason, the referees no longer award him as many fouls as they used to. And it shows on defense; sometimes both he and Mitchell end up being completely outplayed at the back.”
Bontemps: On the one hand, Cleveland can hope that the return of Allen — who has been dealing with knee issues in recent weeks — will help remedy its defense’s struggles.
On the other hand, relying on players like Max Strus or Dean Wade to guard elite big forwards and ball handlers during the playoffs could prove to be an extremely difficult task.
“Allen has missed a lot of games, and he is a fundamental piece of the team’s identity,” said a scout who recently watched a Cavaliers game. “They’ll get an extra boost because it’s the playoffs and everyone is fully focused, but they still have to manage Donovan and James…
“Strus and Wade are not high enough, and Keon Ellis is too short.”
Windhorst: Harden averages 5.8 free throws per game in Cleveland, a figure lower than the 8.5 he averaged in the 44 games he played with the Clippers this season. The Cavs rank fourth in the league in offensive efficiency since they completed the trade for him.
“I understand the reasons why they traded Harden, and I think it actually put them in a better position,” an Eastern Conference executive said. “But there will be times when they’re better off having (Sam) Merrill on the court to defend than Harden. I think they’ll go as far as Donovan’s scoring ability will allow them, and that’s something we’ve seen before with their teams.”
Mitchell has averaged 28 points over 63 playoff games, recording seven postseason games with 40 or more points and three with 50 or more points. However, they have never managed to reach the Conference Finals.
Can Jalen Duren be the second option for a Finals-contending team?
Bontemps: Duren, along with MVP candidate Cade Cunningham, has been a key factor in Detroit’s enormous success during its rise to first place in the Eastern Conference. But can this center – who makes his All-Star debut this year – score enough to become the second offensive option for a team that has yet to achieve any success in the playoffs?
“I like Duren,” said one Western Conference executive. “The idea of offering him the maximum contract (this summer) terrifies me, but the kid is a real beast. He captures all the rebounds, he is capable of defending and his scoring ability has far exceeded everything I would have expected from him at the beginning of the season.”
Windhorst: When Cunningham was sidelined due to a collapsed lung, the Pistons — a team lacking in playmaking — began leaning on Duren to generate offense. Coach JB Bickerstaff designed plays in which Duren acted as the initiator, receiving the ball at the top of the zone; a facet of his game that very few knew he possessed. His usage rate and assist average skyrocketed, and the Pistons’ offense really benefited.
In the 12 games prior to Cunningham’s injury, Duren had a total of 14 assists. In a stretch of nine games played without Cunningham, Duren averaged four assists per game. This is a novel resource that the Pistons could incorporate into their game plan for the playoffs.
Bontemps: That said, teams have historically needed a high-level second ball handler to go far in the postseason; such was the case for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams in Oklahoma City last year. That option is not currently available to Detroit, which means they will have to take an approach based on collective responsibility.
“When the main player monopolizes such a high volume of play, is the rest easier?” asked the Western executive. “That helps to a certain extent. But I’m not sure it’s enough for the responsibility to fall solely on him.”
Is the rebound in San Antonio’s shooting after the All-Star game real?
Windhorst: Early in the season, even when the Spurs got off to a spectacular start fueled by Victor Wembanyama’s ability to attack the rim, the usual countermeasure was to saturate the paint to force three-point shots. It was a sensible strategy: the Spurs don’t have an abundance of long-range shooters, and Wembanyama may be tempted to take lower-percentage shots. Through the first 50 games of the season, the Spurs ranked 17th in three-pointers made per game and 22nd in shooting percentage.
“I keep seeing you media guys saying why the Spurs aren’t going to win the title,” said a vice president of an Eastern Conference team. “They would do better to list the reasons why they could win it.”
Alright, here’s a compelling reason: since the All-Star break, the Spurs have experienced a spectacular uptick in their long-range shooting. They are shooting over 38% — which places them in third place in the league in that period — and have raised their average to 14.9 three-pointers made per game, falling just short of the top 5 in the league.
Bontemps: It’s one thing to make those shots in February and March; It’s quite another to score them in late April, May and June, especially when this roster largely lacks playoff experience.
It has been 30 years since a team in a similar situation reached the NBA Finals without having had a good campaign in the previous year’s postseason: the 1995 Orlando Magic, led by Shaquille O’Neal and Anfernee Hardaway. There are numerous similarities between both teams and, perhaps, events will unfold just as they did that year for the Magic and their young stars.
However, Saturday’s exciting game against the Denver Nuggets — a game in which Keldon Johnson, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle were a disastrous 0-for-16 from the field — offers a clear perspective on the approach their playoff rivals might take.
“Seeing young guys go into the playoffs for the first time is a totally different experience; it’s a challenge of a different nature,” said an assistant coach for a Western Conference team. “It will be interesting to see how those guys handle the situation.
“But maybe Victor can figure it all out on his own.”
Can Stephen Curry propel Golden State to two road wins?
Bontemps: The immediate response from the league experts I spoke to was, “no.” Obviously, it’s been a brutal season for the Golden State Warriors from an injury perspective; This includes the loss of Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody for the rest of the season, in addition to the drama surrounding Jonathan Kuminga during the first half of the season, and the absences of Kristaps Porzingis and Curry for much of the second half.
“I’m not sure they’ll even win the 9th vs. 10th place game, much less both,” noted one Western Conference scout. “It’s one thing when Steph goes on a roll playing at home, with those fans roaring behind him. That’s a real, tangible factor.
“It’s different when they play away from home and he has to do it in another arena. That same factor is just not there.”
Windhorst: Much of the attention that falls on the Warriors is, naturally, focused on Curry, a player capable of changing the course of a game in every way. However, the Warriors defense has suffered a lot in this final stretch of the season, while Steve Kerr tried to manage the injury issue.
“Our data analysts will tell me that 3-point success often depends on luck, and that it’s simply a matter of shot quality,” noted one West scout. “Well, the Warriors must be having terrible luck, because the last few times I’ve seen them, they’re destroying them with three-pointers from the corners.”
The numbers – something truly alarming for Golden State – confirm this impression. Since the All-Star break, the Warriors are allowing their rivals 46% success on three-pointers from the corners (the worst mark in the entire league) and an astonishing 57% on three-pointers from the right corner. But the situation is also critical in the paint, since in the last two months their opponents have scored with 71% effectiveness in the restricted area, which is the fifth worst defensive record in the league.
It’s difficult to look at the Warriors’ current form and argue that they are ready to go on a meaningful winning streak.
