MLB Offseason: Best and worst free agency trades so far
What are our favorite free agent moves, and which ones left us scratching our heads?
As we approach the final days before the calendar turns to 2025 following a flurry of free agent moves around the holidays, it’s a perfect time to take stock of what we’ve seen so far.
Just over $2.5 billion in guarantees have already been handed out to free agents this winter. Another billion will likely be spent on a roster of remaining players that includes Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and Jack Flaherty, while Roki Sasaki’s early free agency will heat up in January.
With most of the big offseason moves behind us as we wait for those remaining to find homes, here are some of my favorite, and least favorite, moves so far.
Favorite moves
Gleyber Torres, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Contract: One year, $15 million
Torres had a good case for a multi-year deal after a strong second half fueled by a reduced strikeout rate, along with a strong playoff performance and hitting free agency with two full seasons remaining in which he will still be 20 years old. He’s just one year removed from a 3.6 WAR season and ended up signing for more than $5 million below the qualifying offer.
There’s also a chance the Tigers could get a draft pick if he leaves next winter after turning down the qualifying offer, assuming he has a big season in Detroit. Torres has every motivation to make a run for a year to land a big multi-year deal next winter, and being in a lower-profile environment than the Bronx might be a better fit for him. He has positional versatility, but he’s been regressing in that area lately, in addition to his mental lapses. Righting the ship defensively while hitting like he has in the second half all season could bring him a big guarantee next winter, with Detroit getting great value for this one-year deal in the process.
Walker Buehler, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Contract: One year, $21.05 million
Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Contract: Two years, $26 million
I’ll group these two pitchers together, as both have shown frontline ability recently and were acquired for small guarantees.
Buehler will probably be more of a No. 3 or No. 4 starter than a team ace going forward (I think he’ll settle for No. 3), though his 2024 season line shows he was still adjusting to a new reality with a material less dynamic crude oil. He gave a glimpse of that promising new self down the stretch and in the playoffs, and I think Boston is getting a good deal for a mid-rotation starter when some players of that caliber are demanding close to $100 million this winter. Bieber will miss about half the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, so Cleveland is paying something like $17 million per year for a year and a half after his return. His velocity had been on the decline (average speed 94.3 mph in 2020, 91.5 mph in 2022), which was also related to his effectiveness. In his two starts before breaking out in 2024, his velocity increased (92.5 mph) and so did his overall material and effectiveness. Even if he regresses a bit below that level, a short-term deal for less than $20 million per year is a good price for a stable mid-rotation player with potential for more.
Garrett Crochet, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Change: Acquired from White Sox for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, Wikelman Gonzalez
Crochet was the most popular name on the winter trade market, as a pitcher close to an ace — if not an ace — with a contract well below market for the next two seasons, which is also the window to secure him an extension before he hits free agency or taking a compensatory pick when he does.
Boston put together a solid package that fits what the White Sox needed, but I don’t think it includes a future star. Boston’s success in scouting and development in recent years allowed it to make a deal like this without trading one of its top prospects. As the Red Sox appear to be focused on building their roster, solid controllable players are needed to put together a sustainable contender, with stars being key variables, and Crochet is one of them. Other deals I liked: I also saw a trend of strong values on one-year deals for free agent position players, including Paul Goldschmidt, Michael Conforto and Carson Kelly.
Least favorite moves
Frankie Montas, RHP, New York Mets
Contract: Two years, $34 million
Unlike the position player market, where teams have been able to find value in short-term deals, the price of starting pitchers is sky-high this offseason. These three moves are manifestations of that reality, which has reached a new level even since last offseason. These are just a few of the moves that could be highlighted as examples of the need to overpay for starting pitchers, which has come up often in my conversations with scouts, executives and even agents.
Montas was a 4 WAR starter in 2021 when he pitched 187 innings, a career high, but has settled into around 150 innings in recent years (despite shoulder surgery that cost him almost all of 2023). His 2024 campaign was poor in terms of innings: a 4.84 ERA, a 4.71 ERA and a 4.71 FIP, while his walks rose. You could argue that his above-average stuff could get him back to his old level with better control, but he’ll be turning 32 soon and I’m not sure he’ll ever have a sub-4.00 ERA again while pitching 150+ innings in a season. .
Nate Eovaldi, right-handed pitcher, Texas Rangers
Contract: 3 years, $75 million
Eovaldi is a really good, playoff-proven pitcher who I thought would get two years at a higher average annual value when I projected a two-year, $45 million deal heading into the winter. He got a third year, with the entire contract at an even higher AAV. Eovaldi turns 35 in February and I’m confident Texas will get at least one more solid season out of him, but I’m not sure I should count on much more than that.
Alex Cobb, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Contract: One year, $15 million
Cobb is another solid pitcher who just received more money this winter than many thought he was worth at this point. He is 37 years old and only made three appearances in the 2024 regular season due to hip surgery. He also has another hip procedure and Tommy John surgery on his resume, so injuries are starting to become a concern. His strikeout rate and velocity were still above average in 2022, but the hope now is that he has enough health and effectiveness for a finish as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter after two seasons that suggest he could land in the You ride in 2024.
