5 bold predictions for the 2024 F1 Las Vegas GP

These are five things that could happen at the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix.
LAS VEGAS.- The Las Vegas Grand Prix is one of those races on the Formula 1 calendar where anything can happen, so making predictions about it can be a lot of fun.
Who will win the Las Vegas GP? How will the drivers’ championship and the Constructors’ championship end once it’s over? How will Sergio Pérez do?
Well, let’s get ready to dust off the crystal ball, but let’s not leave aside the probabilities and conditions of this the twenty-second stop on the 2024 F1 calendar.
Let’s start by saying that the factors that make the Las Vegas GP unpredictable have a lot to do with the location of the 6,201 kilometer long track itself.
The Mojave Desert is a place where the nights are cold, very cold, and low temperatures are a headache for engineers, especially because of tires. Pirelli develops tires that provide competitiveness to F1, without compromising safety and performance. The tricky part about tires is that they have a very relative useful life depending on the treatment they are given, and within that useful life they have a high performance window that requires a temperature that is not very hot, but not at all cold.
A tire that does not reach the ideal temperature is as if it were made of wood, it does not grip when cornering, it blocks when braking and if we add to that the fact that the track is slippery because they are commonly used streets that are filled with dust. , is the recipe for having a skating rink.
Let’s go with the predictions
There will be Verstappen-Norris conflict
Max Verstappen starts in fifth position, while Lando Norris will start in sixth. The two contenders for the Drivers’ Championship, side by side in the third row, will be the focus of attention at the start.
Verstappen, true to his custom, will attack to push Norris out of turn one, a long left, which with the cold and Max’s fang will be a nightmare for Lando.
As this is a first lap movement, it is, to a certain extent, allowed for one car to cause another to leave the track, something that Max will take full advantage of.
In reality, Verstappen has Norris as his ‘son’ and in every duel on the track, sanction or no sanction, the frustrated one is Lando and the one who moves forward is Max, plus if both of them quit, the Dutchman would be the beneficiary.
There will be more than three different leaders in the race and the winner will be…
The very long straight of the Las Vegas Strip, those 1.92 kilometers that cross in front of the fountains of the Bellagio hotel are the element that will provide excitement in the race.
The braking at turn 14, where Verstappen passed George Russell last year, where Charles Leclerc took second place from Checo Pérez on the last lap, will be where the leadership changes.
Christian Horner said on Friday that any of the top eight on the grid could win the Las Vegas GP, I would say it could even be the top 10 or more.
It will be a race with at least two yellow flags, with a couple of safety cars, one of them in the final part, close to the 50 laps agreed upon, and that will mean that not necessarily whoever is ahead before that SC is the winner, as it will have to withstand the attacks of its pursuers in the longest DRS on the calendar.
Beyond the superiority shown in all the sessions by Mercedes, Ferrari is there, very close and Charles Leclerc will win the race, in an exciting finish over Lewis Hamilton, who will come back from tenth position. Third place will go to Max Verstappen.
The race will be defined by less than 5 seconds of difference.
Max Verstappen is crowned four-time champion, but…
The previous prediction conditions this one. If Max Verstappen finishes the race on the podium and Lando Norris off it, obviously the Dutchman from Red Bull will be the champion of the 2024 season and will tie his fourth title to equal Alain Prost and Sebastian Vettel as four-time champions of F1.
Verstappen needs to be 60 points or more ahead of Norris in the points table, currently Max’s advantage is 62 points, with 393 to Lando’s 331.
Staying ahead of the Englishman in any circumstance or abandonment of both makes Max champion, even if Verstappen adds two or one point less in Las Vegas than Norris would raise his hand, but here the factor is the McLaren driver’s lack of confidence and his difficulty to drive in slippery conditions like those of this GP.
Let us remember that Norris suffered on the wet ground in Sao Paulo and could only be sixth, and that here last year he abandoned on lap two, after losing control of his car.
So we don’t think Norris will have a very good time in Las Vegas, and with them he will make things easier for Max.
Checo Pérez is late at the start and then…
Checo Pérez will start in 16th position in Las Vegas, right next to his new arch-nemesis, New Zealander Liam Lawson. That’s like putting high voltage cables together, but with the poles crossed.
Lawson will have another opportunity to show Red Bull that he is “better” than the Mexican and will be aggressive, no matter that after the Mexican Grand Prix, Christian Horner has pulled his ears for ruining Pérez’s career and, incidentally, his own.
Checo has to be more cautious, but he will look for the Kiwi to pay him back for a couple of affronts he owes him (remember the battle inside the stadium at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodriguez). The fight between Red Bull and Racing Bulls will harm both and they will be attacked by Fernando Alonso, a great starter.
As the laps pass, the good race pace that the RB20 exhibited in practice will take effect and Checo Pérez will take on Lawson and then Alonso.
He will lengthen his stints as much as possible, avoid dangerous graining and thanks to this he will be able to advance to be within the Top 10.
How far will it go? It’s complicated to say, but if the team gives you the tools and the setup Checo Pérez will enter the Top 6 of the Las Vegas GP.
The president of the FIA will try to steal a camera
If there is one thing that the president of the FIA, Ben Sulayem, knows how to do well (in addition to imposing absurd fines on drivers) it is wanting to be the center of attention at awards ceremonies and moments of celebration.
He will try again like when he wanted to profusely congratulate Lewis Hamilton on his victory at Silverstone, but again, the drivers on the podium will completely ignore him.
It must be remembered that the Grand Prix Drivers Association (GPDA) were “rejected” by the FIA when they expressed in a letter their surprise at the fines imposed for “inappropriate language”, so the head of the Federation should not wait that they put balloons and streamers on him, when, as always, he intends to get in front of the camera in the places where the protagonists are the pilots.