Analysis of the best Japanese free agents on their way to MLB
We look at what to expect from Tatsuya Imai, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto in 2026 and where they could land.
The 2025-26 offseason has another solid generation of Japanese players available in the free agencyafter having been posted by their respective clubs of the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB)and that they will play in the Major Leagues next season.
Three main players are drawing the most attention from MLB teams: right-handed starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai and the infielders Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto.
Let’s analyze what to expect from each in 2026 and which teams could sign them.
Tatsuya Imai, P.S.
The 27-year-old projects as a third starter (consider an ERA around 3.00), but there is still some risk that he reaches that projection, as Major League Baseball is still a step ahead of the Japanese NPB.
Imai isn’t that big at 5’11”, and while he now has above-average control, it hasn’t always been that way. His walk rate was 5.1 walks per 9 runs in 2022, 4.1 in 2023, 3.6 in 2024, and 2.5 in 2025. That makes him look like a weak pitcher making do with his new ability, but his Four-seam fastball stays between 93 and 97 mph and tops out at 99 mph. There’s something really important here, as his splitter is an above-average pitch by almost any metric and his slider also performs as an above-average pitch.
I phrased it that way because his slider is a unique pitch, since it doesn’t slide; In other words, it averages movement toward the arm (like a splitter/changeup) rather than movement toward the glove (like a slider/curveball). It may sound bad, but pitching is all about deception, and hitters don’t expect a slider to move like that, which partly explains how well this pitch performed last season, with a 45% miss rate and a .212 xwOBA allowed.
There is also a precedent for this same arsenal having success in the Major Leagues: Trey Yesavage. Yesavage throws a four-seam fastball, a sidearm slider, and a splitter, and while his delivery (one of the highest in the league) is different from Imai’s (lower than average, due to his smaller arm slot and below-average height) and Yesavage’s splitter is better (one of the best in the league), they otherwise attack hitters in a similar manner.
Given Imai’s ability to improve his control and achieve unusual focus, as well as being a few years older, teams see him as having the traits to make continued adjustments as he enters a league with a new ball and new opponents. Maybe even adjust your pitch mix and placements a bit to optimize your arsenal; the location of his fastball is too central, while the shape of his fastball would work better high in the strike zone.
Since he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer and is one of the youngest free agents in the class, Imai is attractive to most of MLB, so his contract is expected to reach nine figures. I projected a total cost (including the publication fee to his NPB club) of $157 million over six years. In any case, that figure could be a little low.
It’s difficult to determine which teams will be interested in Imai, especially since teams that typically spend less, such as the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, are expected to spend more in free agency than in previous years. That said, teams that are willing to invest at the top end of the market and need starting pitchers (and may not want to give up a draft pick to get one) include the New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees, who are always interested in top NPB players.
Munetaka Murakami, 3B
Murakami is fascinating both for being an example of extremes and for his team potential.
He has some of the best raw left-handed power on the planet, with exit velocities that would put him between first and twelfth in the Major Leagues, depending on which metric is used. Add to that some impressive home run numbers (he broke the NPB single-season home run record with 56 at age 22 in 2022), and the fact that Murakami is only 25 years old (and won’t cost the team that signs him a draft pick), and we find some clear positives that teams are excited about.
On the other hand, his home run total hasn’t topped 33 since 2022 due to a rising strikeout rate, backed by contact rates as bad as almost any hitter in the majors, but at the same time, he’s facing inferior pitching in Japan. Murakami also projects to be a first baseman in the MLB, but primarily played third base in Japan, with very limited experience at first so far.
Some evaluators believe his strikeout rates in the zone and off-speed can be improved with mechanical and approach adjustments, even as he faces better pitching in the United States, in part because of his age and bat speed. That’s speculative, but the upside could be huge in getting four full seasons out of a 20-something player who is one of the biggest home run threats on the planet. So you can understand why some project six years at $20 million per year, but also how some teams fear the downside so much that they won’t guarantee more than $50 million.
A reasonable expectation is that Murakami can be an immediate home run threat with a good walk rate, but a low average and little value in baserunning or defense; perhaps Kyle Manzardo/Matt Wallner at the bottom end, Spencer Torkelson in a mid-range composition, and Brent Rooker as the expected outcome. A comparison that also comes up for Murakami is Joey Gallo, who most fans always considered a bad player, but who posted 4.4 WAR in his age-27 season, and next year will be his age-26 season. Masataka Yoshida, entering his age-29 season, received $90 million from the Boston Red Sox ahead of the 2023 season with a similar defensive profile, but much less power.
I projected that the total cost to acquire Murakami (including the signing fee to his NPB club) would be just under $94 million. Many industry experts believe it will exceed nine figures, but no one seems to know which team will pay that amount. I was a little careful because there have to be at least two teams willing to meet that price for the bid to be that high, although I’m not sure how big that group of teams will actually be.
The Yankees have a history of highly valuing exit velocity and age when acquiring players, making them one of the rumored potential destinations, more because of their expected evaluation of Murakami than the need for lineup power from a corner position. The Chicago Cubs make sense, as Murakami would join an influx of young hitters (Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, Jonathon Long), while others have just entered free agency (Kyle Tucker) or will do so after next season (Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner). The San Francisco Giants also make sense: the Houston Astros could be a good option if they trade Christian Walker’s contract, and the Toronto Blue Jays (if they don’t get Tucker) could also be a destination.
However, given his AAV and growth potential, almost any team could justify bringing in Murakami if their evaluations deem him reasonable.
Kazuma Okamoto, 3B
Okamoto, 29, led Japan’s NPB in home runs since entering the league in 2018 with 247, one more than Murakami. He doesn’t offer the enormous raw power or youth of Murakami, but he has a much more stable profile that will likely earn him a short-term contract.
Okamoto has extra raw power and great intuition to show in games, with the ability to pull and lift quality pitches. He’s a right-handed hitter who will turn 30 in June and will likely be a long-term first baseman, so his potential is somewhat limited. However, if he posts above-average on-base percentages and power numbers, like he did in Japan, that will allow him to be an above-average starting player in MLB.
While his home run total dropped to 27 in 2024 and 15 in 2025 (when he was limited by an elbow injury), his batting average skyrocketed to .280 and .327 over the past two seasons, along with his strikeout rate dropping to 16% and then 11%, respectively. Like Imai, Okamoto displays a broad base of skills, adaptability and performance that suggests he will be able to continue to adapt in the MLB.
Unlike Murakami, Okamoto has already played a lot of first base, so his adjustment period will be shorter as he is also getting used to big league pitching. I projected Okamoto’s acquisition cost to be just under $43 million, including signing fee, over three years, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a team added an extra year (possibly two more) or paid a higher annual fee; He covered me a little, possibly too much, due to the right-handed first baseman profile.
Okamoto could prove a profitable alternative to Pete Alonso (whose budget is in the low nine figures) and can point to Yoshida’s $90 million deal as a comparison. The Mets, Astros, Yankees, Pirates, Marlins, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks appear to be interested in the first baseman/designated hitter market to varying degrees, and could be looking for a cheaper option than signing Alonso, Kyle Schwarber or Murakami, where Okamoto is the backup option.
