Can Max Verstappen with the McLarens and achieve the fifth consecutive title?

McLaren’s double exclusion in Las Vegas revived the F1 season that was defined. Lando Norris is still the candidate and can celebrate in Qatar. Will Oscar Piastri remain as second driver?

As soon as the checkered flag came down at the Las Vegas GP, the 2025 Formula 1 season was doomed. Lando Norris enjoyed second place in the Nevada urban race, which gave him a credit of 30 points over Oscar Piastri and 42 over Max Verstappen. The Qatar event seemed to be a mere formality to celebrate their long-awaited first title. However, four hours later the shock would come: the two McLarens were excluded and the World Championship would arrive in Lusail with a completely different panorama.

Excessive wear on the bottom plate of the MCL39 left the Englishman and the Australian without points. Just McLaren lost in a terrain that it dominated and from which it forged its power, the height of the car. With a rear suspension envied by the rest of the grid, which allowed them a perfect balance for a soft configuration and to be fast in slow areas and rigid for the fast variants. Much of the aerodynamic strength of the Woking machines was in the floor. But In Las Vegas they went to an extreme that they could not explore in the three rehearsals prior to qualifying. Between red flags and rain, they found themselves raw in the competition. To make matters worse, there are no sensors that can be used to monitor wear in real time. They only rely on the algorithm that generates the floor height from the aerodynamic load. The alarms went off in the McLaren pit with a handful of laps to go and it was the moment when both Norris and Piastri were asked to turn slower. The Englishman managed to set records 40 km/h lower for final speed, but he did not reach it.

The double disqualification was a very hard blow for McLaren and its riders. Because, in addition, Max Verstappen was the winner of Las Vegas and the table now shows the Englishman 24 points ahead of the Dutchman and Piastri. Although the numbers have shrunk, Lando can be champion in Qatar. He only has to stretch his distance by two points to seal the title. It is worth clarifying that the 23rd date will have a sprint race, in which it will not be possible to win because there will be a maximum of eight points at stake and there will still be 50 to be played.

The big problem that Norris is experiencing these days is that the most important pursuer he has is Verstappen. McLaren’s policy of giving equality between its pupils will probably be put aside after Lusail. Don’t give your kids wings and eat them from the Dutch cuckoo. Only a total debacle by the British could give real chances to the Melbourne rider, who came to enjoy an advantage of 34 points over Piastri and 104 over Verstappen after the Dutch GP, round 15.

Red Bull played its last card of the year with a package of updates at Monza. Since then, Verstappen won four of the seven races held and never left the podium. From Italy onwards, the numbers show the revival of the driver of the energy drinks team. Norris scored 115 points, Piastri, 57; and Max, 161. Will it be enough for him to hit the mark and win his fifth title in a row?

Qatar definitely suits Verstappen and Red Bull. The four-time champion won two of the three editions of the GP (2023 and 2024) and, most importantly, he has plenty of experience in defining a title and has absolutely nothing to lose. Because if his attack is not enough, the scare he gave McLaren will remain in the memory. But if he wins the crown, it will be epic.

On the other side is Norris, who has everything to lose. McLaren was the car to beat during the year and as an example it is enough to point out that they were consecrated in Constructors in Singapore, six appointments in advance. Collapsing at the end and not winning the drivers’ crown would be a very hard blow, especially for Norris, who in Qatar will exclusively become the driver with the most races in McLaren history (151 and will break the lead with Jenson Button).

Lando repeatedly showed mental weaknesses at key moments. In fact, in Las Vegas, he started from pole and worried so much about Verstappen that he ended up in a maneuver in which he tried to cover the Dutchman at the corner and ended up outside in the first corner. That was Max’s card to get his sixth victory of the season. How will the exclusion of Las Vegas impact English? Without a doubt, the blow was strong, because he went from having the crown in his pocket to having to do the math. They are not complicated, it will be enough for him to be third in the two races and the sprint to celebrate no matter how much Max (and Piastri) achieves.

There is no doubt that Verstappen will go all out in Qatar. The bad news for the Dutchman is that he runs alone. More than ever he would need a teammate who could support him in the battle to get ahead of the McLarens. But Yuki Tsunoda was no help at any time of the year. Of the 391 points that Red Bull has this year, only 25 came from the Japanese. If Max is ahead and Lando finds it difficult to be in the fight, his doubts could be decisive. There is no doubt that if a World Championship is given life in which Norris has almost a race lead with two (plus a sprint) to go, it is because the pursuer is called Verstappen. Will it be enough for you?