The qualification of the Dodgers agreement by Roki Sasaki

The qualification of the Dodgers agreement by Roki Sasaki

The part of the qualification is the easiest to explain. In news that could be expected, given the good run of Los Angeles Dodgers Of high -level searches, the champions got a pitcher who could be the main baseball prospect, one ready to join a rotation of Major Leagues Now, in Roki Sasaki. And they do it with the same financial commitment as if Sasaki was a internally developed player who recently reached The Major.

In a way, the financial aspect is even more optimistic than that (from the perspective of the Dodgers), since normally with a prospect of this caliber, a team could feel pressure to sign it with an early extension. With Sasaki, there is no such pressure: any conversation about an extension would now be seen how to avoid the transfer rules. It is almost too good to be true.

However, there are costs beyond the extremely favorable salary for the Sasaki team over the next few years. The bonus to be signed was limited due to the size of the team’s international bonds fund, but it is still real money. And there is an opportunity cost involved, because now the Dodgers They cannot hire a larger group of international prospects.

For this period of international signatures, all the eggs of the Dodgers are in the Roki basket. Obviously, the exchange is worth it for Los Angeles. Sasaki not only strengthens even more the powerful Dodgers, but avoid the ignominy of seeing him choose their greatest rivals in the San Diego Padres. Maybe no team needed Sasaki more than San Diego, but it is the Dodgers who leave with one of the most shocking incorporations of the low season.

It is possible that in a year or two, we can see Sasaki as a candidate for Cy Young. You have to solve some things before that happens (it is not where Paul Skenes was a year ago, for example), but the tools are there so that this high ceiling perspective becomes a reality, and soon.

As for these tools, Sasaki received a qualification of 80 for his Baseball America Splitter, which marks it as one of the best offers in sport. When Sasaki’s capacity for a rapid first -class ball is added, that is a stellar level base only in those two pitches. When it is at your best, the releases work with each other and can be used against batters of any hand. The qualifier “at its best” refers to the differences in the speed of its fast ball and its movement profile between 2023 and 2024, the last of which saw it shine at lower levels both in average and maximum speed.

The difference seemed to move to the final result: the Sasaki strikeouts rate fell from 13.4 for every nine innings to 10.5 last season, although its solid base rate by balls increased a bit. Even so, it recorded an effectiveness of 2.35 in 111 inputs (in a league with a global effectiveness of 3.04) with a 7.1 strikeout rate. Even so, he had less failed swings, which matters when we talk about facing players from Major Leagues.

Sasaki also launches a slider, mainly right -handed, and similar to its other offers, the launch does not present a high turn rate. That is a good thing for the Splitter: think about the unpleasant similar offer of Logan Gilbert in Seattle. Sasaki’s fast ball still seems to have a good amount of movement despite the speed of 90 miles per hour, so the turn is not an obvious problem there. The biggest concern is that the general lack of turn could inhibit its ability to deepen its arsenal as it matures.

Paradoxically, that little weakness is almost the exciting part. Sasaki is not a finished product. With him joining the acclaimed Dodgers launch development program, he can continue to press towards his considerable roof. But it is also ready to help the Dodgers rotation in 2025.

In the short term, it will be interesting to see if Dodgers can help Sasaki refine their mechanics and may recover that lost speed. Even if that happens, they will eventually want you to diversify your offer. This process should be easier due to the solid control of Sasaki, which allowed him to compile amazing proportions from strikeouts to ball bases while limiting the opponents of three home runs in 202 tickets in the last two seasons, although in a league with a low rate of home runs.

Perhaps the most important thing is that Sasaki, 23, is thin and could gain some volume over time, which could increase its durability and ability to withstand the workload of a true number one opener. The largest number of tickets he launched in Japan was 129⅓ in his season at age 20. There is concern about injuries (he is young, he launches hard and it is always worth considering excessive dependence on a splitter), but his arm, in general, has little mileage.

In addition, dodgers can be monitored in how they increase Sasaki input counting. They have a deep group of major leagues opening candidates and would probably use a rotation of six men for much or the entire 2025 season given the state of Shohei Ohtani Returning from rehabilitation due to injuries.

The contract (the standard rookie agreement of MLB once the bonus to be signed and the publication rates are completed) reduces the pressure on the organization of many ways. Do not go crazy, but if Sasaki (which seems to have a healthy inclination for personal improvement) manages to put everything in order, you can increase the number of entries accordingly. There is no financial inconvenience that accompanies the high -value pact that Sasaki would surely have achieved in a truly free market.

To have an idea of ​​what was at stake with Sasaki’s decision, at least for the next season, I made three series of simulations. Each considers the prospects for the three finalists informed by Sasaki.

For Dodgers, the impact on the regular season is insignificant. Sasaki adds more certainty, but they were already great favorites to repeat as champions of the West Division of the National League. The greatest impact occurs by defending its World Series title. But the incorporation of Sasaki highlights even more the domain of the Dodgers, especially on their division rivals, who, to a greater extent, are seeing low chances of ending first.

There is nothing that angels don’t like. If you consider the hiring through the risk/reward prism, it is an easy. If you consider it through the prism of moving the needle in the short term, it is also an A. If you consider it through the prism of making an impact incorporation without inhibiting your financial flexibility, it is also an A. If you think about it from the point of view of giving your fans a unique player and talent that should be incredibly fun to see, is also the easiest of A.

Finally, the last reason for A: Sasaki could have signed with any team, and all teams wanted it. He chose the team. It is not a simple first category achievement: it is a triumph and a validation for a franchise that reinforces its global domain in constant expansion.

Qualification: a