The future of Max Verstappen: Red Bull or Mercedes?

The Dutchman has a contract with the shield of energy drinks until 2028, but with output clauses. Gone are the silver arrows, which could reach 2026 or 2027. In the middle is George Russell.

The story began 11 years ago. A boy named Max Verstappen, with just 16 years, stood out greatly in karting. His dad Jos and Huub Rothengatter, who was the manager of Verstappen senior, met with Toto Wolff, director of Mercedes, to treat that the silver arrows put the young man in the talent development program. A short time later, also in 2014 and with Max already in European F3, there was another encounter in Vienna, at the House of the German Team. But Toto lowered his thumb, did not see in Max someone who was going to discolor and chose to add Esteban Ocon, who would finally win the European F3 title of that year. Red Bull appeared immediately on stage and not only included it to his program, they directly promised an armchair in F1 for 2015. In the following season, Verstappen debuted in F1 with Toro Rosso. The rest is known history.

Almost 11 seasons later and four titles in the world of Max later, Wolff and Verstappen are in talks so that the Dutchman joins Mercedes. The flirting is not new. Already in 2024, when Lewis Hamilton announced his departure from the Brackley Team to move to Ferrari, Wolff began to tie the panorama. The letter saved was Kimi Antonelli, the Italian gem that Wolff did not miss as a Verstappen at the time and included it to its structure when he was only 12 years old. But Toto decided to score the possibility of adding Max, especially when the Dutch stopped winning races after last year’s tenth appointment. Finally, a memorable success of Brazil and the fourth title sealed cooled everything: Max stayed in Red Bull and Kimi was anointed as headline in Mercedes.

But the story did not end. Again, in the middle of the 2025 World Cup, the name of Verstappen is linked to Mercedes again. However, this time, it would have been the Dutch who went to play the bell at Wolff’s door. The champion’s work team, with Dad Jos and Raymond Vermeulen (pilot manager) began the contacts. The Verstappen clan is worried about the performance of Red Bull, and not only this year. In 2026 a new technical regulation will enter into force and the cars and engines will be changed. Those of Milton Keynes bet on a unit of their own power, exit from its plant, in society with Ford. No one knows for sure which team will have the best driver, however, the runrún in the Paddock points to Mercedes would start with advantage, as it did in 2014 with the birth of the hybrid era. Max fears to be bogged down in a team whose domino period was in the memory and with an uncertain future. The chances of Verstappen achieve the fifth title this year are supported by a chimera, because the RB21 is not at the McLaren level.

In Austria, where Max lasted three curves in the race before being crashed by Antonelli, Vermeulen had a meeting with Christian Horner on Saturday morning and another with Oliver Mintzlaff, executive director of Red Bull, on Sunday night. They want to know what tool will Max tell. There is something clear: in Milton Keynes they will do the impossible to give their main star everything he needs, but the performance does not appear.

As published by the Sky Sport media in its Italian version, the Verstappen-Wolff agreement would be closed. Max has a contract until 2028 with Red Bull, but with performance clauses that are stored under seven keys. The rumor, never denied by the parties, suggests that one of it would be that the Dutch could rescind the Link If you reach the recess of the Boreal summer is fourth in the championship. There are still three races to get to the holidays (Great Britain, Belgium and Hungary) and the champion is third in the table, 46 points from Lando Norris, the second. And behind George Russell, just nine. The English can open the door for Max to leave Red Bull and stay with his place …

Max would not necessarily leave Red Bull. The agreement with Mercedes could be since 2027. In this way Verstappen would be another year with the Austrians and would have a clearer vision of the walk of the car under the new regulation. In fact, several tip pilots will be attentive to force outings in 2026 if they find cars that are not competitive. But everything can also opt to see the Dutch silver dress in the next World Cup.

Wolff’s delay to extend Russell’s contract, which expires at the end of the year is very suggestive. The English, in its number 1 position of the team, is in its best season in F1, won a race and is fourth in the World Cup. That is all that allows the W16. However, the Austrian director already warned that he will define his 2026 pilots during the holidays, at which time Max could have an output clause … There is talk of a $ 35 million contract for Russell, and with a duration of one year. That would open the door again to the speculation that Max arrives in 2027.

In Mercedes they are satisfied with Russell, although Wolff cost a lot to say for him as number 1 of the team. But, of course, if the possibility of having Verstappen appears and the thorn is drawn 11 years later, it is an impossible breath to let.