Previous of the fourth Mercury-Lynx game: an injured star, a suspended coach and the arbitration in the sights
The Lynx were the great favorites to return to the WNBA finals; However, facing the fourth game of the Sunday of his semifinal series against Las Mercury, they are on the verge of elimination after losing two games in a row.
Phoenix – Las Minnesota Lynx They remained at the top of the classification throughout the 2025 season and were the great favorites to return to the WNBA endings and play for his fifth title in the history of the franchise. However, in the face of Sunday’s fourth game (8 pm et, AM850) of its semifinal series against the Phoenix MercuryThey are on the verge of elimination after losing two consecutive games.
Phoenix’s victory for 84-76 in Friday’s third game ended in chaos. At one end of the court, the eaves of the Lynx, Napheesa Collier, was sitting on the ground, grabbing his left ankle after colliding with the base of Las Mercury, Alyssa Thomas. On the other hand, the coach of Minnesota, Cheryl Reeve, was removed from the court by her coaching staff in the absence of about 21 seconds for the end after reprimanding the referees for not whistling Thomas.
In his press conference after the game, Reeve said that assigning the three referees of the third game to a semifinal of the playoffs was a “bad praxis” and that a change in the league was needed in terms of the process of contracting and selection of referees.
Although the Lynx have not updated the state of Collier, the WNBA suspended Reeve on Saturday for a match.
Kendra Andrews, Charlie Creme, Kevin Pelton and Michael Voepel, from AM850, analyze what to expect on Sunday of both teams, as well as arbitration, and what does the uncertain state of Collier imply for the rest of the WNBA playoffs.
Why have the LYNX not dominated this series as much as they did in the regular season?
VOEPEL: It is not uncommon for the teams that fought for a position in the playoffs until the end of the regular season are more refined than those who got it at the beginning. The Lynx secured the first place and the advantage of the premises on August 30, 12 days before the end of the regular season. Minnesota had nothing to win in his last five games of the regular season. Reeve insisted that the games still had importance and that the Lynx would not relax or stagnate, but it is easier to say it than to do it.
Even so, if Minnesota had recovered the loose ball of the base of Phoenix, Sami Whitcomb, 8 seconds from the end of the second game, the Lynx would probably have closed the victory and would have arrived 2-0 up to Phoenix. Instead, Minnesota lost in the extension, which drastically changed the tenor of the series. Collier’s injury and the defeat of the Lynx in the third game further promoted the impulse in favor of Phoenix.
Andrews: In a nutshell, the Lynx have not looked like the same team that were during the regular season, a team that dominated the WNBA since May and had the first place insured. After having the best defense of the League throughout the year (97.5 points and allowing only 76.7 points per game), Minnesota has had the fourth best defense in its first five post -agreed games. The defense of the Lynx is now located behind the Phoenix Mercury, New York Liberty and Atlanta Dream.
In attack, Minnesota has been much more frantic in the semifinals than throughout the season. Lynx are sometimes hurried, and if they take away the first shot option, they strive to find something different. The composure they showed during the regular season has declined, and Phoenix is taking advantage of it.
PELTON: Brian Windhorsst de AM850 likes to talk about the margin of error, and I would point out the absence of Dijonai Carrington as something that reduced the margin for Minnesota. It is a less option for Reeve, and returning to the injury of Karlie Samuelson in July, they are two players who Lynx thought they would improve this year’s team and are no longer available.
What has Phoenix done to take control of this series?
VOEPEL: It is essential to remember that the Lynx never faced Phoenix with all their strength – with Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper on the court – and playing how they do it now in their four regular season clashes. Reeve and the Lynx players said before the start of this series that their 3-1 record in the regular season against the Mercury did not guarantee the outcome of the playoffs.
The Mercury shone in the painting in the first half of the first game, but the Lynx set their game in the second half and won. In the second game, Phoenix led 11 triples after only three in the first, which was fundamental for Mercury to match the series. In the third game, both teams brought the same amount of field shots (30) and triple (six), but the Mercury hit 18 of 22 free throws, compared to 10 of 11 of the LYNX. That was the difference in the result.
PELTON: Following the point of voepel, Las Mercury has two of the three best players in this series according to our classification when entering the playoffs, and Thomas has surpassed Collier so far. The greatest continuity of Minnesota has not been able to compensate for that first level talent difference.
Andrews: When the Mercury finally recovered in the absence of approximately one month for the end of the regular season, Sabally declared AM850 that he felt that the team was playing at 80% of their capacity. The Mercury expected that in the final stretch they could develop chemistry and combine it with the surprising depth they have obtained from their rookie group to go far in the playoffs. Now we are seeing how that is materializing.
Thomas’s facilitation has been precise, and the score of Sabally and Copper has been high level. The trio scored the last 29 points of Las Mercury in the third game, including the 21st of the room. And its depth has changed the Phoenix games, such as Whitcomomb’s tie at the end of the regulation time in the second game. This is the version of the Mercury who knew they could be once they had their entire group on the court. And since the victory in the second game of the first round against Liberty, Phoenix’s confidence has never been so high.
CREME: With a healthy collier, the Lynx could win two in a row. But playoff series can change course at unique moments, and it seems that it has done so.
To be clear, Minnesota is not the same team without Collier. Courtney Williams and Natisha Ilicanman played well in the second game with 33 combined points, but that is not enough power without Collier. Kayla McBride is capable of more, but all others in this template are role -playing players.
Collier means too much for Lynx to win without it. Not only is it one of the top scorers of the league and the centerpiece of its attack, but it is also one of the best defenders of the WNBA. How can a team that has already been surpassed by 26 points in the painting in the series defend the interior without its anchor? Lynx probably can’t. Going out and winning the series seems equally unlikely.
VOEPEL: I agree with Charlie. Yes, the Lynx won some important games during the regular season without Collier, who played 33 of the 44 games. But with the Mercury to the maximum of their capacity and the intense atmosphere of the playoffs, it would be difficult for Lynx to win two games if Collier cannot play.
Arbitration has been criticized by coaches and players throughout the season. What is your opinion about it?
PELTON: Everything in WNBA has improved in the last five years, from facilities to travel and talent on the court. Frankly, arbitration has not followed the pace. The WNBA arbitration will always be affected if the best referees in the league amount to the NBA. WNBA benefits from the formation offered by the NBA, but it is time to improve remuneration to the point that reaching the NBA is not the goal. And we should have created a WNBA repetition center to accelerate those endless interruptions.
Andrews: The main complaint after Reeve’s comments after the second game is the important thing: when the arbitras have not been able to sit on how the game will be arbitrated, it often gets out of control. We saw it in the third game in Phoenix: no technical foul was sanctioned to Bridget Carleton when he hit Sabally with his chest. And we saw it at the beginning of the year, when the competition between Indiana and Connecticut was a resounding success.
VOEPEL: There are complaints about arbitration constantly in all sports. The growing popularity of WNBA has paid more attention to arbitration: more people see it, so they complain more.
I have come to detest the term “physical” because it seems to mean committing as many faults as possible before a real fault is sanctioned. However, nobody wants too many beeps (which interrupt the rhythm of the game) or very few (which can result in ugly basketball in the best of cases and injuries in the worst).
In addition, people do not see the same in the same play. That is true in contact between Thomas and Collier. For me, it was a foul on Thomas. But others saw him as “incidental.” Ultimately, the only opinion that counts in any party is that of the referees.
Trainers and players often say that what they look for most is consistency. But referees are human beings with different strengths and weaknesses, both individually and together. The League must do everything possible to adequately attract and compensate for the best referees you can get. However, there also seems to be more demand than the supply of high -level referees.
How will the fourth game be arbitrated? What team benefits from a stricter whistle and why?
CREME: The coaches have judged physical plays the whole season, but this has not meant great changes in the way of arbitrating the games, so the logic suggests that there will be not many changes on Sunday.
But now it’s about emotion, not logic. Reeve’s outburst made it clear. The referees listen to the noise. And although a new team brings a new perspective and a new approach, they know that a very scrutinized job will be even more under the magnifying glass in the fourth game. More whistles are expected, especially at the beginning. It is natural to want to take more control over a situation that seems out of control. The result will be more whistle.
Will Minnesota benefit, the perceived team as the most affected by Friday’s arbitration, more whistles? I’m not sure it’s like that. Minnesota was last in the WNBA in points in free and penultimate throws in percentage of free throws. The Mercury have more players who aggressively seek the hoop and tried more free throws this season than Minnesota, although neither team was among the best in terms of percentage of free throws.
In fact, more arbitral decisions could affect the rotation of LYNX. Without Carrington, they don’t have so much depth. Reeve has only played with two reservations for more than ten minutes in any match in this series.
Andrews: More whistles are expected at the beginning, since the referees show that they can take, and maintain, the control of the party. There will also be less room for emotions. For example, the exchange between Williams and Copper in the third game, Carleton’s chest clash with Sabally or the talk we saw in the second game between Thomas and Collier. Those are cases in which the referees could intervene faster in the fourth game.
Lynx could benefit more in terms of the mental part and how this series has gone so far, but Phoenix has many players who like to cut towards the hoop and play through (or generate) more contact, so it could go in any direction.
I am also curious about how energy affects this stadium. PHX fans on Friday seemed to like the physical atmosphere. Knowing that it will be under the magnifying glass on Sunday, I could create a hostile atmosphere, which could benefit the Mercury.
