F1: Who will win the Brazilian Grand Prix?
The forecast, based on the track, conditions, car development and driver expertise for the GP at the Interlagos circuit in Sao Paulo
SAO PAULO.- Predict who will win in Brazil has always been an exercise in humility, because Interlagos has the peculiarity of turning your predictions into memes about someone who has never seen F1. But with a drivers’ championship separated by one point between the McLaren, Max Verstappen With a real chance to defend his title, and rain in the forecast, we have to try.
To make this forecast we take as reference previous results of drivers and teams in Brazil, as well as the strengths and possible weaknesses of the main candidates to emerge with the best result in Sao Paulo.
The favorites on paper: McLaren (with a giant asterisk)
He McLaren MCL-39 It is the most balanced car on the grid and in theory it should dominate at Interlagos. Lando Norris just hit the table with his dominance in Mexico and has the recipe to continue on the path to victory: a car that is in tune with its driving style, a streak of positive results, and the motivation to extend its advantage over Oscar Piastri. The problem is that Lando under pressure is still Lando under pressure, and when things get complicated, the British tends to make them more complicated.
Oscar Piastri Technically he has the same car, but his performance has gone from strength to strength since his victory in Netherlands. Currently, Oscar has not only been slower than Norris in the last races (seven tenths in Mexico), the reality is that it is difficult to imagine him winning in Sao Paulo. After the Mexican GP, Andrea Stella confirmed that Oscar has problems keeping the tires at temperature on low-grip circuits, and Interlagos It sounds exactly like the kind of place where you could have another rough weekend because a hungry lion is coming from behind.
The real danger: Verstappen in Brazil in the rain
Max Verstappen He has won the last two races in Interlagos (2023 and 2024), in Austin he achieved the highest possible score in a weekend Sprintafter second place in Singapore after the victories in Azerbaijan and monza. More important than his recent form is the fact that the Dutchman already has three victories in Brazil and if it is rainy conditions you only have to look for 2016 and 2024 to know what is possible Mad Max in the circuit Jose Carlos Pace.
If it doesn’t rain at Interlagos, Verstappen is a candidate for victory, but if it rains, he is the figure to beat and although anything is possible in the multiverse of Marveleven to Doctor Strange it would be difficult for you to find the universe in which Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri They can take better advantage of wet conditions than the Dutchman.
Maybe in Sao Paulo Let’s see a less risky Max since unlike the McLarens, a withdrawal, whether in the Sprint or the main race, would leave him out of the fight even with the 83 points that will still be available after the weekend in Brazil.
Verstappen needs a weekend like the one in Texas to stay in the fight for the 2025 title.
The silent killer: Mercedes and the performance that no one expects
George Russell won in Singapore three races ago and has been on the podium in two of the last five. also won Brazil in 2022 and has three victories at Interlagos, tied with Verstappen and Hamilton.
If there is a driver who can surprise in Sao Paulo, it is George Russellthe Briton totally dominated the Singapore GP, a race where on paper his W16 was at a disadvantage due to possible overheating problems, but where it was quite the opposite, achieving its second victory of the season against Verstappen and some McLaren They were never a real threat.
Mercedes is historically strong in low temperature conditions, and if Brazil is cold and rainy, the W16 could find its optimal window exactly when it matters most. Yeah McLaren and Red Bull are canceled out or mistakes are made, Russell will be in the perfect position to take advantage of it.
Ferrari: Fast, but without brakes
The recent history of Ferrari in Brazil does not help for any prediction that can be made at Interlagos, or at any circuit if we want to be serious, to give some context, despite having drivers of the caliber of Fernando Alonso, Kimi Raikkonen, Sebastian Vettel, Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc himselfthe only pole for a car with a Ferrari engine in the last 15 years, was the pole for Kevin Magnussen in 2022, in a haas…
Leclerc He has been on the podium in two of the last five races of the season (Mexico and Texas) and can be fast when the SF-25 cooperates. The problem is that Ferrari is still Ferrari: they have to do ‘lift and things’ from lap 5 to handle overheating of brakes and wear of plates.
Lewis Hamilton is almost local in Brazil and He has won three times at Interlagosbut winning by managing from the second or third lap is impossible even when Hamilton and Leclerc are among the 5 best drivers on the grid.
Even finding a way to have a good result, Ferrari always finds a new way to be Ferrari, when it is not stopping early (Mexico) or extending a stint to change tires just when the driver is going to leave in traffic.
Winning at Ferrari is difficult, but the reality is that the most difficult thing about Ferrari is keeping the faith that everything is going to change.
The prediction: Verstappen if it rains, Norris if not
If the weekend is dry or light rain, Lando Norris should win. He has the best car, good shape, and he needs those points. If he stays focused, Lando should control the race.
The problem for Lando and for Piastri too, is that everything indicates that it will rain heavily this weekend and that’s where Verstappen can win the raceWithout thinking about it, the best McLaren cannot compensate for Max’s advantage in these conditions, especially when the fight also includes your teammate. If it rained, Max won.
Russell is the dark horse if the conditions are cold and wet but not deluge, and Ferrari will be there to remind us that speed without execution means nothing.
If we had to bet, we would put our money on Verstappen. Because in Brazil, in the rain, against the champion who is fighting to stay alive in a championship that seemed lost, betting against Max is simply a bad idea.
