NBA Play-In: What you need to know with winner predictions
Starting on Tuesday, April 14, and until Friday the 17th, we will meet the last passengers to the NBA postseason.
The regular series has ended and it is time to change the chip. We left the sandbags of the ‘tanking teams’ behind and began to observe the path towards the Larry O’Brien trophy. Beware: not so fast. Because before the playoffs, we will have, this week, the last passengers to the postseason who will leave the Play-In.
With the encyclopedia of what happened in the first part of the season, and the crystal ball on the other to anticipate the future, we started playing on AM850.com to find out who will make up the honor roll.
We roll out the red carpet. Advance, daredevils of nets, hoops, segments and piques.
Here we go.
2:14
Jaquez’s Heat, with the challenge of being consistent
Miami needs to win two road games to reach the Playoffs, and this is the outlook for the East.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
How they got to the Play-In
Charlotte Hornets (9th)
The Hornets are the team of the new generation. They transformed a dull franchise since the Larry Johnson and Alonzo Mourning years (how vintage) into an electric basketball rollercoaster. Ups, downs, and color. Lots of color. The person most responsible for all this is Lamelo Ball, but he alone could not have created something like this. First, credit to coach Charles Lee, because many times giving freedoms and removing chains is more important than giving instructions.
Charlotte found its messiah behind the arc in Kon Knueppel, and Brandon Miller is beginning to be the star that draft specialists once projected. The Hornets attack much better than they defend and we will have to see how far Moussa Diabate and Ryan Kalkbrenner can defend the paint. The goal is to reach the postseason, but what has been done so far is already meritorious and significant for the always-suffering subscribers at the Spectrum Center.
Miami Heat (10th)
This was, for this writer, Erik Spoelstra’s worst regular series as head of the Miami Heat. The team had everything to get into a direct playoff spot, but they paid dearly the price of irregularity. Of the last 15 games, Miami lost 10. They started the tournament with Tyler Herro out of action, then Norman Powell fell, they never managed to get Kel’el Ware as a reliable second insider in the rotation, and the memory of Bam Adebayo’s 83 points will remain as a laughing flashback when it comes to analyzing what happened in the first stretch of the season.
The most common thing at this point for Florida was to alternate formations, with players far below expectations like Nikola Jovic. Advanced statistics show the Heat as an average team: 13th in offensive efficiency, 11th in defensive efficiency. But Miami has something that Charlotte doesn’t have and that is experience in these types of instances. Head-to-head this season, they are up 3-1, although they lost their last game against each other by 30 on March 17. The signs do not seem encouraging, but be careful: if the Heat gain confidence it will be difficult to beat them.
Key figures
The Heat trio to watch closely is evident: Tyler Herro and Norman Powell on the perimeter, and Bam Adebayo in the paint. On the Hornets side, we are leaning towards Lamelo Ball, Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller.
X Factor
In the case of Miami, double X Factor: Kel’el Ware in the paint and Jaime Jáquez as foreman of the second unit. Charlotte has Miles Bridges in that role, as a two-way talent on offense and defense.
Forecast: From experience in these types of instances, my favorite to advance is the Miami Heat.
How they got to the Play-In
Philadelphia 76ers (7th)
It seemed that, after Paul George’s 25-game suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-doping rules, the 76ers were finally back on track in the East. But in these lands, lately, something always happens and the emergency appendicitis operation of Joel Embiid, who played only 38 games this regular series, was just that. Another stone in the shoe for Nick Nurse. Despite this, Phily’s season was good, with Tyrese Maxey as the new leader of the team, VJ Edgecombe as one of the rookies of the year and a combo of players ready to step up when needed.
Adem Bona and Andre Drummond will take turns filling in for the former NBA MVP; The series against the Magic has them up 2-1, but it will be something completely new because the last game against each other was on January 9. The Sixers need to win to get back into the playoffs, something they did not achieve last season.
Orlando Magic (8th)
Terrible regular season for Orlando. It was supposed to be the takeoff of this team, but nothing further than that. Franz Wagner had a hard time in the infirmary, Paolo Banchero was very irregular and Desmond Bane, importantly, never managed to be a reliable third sword for a team that always needed him to cover emergencies.
The Magic had won five games in a row before playing with the Celtics’ reserves on Sunday, they could have gone directly to the postseason but they lost an impossible game and fell to eighth place. Dramatic for aspirations but much more so for confidence. Defense was always a factor on this team, but this season they took a step back without the ball. They can still recover their touch and will have two chances to make the playoffs.
Key figures
Both teams have their best exponents on the perimeter. Philly has Maxey, Edgecombe and George, while Orlando has Wagner, Bane and Banchero.
X Factor
We will choose, in the case of the Sixers, Kelly Oubre Jr. as the balance player and in the case of the Magic, the honor will go to Jalen Suggs.
Forecast
There is no clear favorite, but since it is being played in Philadelphia, I am leaning toward the Sixers as winners of the bracket.
2:38
The Play In of the West: The surprising Suns and the hope of the Warriors
Sebastián Martínez-Christensen with the detail of how the teams arrive in the fight for a ticket to the Playoffs.
WEST CONFERENCE
How they got to the Play-In
Portland Trail Blazers (10th)
After the Chauncey Billups betting scandal, the Blazers may as well have thrown in the towel until next year. But not. Tiago Splitter, as Portland’s coach, did a great job and the franchise won 42 games, an amount that allows them the chance to return to the playoffs since they did so in 2020, when they beat the Grizzlies in the play-in and then lost in six games to the Denver Nuggets in the first round. Portland is an energetic, renewed team, with new faces and freshness. Of course, they have a long way to go, but with his arrival Jrue Holiday gave them an interesting defense on the perimeter, and combined with Toumani Camara, All-Star Deni Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson formed a perimeter with potential (we don’t even count Damian Lillard here, out with an Achilles injury).
Jerami Grant, consumed by ailments in recent years, will not be present at the Play-In due to a calf injury that he has had since the end of March, but the internal combo made up of Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III can bring difficulties to the Suns. Height will be a factor. Portland’s time is surely not now, but the first step towards a reconstruction – very necessary, by the way – has already been taken.
Phoenix Suns (9th)
After the sad year in which they never managed to combine Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal with Devin Booker, the Suns found their way with Jordan Ott as coach. They won 45 games and were close to the Timberwolves in going directly to the playoffs. The perimeter found solutions: the character of Dillon Brooks (sometimes too much) and Grayson Allen, the emerging talent of Jalen Green, the appearances of Jordan Goodwin and Collin Gillespie, and the emergence of Oso Ighodaro to accompany Mark Williams made Phoenix a team with postseason potential.
When the least was expected, more was done, and that is very encouraging news for a team that, a few years ago, had been left with a noose around its neck in sporting and financial matters. Looking ahead to Tuesday’s game, the weak point against Portland seems to be in the land of giants: they will face a team that charges offensive rebounds very well and therefore any distraction will pay dearly.Key figures
Devin Booker on the Suns and Deni Avdija on the Blazers
X Factor
We will not name names here, but rather a game situation: the burden of the offensive rebound. If Portland dominates here, it will be the difference.
Forecast
The Suns will win this game, but it won’t be easy.
How they got to the Play-In
Golden State Warriors (10th)
Perhaps we are witnessing the last moments of a dynasty, because Stephen Curry’s health has been a determining factor in the Warriors’ season, who have seen Jimmy Butler fall due to a torn cruciate ligament and more than live, they have survived in this regular series. Still, and despite everything, they have a chance to reach the playoffs. It will be the fifth time that Golden State plays Play-In: they lost three times and won once, more precisely last season, when they beat the Grizzlies. This year they won only 37 games and have had more names than actually men on the field. Because Kristaps Porzingis, a star player, arrived from the Hawks and has participated very little.
Al Horford, a veteran, is a great player but he is on his last legs. Sometimes one, sometimes another, but they have been a traveling nurse. And without Curry, Draymond Green did not have – nor will he have – the tools to change things. Steve Kerr knows that changes are coming, and regardless of what happens in the Play-In against the Clippers, it is reckless to think that the Warriors, seventeenth in defensive and offensive efficiency, can reach anything more than a first round of the playoffs.
LA Clippers (9th)
The Clippers are 0-2 in their Play-In history, with both losses coming in 2021-22. For this season, they arrive on the rise, because they started a nightmare record of 6-21 and finished with a 42-40 record. That spirit of redemption has its most important prophet in Kawhi Leonard, but he is not alone. They lost James Harden and Ivica Zubac, two key players, along the way, but both Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin have brought energy on the perimeter, essential to renew air and hope.
The center position is quite an issue, because Brook Lopez is already a veteran for years and Isiah Jackson is not guaranteed to be present in the Play-In due to a long-standing ankle injury. Will it be John Collins’ postseason breakout? Ty Lue knows that he is the favorite in this tie, especially because the heat of the Intuit Dome can make the difference.
Key figures
This answer has never been easier: Kawhi Leonard on the Clippers and Stephen Curry on the Warriors.
X Factor
Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford on the Warriors and John Collins along with Derrick Jones on the Clippers. Both teams have doubts among the internal team, and the team that manages to prevail in that section will stay with the ticket to the playoffs.
Forecast
The Clippers will win and take seventh place.
