Konnor Griffin, to MLB, what should you know about the Pirates phenomenon?
Konnor Griffin has generated a lot of buzz this spring, but how good is he really? Here we analyze it
Konnor Griffin reaches the Major Leagues!
The Pittsburgh Pirates have promoted baseball’s top prospect ahead of Friday’s home opener against the Baltimore Orioles.
Still a teenager for three more weeks, the 19-year-old shortstop is expected to become the first teenage position player in the Major Leagues since Juan Soto’s debut in 2018.
Griffin has generated a lot of buzz this spring, but how good is he really? What can fans expect from him from the beginning and in the years to come? And what does his debut mean for the Pirates? Let’s analyze.
How good is Griffin?
Griffin is the best prospect baseball has seen in years.
He’s an exceptional running back with an exceptional arm, and over the past year, he’s gone from being considered a possibly average defensive shortstop who could eventually play the outfield to an above-average defensive shortstop. He also possesses exceptional raw power, fueled by impressive batting speed and his imposing 1.90m and 101kg physique.
Before the 2024 MLB Draft, I compared Griffin to San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr., mostly because at the time it was thought that Griffin could play the outfield, just like Tatis. It is now more common to hear the name Bobby Witt Jr. as the main comparison. Griffin’s combination of hitting speed and performance at this age also reminds some of Ronald Acuña Jr., who debuted in the major leagues just after his 20th birthday.
Griffin literally has all the tools, the physique and the pedigree to be a superstar, and the list of players with these same tools, this performance and this projection who debuted in the Major Leagues at this age is full of stars and Hall of Famers. Griffin is not a sure bet, because no one is, and almost all of these players had to iron out some details early in their major league careers, but all the elements are present to justify great enthusiasm.
Over the winter, I created an algorithm to consider performance adjusted for age, level, and stage; exit speed; the speed; the defense; and the age-level relationship, in order to analyze all Statcast-type data of position players in the Minor Leagues. Griffin outperformed the second-best prospect by this measure (Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle, considered baseball’s second-best prospect and the American League Rookie of the Year favorite) by more than 25 percent. Second and third (JJ Wetherholt of St. Louis) were separated by 3 percent, and third and fourth (Colt Emerson of Seattle) by 1 percent. You already get the idea.
Can the Pirates get an extra draft pick if Griffin becomes an immediate star?
Yes. Griffin was promoted in time for the Pirates to be eligible for a prospect promotion incentive pick if he won Rookie of the Year or finished in the top three in MVP voting before arbitration (most likely in his first three seasons), since he would have a full season of major league service if he remained in the league this entire season. The additional pick would be awarded right after the first round. Last year, the Kansas City Royals got the 28th pick for Witt’s MVP, and in the 2024 draft, the Arizona Diamondbacks (31st pick) and the Baltimore Orioles (32nd pick) received Rookie of the Year selections for Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson, respectively.
Notably, the Pirates were ineligible for a prospect promotion incentive pick following Paul Skenes’ Rookie of the Year award because he was not promoted in time to complete a year of service, but winning the NL Rookie of the Year award did grant him a full year of service. Pittsburgh was smart to avoid a repeat of that situation, but this decision is also easier to make with position players since there are no innings limits to consider.
Additionally, it has been reported that Griffin and the Pirates have been talking about a possible contract extension all spring, and the Pirates would not be eligible for a pick if he had signed before being promoted. The idea behind the rule is for teams to promote players when they are ready, not once the team has secured their salaries. Griffin could sign a contract after his debut and the Pirates could still get the pick if Griffin achieves the results necessary to earn an award.
Where did Griffin come from?
Griffin was a longtime elite high school prospect from Mississippi and the first position player of his generation to reach the national stage. He basically maintained that top spot until draft time, even after reclassifying from the class of 2025 to the class of 2024.
He was considered among the best players before the 2024 draft (the list was very tight, with about 10 players), but he needed an adjustment that deterred some teams. I ranked him seventh in that class and he was chosen ninth overall, earning the eighth highest bonus and being the first high school player drafted.
Nick Kurtz was also among the best players and was selected fourth overall, earning the sixth-highest bonus, before winning the American League Rookie of the Year award last season. Other stars could emerge from this 2024 draft class: Chase Burns, Jac Caglianone, Travis Bazzana and Wetherholt were also among the best, while Carson Benge and Trey Yesavage were the 19th and 20th picks, respectively. But Griffin and Kurtz seem to be the breakout stars of this generation.
Griffin adjusted his swing immediately after signing and had one of the best full-season pro debuts in prospect history last season, hitting .333/.415/.527, with 21 home runs and 65 stolen bases, in 122 games across the Class A and Double A leagues at just 19 years old. Add to that his impressive numbers in five Triple-A games to start this season, and Griffin has one of the most impressive stats in Minor League history, should his Minor League career be over.
This has been somewhat overlooked with all the hype surrounding his rise, but Griffin was also an excellent pitching prospect. Before the draft, I compared him to Jack Flaherty on the mound (who was also a notable high school prospect who excelled at both hitting and pitching) and I think Griffin could have fetched at least $2 million even if he had never hit in his life. He possesses an elite skill set that will be among the highest comparisons made to any draft prospect for decades to come, along with Bo Jackson, Josh HamiltonBryce Harper and Justin Upton.
Are there any concerns about Griffin’s play?
They are quite limited, but it is important to mention them. Griffin’s approach to the bat is to do damage and, more specifically, to hit the ball hard. His swing, both in elevation and power, is simply acceptable. To hit extra bases, he relies more on his power and bat speed than on the direction and elevation of the ball. This same criticism was made to Vlad Jr. and Junior Caminero at the same stage; It’s a minor detail, but it’s worth mentioning.
Because of this approach, his hitting ability is good, but not great, and his pitch selection is also acceptable, but not elite. Since Griffin is so young and has only played 26 regular-season games above Class A (and only 24 in major league spring training), he could experience some difficulty converting his vast potential into production. His ability to hit against experienced pitchers has a limit for now. Once the league receives a scouting report on its trends in a few weeks, I foresee some dips in performance.
The key here is that Griffin adjusted his swing plane shortly after being drafted. Scouts are still complaining that his team ruled him out too early for the 2024 draft due to concerns about his swing, so I dug in to find out how and why he did it and if this applies to other prospects with similar concerns. The answer was something like this: Griffin is exceptionally talented and also a hard worker who takes instructions well and integrates them quickly. No one, not even Pittsburgh or Griffin’s own team, knew he would make the adjustment or that he would make it so quickly, but the Pirates thought it was worth the risk.
If I could give a young, talented player just one thing to help him overcome the challenges of facing major league pressure for the first time, it would be that skill.
