Edgecombe overtakes Flagg as NBA Rookie of the Year favorite; what it means for betting and fantasy leagues
One week into the season, VJ Edgecombe (+110) has officially overtaken Cooper Flagg (+115) as the favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year award, according to AM850 BET.
One week into the season, VJ Edgecombe (+110) has officially overtaken Cooper Flagg (+115) as the favorite to win the award. NBA Rookie of the Yearaccording to AM850 BET.
This is a surprising turnaround from the start of the season, with Flagg the heavy favorite and a bet available on AM850 BET on Flagg against the rest of the field, where the rest of the players had higher odds.
How did we get here? And what are the chances that this situation will continue during the season? Let’s take a closer look at the situation.
Edgecombe’s bright start
Edgecombe is off to a spectacular start, averaging 22.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3.0 three-pointers and 1.5 steals per game in his first four games, helping the Philadelphia 76ers get off to a surprising 4-0 start. But beyond the statistics, his behavior on the court and his ability to handle key moments have been incredible for a rookie.
He has scored important baskets in decisive moments; has made great defensive plays; He has played a whopping 40.3 minutes per game, including many minutes in overtime. In short, an incredible start.
Flagg’s experiment as a basis
On the other hand, the Mavericks have started the season with an experiment: Could Flagg play point guard full-time?
That was a risk, because it’s not the best way to take advantage of Flagg’s abilities. Flagg is a small forward with excellent size and strength, physically more of a power forward than a pure small forward. He’s a good ballhandler and passer for his size, and has a well-rounded game, but he’d be more comfortable as an off-ball option who creates play from the low post than as someone who brings the ball up and initiates the offense.
This is especially true because forwards in the NBA are typically smaller and faster than Flagg, and can make life difficult for him if he plays that position. Flagg has already faced excellent defensive forwards like Stephon Castle, Scottie Barnes and the duo of Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace, and that has contributed to his slow start in the NBA.
How will this play out over the rest of the season?
This question is a little more complicated.
Taking a closer look at Edgecombe: We should expect a decrease in his statistics. No one plays more than 40 minutes per game for an entire season in today’s NBA, so there’s a good chance his minutes will decrease.
Furthermore, it is very clear in the first four games that Edgecombe’s production decreases when Joel Embiid is the protagonist. In the two games in which Embiid scored fewer than ten points or did not play, the Baylor rookie averaged 30.0 points per game. In the two games in which Embiid scored at least 20 points, even while averaging just 21.5 minutes, Edgecombe averaged 14.5 points.
Embiid’s health is always a risk factor, but if the 76ers’ plan to take him slow and manage his minutes pays off, Edgecombe’s stats will likely decline, even more so than Tyrese Maxey’s. And none of this even contemplates what will happen if Paul George and Jared McCain return, which will require minutes and prominence that currently belong to Edgecombe.
Taking a closer look at Flagg: It seems Flagg can only get better. Yes, the makeup of the Mavericks has influenced how he has been used. The Mavs have two good centers, Anthony Davis at power forward and PJ Washington at small forward. And with Kyrie Irving injured and the addition of D’Angelo Russell playing little off the bench, Flagg has been the starting point guard.
But this situation does not work for Flagg, nor for the Mavericks. They have a 1-3 record, second-to-last in the Western Conference, with a -10.0 points margin per game that illustrates how uncompetitive they have been.
Without inside information, I think coach Jason Kidd will eventually realize the situation and move Flagg to another position. Perhaps that means making Russell the short-term starter, knowing that Irving is expected to return sometime in the new year.
Either way, if Flagg returns to a more natural role, I think his performance will improve noticeably. The size, skill and determination I saw in the Las Vegas Summer League should translate into big performances in the NBA as well.
Predictions and bets
Bets: I don’t see much value in betting on either Edgecombe (+110) or Flagg (+115) at virtually equal odds for an event that will take place several months from now.
My strategy would be to wait one or two more weeks and see if one of the two players, probably Edgecombe, establishes himself as a favorite. If I could get Flagg at odds around +300 or higher at that point, he could be a good bet, as I expect his role to change and his performance to improve at some point this season. And this could come just as Edgecombe’s performance declines as his team gets its injured players back.
Edgecombe is definitely playing like the best rookie in the league right now, but the season is long and I would wait for the right time to bet, when the risk-reward ratio is more favorable than now.
Fantasy: The same analysis suggests that Edgecombe could be a very valuable player to trade in the short term. He’s taking the league by storm and putting up impressive stats in his first few games, so if you have him on your team, you could probably get a good value for him right now.
On the other hand, Flagg’s value on the transfer market is probably at an all-time low, and unless his role changes, his value is unlikely to recover. But I think that recovery will happen, which makes Flagg a good candidate to sign right now.
