2025 MLB Playoffs: WPA Rankings (Post-NLCS Edition)
That game was scoreless until Freddie Freeman’s home run in the sixth inning, and the Dodgers didn’t score the second run of their eventual 2-1 victory until the ninth, after Snell left. And only then could Milwaukee finally open the scoring. Snell was not only brilliant, but he was brilliant in a game that allowed no room for error. The WPA loved it.
Snell has shined in his three playoff starts and his 1.203 WPA average already places him among the top 30 postseason pitchers of all time. If Snell gets two starts in the World Series and gets close to the .401 WPA per game he’s averaged so far, he’ll become the greatest pitcher ever, and if the Fall Classic games are close, he could end up leading the rankings.
Raleigh was already having a great postseason, but his game-tying eighth-inning home run against Toronto Blue Jays reliever Brendon Little was the kind of decisive event (.320 WPA alone) that changes the standings. It wasn’t enough to overtake Ohtani for the WPA title of the night, but it did put Raleigh in position to win the Mr. October title if Seattle Mariners keep moving forward.
Vesia has had six consecutive scoreless outings, all in close victories for the Dodgers. In these outings, he has achieved four retentions and two victories. Understandably, Vesia has been overshadowed by the performance of some of his teammates, but he has been key in Los Angeles’ playoff run.
Not all of Mexican Muñoz’s outings have been high-impact, but they have all been practically impeccable. In six outings, Muñoz has pitched 7⅓ hitless innings.
5. Roki Sasaki, Dodgers | .686 Sasaki’s poor performance in Game 1 as Snell’s reliever against Milwaukee lost ground in the WPA series. However, he has had two clean starts since then, and as long as he closes out close games, he can move up the rankings.
Unfortunately, the WPA doesn’t fully capture what Ohtani did when the Dodgers swept the Brewers in the National League Championship Series. The .349 is impressive, but as the Dodgers quickly took a 3-0 lead (helped by Ohtani’s first home run to start the onslaught), the rest of the game had limited potential for influence. Furthermore, there is not a single number that can fully compare to what Ohtani did. They are all numbers.
Three home runs? It’s been done in the postseason, in fact, 12 other times before Ohtani. Babe Ruth — Ohtani’s most common historical comparison — he did it twice. But none of those previous chances were achieved by the starting pitcher in a game. And even if you want to get technical and point out that Ohtani’s third home run came after he switched to designated hitter, well, no pitcher had ever hit even two home runs in a postseason game.
Ruth never homered in a World Series game in which he pitched. He has the third-lowest postseason ERA (0.87) among pitchers who have made at least three starts. But none of his incredible World Series performances as a pitcher came close to what Ohtani did with the bat against Milwaukee.
Ten strikeouts? A score of 75, which Ohtani posted in game four? Sure, plenty of pitchers have surpassed those numbers in a postseason game. But none of them hit three home runs. In fact: no one had ever hit three home runs with 10 strikeouts in the same game, period. Postseason, regular season, any season.
According to Statcast playlog timestamps, Ohtani struck out William Contreras with his third consecutive strike in the first inning at 7:45:18 pm PT. Then he stomped off the mound, put on his batting helmet, picked up a bat and hit a 446-foot home run at 116.5 mph against José Quintana at 7:50:05 p.m., less than five minutes later. How is it possible?
Well, how is it possible that he struck out Jake Bauer with a split fastball at 8:49:47 pm and then, seven minutes later, hit a 469-foot bomb over the roof of Dodger Stadium against Chad Patrick? Or that, after finishing his six outstanding innings on the mound, he hit an out to center field against Trevor Megill? Three home runs off three different pitchers. Three home runs during a six-inning start in which he allowed two hits. Who does that?
How is it possible that the same player who threw the game’s 11 fastest pitches — and the only two that went over 100 mph — also recorded the game’s three hardest pitches, all at 113 mph or faster? It’s not just that no one did what Ohtani did on Friday. You could argue that no one else has been able to do all of those things in the same game. And, of course: that game gave his team a chance to get back to the World Series.
There is no single figure that proclaims Ohtani’s performance in Game 4 as the best in a single game in baseball history. But if you want to argue that, I personally am not going to stand in your way.
Good while they lasted
Top 10 postseason WPAs for players from eliminated teams
1. Will Vest, Detroit Tigers | .848
2. Tarik Skubal, Tigers | .609
3. Kerry Carpenter, Tigers | .591
4. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees | .579
5. José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians | .482
6. Keider Montero, Tigers | .441
7. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers | .362
8. Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies | .349
9. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox | .348
10. Cam Schlittler, Yankees | .314
Ohtani Tracker
Since Ohtani inspired all of this, we should be aware of his progress in the WPA.
Through the SCLN:
Batting Average (WPA): -.062
Pitching Average (WPA): .109
Overall Average (WPA): .047 (98th of 284 players this postseason)
Ohtani rose from 277th to 98th on Friday night. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that Ohtani gets two starts in the Fall Classic.
The WPA pantheon
Top 10 postseason WPAs since 1903
Note: That’s a long time period, but the cumulative nature of the leaderboard heavily favors recent decades, when there have been more playoff rounds.
1. David Freese2011 St. Louis Cardinals | 1908
2. David Ortiz2004 Red Sox | 1,892
3. Curt Schilling2001 Arizona Diamondbacks | 1,748
4. Alex Rodriguez2009 Yankees | 1,704
5. Yordan Álvarez, 2022 Houston Astros | 1,646
6. Carlos Beltran2013 Cardinals | 1,582
7. Bernie Williams1996 Yankees | 1,545
8. John Wetteland1996 Yankees | 1,522
9. Eric Hosmer2014 Kansas City Royals | 1,443
10. Mariano Rivera2003 Yankees | 1,420
Snell’s total at the end of the National League Championship Series puts him in the range of this select group. With two more World Series outings like his start in Milwaukee, in close games, it’s conceivable he could challenge Freese for the all-time Mr. October title. It’s a long shot, but either way, this has been an incredible run for Snell.
As for Ohtani, here are the four instances in which a player posted at least .200 WPA in both hitting and pitching during the same postseason. We think Ohtani could join this list. He has work to do to achieve it, but at least we know that if he doesn’t make it, in baseball 2025, no one else will.
• Christy Mathewson1913 New York Giants (1,054 WPA | .447 hitting; .607 pitching)
• Rube Foster1915 Red Sox (.883 WPA | .303 hitting; .580 pitching)
• Babe Ruth1918 Red Sox (.710 WPA | .209 hitting; .501 pitching)
• General Crowder1935 Tigers (.923 WPA | .207 hitting; .716 pitching)
• Jake Arrieta2016 Chicago Cubs (.480 WPA | .218 hitting; .262 pitching)
