How should Blue Jays focus the free agency of Guerrero Jr.?
Increasingly, Blue Jays is placed in a bad position to negotiate the extension of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The way in which the Toronto Blue Jays handled the situation of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could be better summed up with the mantra of the Roman philosopher Cicero: “It is lost more due to indecision than by wrong decision.” Step by step, the Jays have been placed in a terrible position, with the player having all the influence.
But Guerrero still uses his uniform with a season ahead until he reaches the free agency, which gives the Jays a last chance to build a roof towards a future that would otherwise be involved in darkness. The team should meet him, apologize for wasting time and shake the white flag in the negotiations.
Last week, the deadline that Guerrero established for a contract extension, arrived and passed without an agreement being reached. Assuming that Guerrero is not asking the Blue Jays to match the contract of 765 million dollars of Juan Soto, they should simply say that what they said not a week ago.
Allowing Guerrero to arrive at the free agency does not make sense given the management that Jays have made of his career and his contractual situation. Again and again, Toronto’s leadership postponed a difficult decision about Guerrero, and now the team has to pay the price. The only question is whether the cost will be Guerrero’s exit or his permanence.
The Way of the Blue Jays until this point reminds me of another team that let the indecision cloud the imminent free agency of a star player: Los Angeles Angels and Shohei Ohtani.
The Angels had a 73-89 mark the season before the last year of Ohtani’s contract, but still chose to retain Ohtani and try to make a race. The Jays had a 74-88 mark in 2024, and their hope is to compete for a place in the playoffs this year with Guerrero. That is not out of question. With Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios, they could have a good rotation. If Daulton Varsho is properly replenished from the rotator sleeve surgery, if Bo Bichette recovers and if Andres Gimenez continues to play an elite defense, they could be strong in the middle of the field. If what was in the physical exam of Jeff Hoffman, who promoted the Atlanta Braves and the Baltimore Orioles to break the agreements with him, does not stop it, could be a solid closure.
Unfortunately for the Jays, part of what an American league should be this hypercompetitive this year, they may not be enough. The New York Yankees are the defenders of the American League; The Boston Red Sox have dramatically improved with the incorporations of Garrett Croct, Walker Buehler and Alex Bregman; Orioles have their great nucleus of young talent; And the Tampa Bay Rays are always better than expected. Toronto could also end fifth again.
This 2025 attempt to compete instead of entering a reconstruction postpones, once again, the status of Guerrero. If the Jays have problems in July, they could redeem it. But with their imminent free agency, they could recover only half of what could have been its value last summer. If they retain it throughout the season and go to another team, they would receive only minimal compensation in the form of a draft selection by a local star.
How different this could have been. Some players do not want to play in Canada for one reason or another. Guerrero was born in Canada, son of the member gardener of the Hall of Fame Vladimir Guerrero Mr.who shone in Montreal, and signed with the Jays in 2015 for $ 3.9 million. The Central Office of the Jays delayed its rise to the big leagues in 2019, which cost him a full year of service time, but Guerrero demonstrated why everyone was so excited about what he could do, connecting 15 homers and showing great skills With the bat. In his second full season, he connected 48 homers and finished second in the race for the most valuable player in the American League.
However, its production decreased by 2022 and 2023, and on the road there was concern for its conditioning. The Jays could have reached a long -term agreement with him years before he became a free agent, as did the Kansas City Royals with Bobby Witt Jr. and as did the Cleveland Guardians with Jose Ramirez. But the Jays waited, which is not surprising: a distinctive seal of the Jays Management in recent years is that they do not usually renew contracts with their own players. As shown in the investigation of Paul Hembekides, since 2019 the Jays renewed contracts with José Berríos for seven years and 131 million dollars and with Randal Grichuk for five years and 52 million dollars. No one else signed more than three years.
After a slow beginning last season, Guerrero recovered, and in an important way. From May 27 to July 30, he hit .321, with so many extrabase hits (32) as strikeouts (32). This was the Vladdy Jr. that everyone in the industry seemed to be waiting, and provided another turning point for the jays. In July 2024, Toronto was in the same situation as Los Angeles Angels with Shohei Ohtani in the summer of 2022, when the Angels could have exchanged Ohtani with another 15 months of team control and have obtained an important booty in return.
And there was another factor for the Jays in July: Soto headed to free agency and inevitably would raise the ceiling for batters. That left Toronto with an election, in the midst of a lost season: or press to sign Guerrero with a long -term contract before the market was affected by Soto, or redeem it to its maximum value.
The Jays did what the Angels did with Ohtani. They waited.
Guerrero was even better in the last two months of the season, ending the year with an average .323 and an OPS of .940, winning a silver bat and ending sixth in the race for the most valuable player. With Jays outside the playoffs, they had all October and early November to choose a road. They could have pressed for a long -term agreement, before Soto began to meet the teams, and if they determined that they could not or did not want to hire it, they could have put it in the change market. The response that rival executives continued to receive was: Vladdy is not available.
But the main office of the Jays waited. One more time.
And a flirting began with Soto, choosing a fight against the most valuable franchise of the major, the Yankees, and the richest owner, Steve Cohen of the New York Mets. Edward Rogersthe owner of the Jays, was among those who met with Soto and his agent Scott Boras.
The participation of the Jays was probably condemned to failure from the beginning – Soto knows it with certainty – but in theory, this could have worked for them in this way: as bidders, the Jays had knowledge of first hand and from the beginning of How the Soto contract could affect the market for other players – such as Guerrero. The offer for Soto went through multiple rounds, over a few weeks, and it was as if the Jays were benefiting from operations with privileged information, all legally.
Once Soto’s figures exceeded 600 million dollars and shot towards infinity and beyond, the Jays had to know that Guerrero’s request would be huge. The Jays knew that other teams did not know, and once again, they had the option of bringing conversations to a resolution – with an agreement or without agreement – and, if not, redeem it.
Instead, the Jays waited. One more time.
Their doubts have been rational, considering what has been paid to the best first base in recent years. It has been more than a decade since a first base received 200 million dollars, much less 350, 450 or 500 million.
But given the participation of the Jays in the bid for Soto, the concern for Guerrero’s defensive position should not be a factor. Toronto, apparently, was willing to pay Soto something close to the gigantic treatment he got with the Mets, and it is not that Soto is a good defender; Probably, there will come a time when, in the middle of its 15 -year contract, I play the designated batter’s role. If the Jays had hired him, he would have been designated at some point, and the Jays agreed with that.
“If you are going to pay Soto Oa Vladdy, you are paying for the BAT,” said a rival executive. “You are paying for the power and contact that hurts, for a player at a young age.”
Soto became a free agent at age 26. Guerrero turns 26 next month and will be free agent in autumn. It may not be the batter who is Soto, but he is one of the best in the game and, for now, he is a Blue Jay. At this time, it is a single bidder negotiation.
When the Jays chased Ohtani, meeting with him in Florida, they went against Los Angeles Dodgers and other teams. When they spoke with Soto a few months ago, they had to compete with the Mets, the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Dodgers and other teams for their attention.
In the negotiations with Ohtani, the Jays never had a purchase price, a figure for which they were sure they would hire it. They bought in a negotiation silo, without knowing with certainty what other teams had offered, and Ohtani chose the Dodgers. With Soto, the Jays continued to raise their bets, without knowing where the numbers would end, never sure if Soto would really seriously consider their offer or if there was even a figure that would allow them to get the toleter.
With Guerrero, there is no doubt about whether he would sign to play in Toronto, as happened with Ohtani and Soto; Guerrero has played his career with the Jays and says he wants to continue playing in Toronto. In the case of Guerrero, there is a demolition number. As he said last week after the negotiations stagnate, “I have my number.” The Jays know that number, in a way in which they did not know with Ohtani and Soto and many other stars that have refused to accept their money in recent winners.
For Jays, who desperately need a franchise face, knowing the demolition number is worth everything.
And they should say yes. Today.
