Juan Soto to the Mets: the rating of the record contract of $765M
Juan Soto is heading to the other side of New York with a historic 15-year contract. Here’s what you need to know about the movement.
A new era in New York baseball begins in 2025: Juan Soto has agreed to a record 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. The New York Yankees have long dominated the headlines in the Big Apple, with more success on the field, more star power in the lineup and bigger names signed in free agency. Even in 2024, when the Mets made a run to the National League Championship Series, the Yankees did better, reaching their first World Series since 2009.
But now Soto, coming off a season with the Yankees in which he hit .288/.419/.568 with 41 home runs, 128 runs scored and a third-place finish in American League Most Valuable Player voting, will take his lethal hits Queens, where he has a chance to become the best hitter in Mets history. If Soto hits like he did in 2024, that’s not hyperbole. His 178 OPS+ last season surpasses the Mets’ record (169, set by Howard Johnson in 1989). His 147 runs created would surpass David Wright’s 146 in 2006. His 129 walks are more than any Mets player has ever had. Even his 41 home runs would place him tied for third place, behind two seasons of Pete Alonso.
It’s a move that changes the franchise: at just 26 years old, Soto was not only the best free agent this offseason, but one of the most sought after in history. He brings his best offense and swagger to an organization that is still trying to find its way as a consistent winner and World Series contender. The Yankees haven’t had a losing season since 1992, while the Mets have had 18 in that span. The Yankees have 25 playoff appearances since 1995; the Mets have just seven. The Mets have had a better record than the Yankees only four times since 1993.
In fact, until Steve Cohen finalized his purchase of the team in November 2020, the Mets had long been under their weight, never having a top-10 payroll from 2012 to 2019 under the Wilpon family.
Under Cohen’s direction, over the past two seasons, they have had the two highest payrolls in Major League history. But still, the Mets have never signed a free agent of Soto’s caliber. Of the five previous nine-figure free agent contracts in franchise history, three were extensions: Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz since Cohen took over and Yoenis Cespedes under the direction of Wilpon.
Yes, the Mets signed Francisco Lindor with a massive $341 million extension, but that was before he hit free agency. They also signed Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander with record average annual salary contracts, but those were short-term deals for pitchers who were in the latter stages of their Hall of Fame careers. Carlos Beltrán was the last superstar free agent in his prime to choose the Mets, in 2005, but not even he had been as dominant a hitter as Soto, whose 7.9 WAR in 2024 surpasses anything Beltrán had done when he arrived. free agency (Beltrán had an 8.2 WAR season with the Mets in 2006). Soto was an immediate sensation when he reached the majors at just 19 years old, posting a .406 OBP and .923 OPS as a rookie with the Washington Nationals.
The following season, he was a postseason hero, helping the Nationals win the World Series (he hit .333 with three home runs in the seven-game series victory over the Houston Astros). In the shortened 2020 season, he hit .351 and led the majors in OPS. In 2021, he hit .313 with a .465 OBP and led NL position players in WAR. After a down season in 2022 that saw him traded to the Sandiego Padres (he still finished with a .401 OBP), he bounced back in 2023 and then, after another trade to the Yankees, had his best season with that WAR, the highest of his career.
In this era of low batting averages and low on-base percentages, Soto’s eye at the plate has allowed him to consistently reach base more than 40% of the time: he has posted an OBP over .400 in every season. of his career. Since his debut season in 2018, he leads the majors with a .421 OBP (only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge are also over .400) and is second only to Judge in adjusted batting runs, with Freddie Freeman in a distant third place. If you look at the last four seasons, even with the emergence of top-order hitters like Shohei Ohtani and Yordan AlvarezSoto remains first in OBP and second, behind Judge, in batting runs. If his former teammate is the best hitter in the game, Soto has a solid No. 2 spot.
No, Soto isn’t exactly Ted Williams, the player he’s been compared to since he was a teenager, but he’s clearly a generational hitter, one of the best of all time through age 25 (he’s first in walks, tied with Albert Pujols for seventh in home runs and fifth since World War II in OPS+, behind only Frank Thomas, Trout, Pujols and Dick Allen). His list of comparable hitters through age 25 on Baseball-Reference.com consists of inner circle Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers: Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Trout, Eddie Mathews , Miguel Cabrera, Mickey Mantle.
More importantly for a contract of this size, Soto’s skill set projects to age extremely well. Consider these various Statcast metrics, along with how his 2024 numbers compare among all hitters: expected batting average, expected wOBA, and walk rate (100th percentile); Hard hit rate, expected slugging, and barrel rate (99th percentile); average chase rate and exit velocity (98th percentile); and bat speed (94th percentile). While it should never be said that a $765 million contract is a completely safe investment (see Griffey or Trout as examples of superstar players who struggled to stay healthy into their 30s), Soto’s bat is as safe as it can be. (and he still has four seasons left before he turns 30). Yes, his defense could eventually push him into a full-time designated hitter role midway through the deal, but even then, he still projects as an Edgar Martinez type, a hitter who could post .400 on-base percentages well into his late teens. thirty
At least in these first seasons, the Mets hope for the best version of Soto, the MVP-type player we saw in 2024. They will add him to a lineup that, for the moment, remains without Alonso, who is a free agent:
SS Francisco Lindor (ambidextrous)
LF Brandon Nimmo (left-handed)
RF Juan Soto (z)
3B Mark Vientos (right)
1B???
C Francisco Alvarez (d)
DH Starling Mars (d)
2B Jeff McNeil (z)
CF Tyrone Taylor (z)
The Mets finished seventh in the majors in runs scored last season. Adding Soto, who created 54 more runs than Alonso, could push the Mets into the top three or four, especially if Vientos can stay in the lineup all season and Alvarez has a breakout year. If Soto is added and Alonso (or another first baseman like Christian Walker or a third baseman like Alex Bregman with Vientos moving to first), the Mets could fight for the Major League lead in runs scored. Given Cohen’s willingness to spend, they still have plenty of room on the roster to bring back Alonso, as well as a top-line starter like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried and a couple of relievers.
Since Cohen took over, the Mets have spent enormous sums on payroll just to compete with the mediocre roster Cohen inherited. With highly respected executive David Stearns taking over as president of baseball operations ahead of the 2024 season, the Mets now have deep pockets in addition to the most stable and capable front office they have had in years. The minor league system has also improved. The hiring of Soto feels like a new era for Mets baseball, an era that dates back to the mid-1980s, when the Mets were consistent winners and New York glory.
As for the grade, it’s hard to give it an “A” despite all the praise that has been given to Soto. While his relative youth minimizes some of the risk of a long-term mega contract like this, it does not minimize all of the risk. Since 2021, Soto’s adjusted batting runs (the estimated number of runs a hitter creates compared to an average hitter) have fluctuated from plus-57 to plus-39 to plus-49 to plus-64 last season. Every 10 races translates to about one win, meaning there’s a difference of about two wins between Soto at his best and a slightly inferior version.
Yes, of course, it’s more important to emphasize 2025 and 2026 rather than worry about 2035 and 2036, and Soto gives the Mets a better chance to win now. Still… well, it’s a lot of money. And Soto, as good as he is, is no Ohtani. In his three seasons before hitting free agency, Ohtani averaged 9.5 WAR per season. Soto, in his last three seasons, has averaged 6.3 WAR. Soto just had his best season, and Ohtani, without even pitching, was even more valuable. (That doesn’t even take into account the additional income Ohtani brings in that no other player can match.) Soto is not the complete player that Mookie Betts has been in his prime or that Mike Trout was it when he was healthy or what Bobby Witt Jr. It’s now. However, Soto’s contract that starts with a “7” trumps anything those players signed (especially considering Ohtani’s deferred money). The Mets must do everything they can to win now.
Grade: B+
