Prediction of the Champions League winner, according to previous champions
We look at all past champions to determine which of the remaining 16 teams has the best chance of winning.
These are the teams that have won the last 10 titles of the UEFA Champions League: Real Madrid, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain.
Those teams also make up six of the eight teams in which the UEFA called the “Silver Path,” or the upper half of the table of the Champions League of 2026. These teams have won 31 titles of the Champions League together and have come second on 15 other occasions. At most, only one of them will make it to the finals this season.
As for the other team, which we officially call the “Blue Trail”, I guess. Their last title was in 2015, and the eight teams on that team have won five European Cups and nine more second places. Apart from Barcelona, no other team on that side of the table has a single trophy from the Champions League.
Last year we had a champion for the first time, and the way the table developed this year has seriously opened up the possibility of it happening again. Although their chances are still much less than 50%, the Arsenal He is clearly a betting favorite to win the tournament.
But will he achieve it? Like every year, we will analyze all previous champions for whom we have advanced data to determine which of the remaining 16 teams has the best chance of winning.
All data, unless otherwise indicated, comes from Opta and Stats Perform.
Prediction #1: Score goals
Instead of focusing solely on goals, we will adopt a combination of goals and chance creation, which I have previously referred to as “closed goals”. This, simply put, is a combination of 70% expected goals (xG) and 30% actual goals – a better measure of performance than goals alone.
The limit here, as in most cases, is set by the Chelseawho won the Champions League despite finishing sixth in the Premier League in 2012. Throughout the season, the team Roberto Di Matteo averaged 1.61 adjusted goals per game, a mark only slightly better than the other Chelseachampion of the Champions Leaguenine years later.
Which team doesn’t beat this time? We have to say goodbye to three teams from the blue path and one from the silver path, since Atlético de Madrid (1.58), Atalanta (1.52), Newcastle (1.52) and (1.13) remain below the threshold. We must also eliminate Sporting Lisbon, Galatasaray and Bodø/Glimt, given that no team outside of the big five European leagues has even reached the final in any of the last 15 seasons.
(If you’re looking for more analytical reasons why they don’t look like winners: Bodo had the fifth-worst expected goal differential (xG) in the league phase among all teams, Galatasaray scored six goals (not including penalties) in the league phase, and Sporting were outshot 118-87 in the league phase.)
Eliminated teams: Atlético de Madrid, Atalanta, Newcastle, Tottenham, Galatasaray, Bodo/Glimt, Sporting Lisbon.
Remaining teams: Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Manchester City, Liverpool, PSG, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Bayer Leverkusen.
Prediction #2: Prevent goals
Defense wins championships, or at least, it used to.
We have seen several elite defensive teams win the Champions League in the last 15 seasons: the Chelsea in 2021, the Barcelona In 2011 and 2015, the Liverpool in 2019 and the Bayern Munich in 2013. All of them posted adjusted goals allowed figures below 0.85. But most recent champions have stayed close to 1.0.
Is it a sign of a change in the tactical balance in Europe? Or is it completely irrelevant and random? We’ll see.
The worst defense to win it all was the worst offense to win it all: the Chelsea in 2012, with his 1.22 adjusted goals allowed per game. Of the remaining teams, the only one with a worse defense this season is, well, the Chelseawith 1.29 adjusted goals allowed per game. Only a handful of the 16 remaining teams allow more shots than the 11 in the Chelsea per game, and only the Barcelona (the last remaining practitioner of the sold-out high press at all costs) allows for higher quality shots.
Both the Liverpool (1.22) as the Barcelona (1.21) fell just short of the threshold.
Eliminated teams: Chelsea
Remaining teams: Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Manchester City, Liverpool, PSG, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen
Prediction #3: Pressure
About 10 years ago, the coach Roger Schmidt demonstrated with him Bayer Leverkusen the effectiveness of aggressive and vertical football. It wasn’t just about pressing up; They did it, but they also tried to shoot on goal as quickly as possible. There really wasn’t any team like them, and I’m not sure there has been another like them since.
He Leverkusen current one is nothing like them. According to the passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), it is the team with the least aggressive pressure remaining in the Champions League.
The team with the most aggressive pressing that won the Champions League was Barcelona of Luis Enrique in 2015, which recorded an impressive PPDA of 6.98. This is the same team that rarely conceded goals and had unknown players like Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar playing in attack. It is the best soccer team I have ever seen.
As expected, the Chelsea was the least aggressive team to win the European Cup in 2012. Their goals per game average (PPDA) was 13.26, which means we must eliminate the Leverkusen and its PPDA of 13.44.
Eliminated teams: Bayer Leverkusen
Prediction #4: Center Frequency
Unlike the other figures we’ve looked at, this one focuses more on the sweet spot. We look for teams that are between those that focus the most and those that least.
Because? Crossing is an inefficient playing method on average, but it is still necessary to expand the defense horizontally and create danger from the wings. If you never focus, it’s bad. And if you always focus, that’s also bad. A healthy approach does not rely on centers as the main lever of attack, but it does not eliminate them completely either.
A winning approach to Champions League he has previously had between 8.4% and 19.7% passing in the final third of the field as crosses. The first figure corresponds to the PSG from last season and the second, again, at Chelsea in 2012.
Among the remaining participants of this season, only the Spurs They fall outside the upper limit, but several of the current favorites fall below it. Bayern Munich, Barcelona and PSG —second, third and sixth favorites to win the tournament—focus less than last season’s winners. He Barcelona has 8.0%, while the Bayern (7.7%) and the PSG (7.4%) are even lower.
The question for these three teams in the knockout rounds: Will they be able to create quality chances if they face a big, physical and organized defense?
Eliminated teams: Bayern Munich, Barcelona, PSG
Remaining teams: Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Real Madrid
Prediction #5: Pace of play
It is practically impossible to control all the matches in the Champions League. Not only is the level of competition very high and the type of competition very different to what you are used to in your domestic league, but by playing the same team twice in a couple of weeks, tactical weaknesses are more likely to be exploited.
In other words, if you want to win the Champions League, You have to be able to survive, and even excel, for long periods when the ball bounces back and forth and both teams run up and down the field.
But with the arrival of the pandemic, the sport changed overnight and we have not gone back. In 2019, the matches of the Liverpool They averaged 99.1 possessions per team, the highest of any winner in the data set. That was until the Bayern Munichwith 99.8 possessions, broke the record the following year. However, the five champions since then are now the five winners with the fewest average possessions per game.
But the figure has not continued to decline since the Manchester City set the lower limit of 78.5 possessions per team in 2023. So, for now, we’re sticking with it. And that means that both Arsenal (77.2) as the real Madrid (78.2) will be eliminated.
Eliminated teams: Arsenal, Real Madrid
Remaining teams: Manchester City, Liverpool
Prediction #6: Defensive Formation
There are many ways to defend and win trophies.
You can press high and keep the ball away from your area. You can delay and prevent your opponent from finding spaces in attack. Or you can position yourself somewhere in between: playing a middle block that frustrates your opponent in the midfield and ruins every possession. We have seen teams prevent goals at a very high level by doing all of the above.
What we haven’t seen before: a successful defense that allows its opponents to touch the ball in the center of the field.
In Europe This season, the average team allows its opponent, on average, to touch the ball 17.52 meters from the center of the field. Each and every one of the last 15 champions of the Champions League They kept their opponents even further from the center. When the Manchester City won his only Champions League In 2023, their opponents touched the ball at an average distance of 17.58 meters from the center of the field, the shortest distance from the center for any recent champion.
This is bad news for him Liverpool, which allows their rivals to touch the ball 16.76 meters from the center, a distance not only closer than that of any previous champion, but also that of all but six teams in the five major European leagues this season.
And then, we are left with Manchester City. It is strange, given that this is one of the three or four worst teams in the City who has directed Pep Guardiola. But the interesting thing about City is how, let’s say, uninteresting it is. In the past, teams Guardiola They were always based on some type of end: how they controlled possession, pressed or advanced the ball. Now, they look a bit like other good teams, without too many distinctive stylistic features.
That doesn’t work so well when trying to maximize scoring in a 38-game domestic season, hence the Manchester City be behind the Arsenal in the race for the title Premier Leaguebut perhaps better suited for four rounds of playoffs against the best teams in the world.
Winner: Manchester City
