NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Predictions of each award

Will Nikola Jokic get your room MVP? Which rookie will stand out? NBA Forecast Panel from AM850 reveals its awards predictions by 2025-26.

What players will take home any award in the main NBA awards this season?

Last season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander became the first player from LeBron James in 2015 to win the MVP of the finals and the MVP of the League in the same season. This season, the race for first place in the awards list will be at odds, not only for the MVP, but also by other important awards.

Cooper Flagg, the first team of the Draft, is ready to take the award to the rookie of the year. But in a talented generation of newbies, it will surely face some rivals, such as Dylan Harper of the San Antonio Spurs, who could take the prize for the franchise for the third consecutive season.

In addition, do not miss the race for the award for the defensive player of the year, since the favorite of last season, Victor Wembanyama, returns to the court after not having played the 65 matches necessary to be elected. We ask our summer forecast panel – a group of NBA experts, including reporters, editors and analysts – to classify their three favorites for the six NBA main awards. The first place would receive five points, the second three and the third one.

Here are the results:

Note: Our NBA 2025-26 summer forecast continues Wednesday with predictions of victories and losses for the east and west conferences. On Monday, we reveal our predictions for teams that will have the greatest rebound this season and those that will go down, and we answer some of the most important questions of the season.

Who will be the NBA MVP?

1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 83 points

2. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: 62 points

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 46 points

E4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks/Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: 9 points

5. Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets: 8 points

Or the tiredness of the voters disappears rapidly, or they were very impressed by the duel between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the second round of the Playoffs of 2025. The three times MVP arrived as a great favorite to win for the fourth time in our preseason survey, almost doubling the votes so that it would repeat. Voters also seemed impressed by Luka Doncic’s transformation into the preseason, since the slender version of the Los Angeles Lakers base was second in the early vote. The success of the team always influences the vote, and probably because of that SGA has fallen to third place. In other words, he already raised the Thunder to a championship level and was recognized as the MVP for it. But what if there is even more level for him, and the youngest champion team in decades, to reach? – Ramona Shelburne

Who will be the rookie of the NBA year?

1. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks: 121 points

2. Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs: 38 points

3. VJ EDGECOMBE, Philadelphia 76ers: 25 points

4. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets: 18 points

5. Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz: 16 points

As expected, Flagg was an overwhelming selection in the vote: it is the best prospect of this class, it provides a versatility that prepares it for the NBA and is assuming what will probably be an important role in a team with aspirations to the playoffs and veteran talent. This award is usually the confluence of talent and circumstances, and Flagg reaches the league with an optimal combination of both.

Harper and Edgecombe finished second and third, and both players can have a great impact as rookies. The question in both cases will be how important the role they can forge in their respective and crowded rear lines will be, and if that will give them a sufficiently solid platform to aspire to the rookie award of the year. In theory, Flagg has a great advantage, for now. – Jeremy Woo

Who will be the defensive player of the year?

1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 95 points

2. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 31 points

3. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 20 points

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 16 points

5th Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 14 points

A deep vein thrombosis in the right shoulder practically deprived the phenomenon of the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama, to win his first prize to the defensive player of the NBA year last season, since the 21 -year -old did not reach the threshold of 65 games to be eligible when he was marginalized on February 20. Despite playing only 46 games last season, Wembanyama led the League in plugs (176) for a wide margin, surpassing the second classified, Brook Lopez (148). In addition, he averaged 1.1 robberies for a defense of the Spurs that had a defensive rating of 115.4 with him on the court (121.4 without him).

If Wembanyama plays the 65 games required by the league this season, it would be a surprise that the prize for broad margin would not be taken, surpassing the current defensive player of the year, Evan Mobley, and other candidates such as Chet Holmgren, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert.

Antetokounmpo, who once won the award for the defensive player of the year, ended eighth in the vote of the prize last season, ahead of the four -time winner Rudy Gobert, who ended in 13th position. They are attentive to how the incorporation of Myles Turner to Milwaukee in the preseason could free Antetokounmpo to cause havoc on the rival offensive. – Michael C. Wright

Who will win the sixth man of the year?

1. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 66 points

2. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves: 52 points

3. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks: 39 points

4. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics: 18 points

5. Ty Jerome, Memphis Grizzlies: 17 points

Will voters value the nuances above the figures? That would have to be the case for Alex Caruso to win this award next season.

This honor is traditionally awarded to a player who offers an instant attack from the bank. Three decades have passed since the sixth man of the year averaged a single digit at points, something that has only happened three times in the history of the prize. Caruso’s impact on his first season on Oklahoma City, especially during the playoffs, is indisputable. However, he averaged only 7.1 points per game during the regular season, when he received a single vote for third place and ended eighth in the vote for the sixth man of the year. It is unlikely that Caruso increased significantly its score during its ninth season in the NBA as a role -playing player in a squad full of players of the Thunder.

The Thunder will continue to carefully manage Caruso’s minutes (an average of 19.3 in 54 games last season), prioritizing the freshness of the 31 -year -old player for another probable deep race in the playoffs and providing development opportunities for young bases such as Ajay Mitchell and Nikola Topic. But there is a dominant defense precedent that contributed to an applicant to win this award, which goes back to the first sixth man of the year, Bobby Jones of Philadelphia in the 1982-83 season.

The minimum of 65 games does not apply to the sixth man of the year, but a couple of players who obtained good results in the AM850 vote may not be eligible for this award. The winner of last season, Payton Pritchard, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are strong candidates to be headlines this season. – Tim Macmahon

Who will be the most improved player?

1. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets: 59 points

2. Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers: 40 points

3. Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons: 18 points

4. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers: 14 points

5. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: 14 points

Amen Thompson was a clear winner in this category, since it is expected to play an important role for rockets, a team with great expectations for the 2025-26 season. Thompson will begin his third season in the NBA, after having taken a leap in his second year, and has not yet been full time. He has already established himself as an elite defensive player, reaching the All-Defensive team and is currently one of the best defenders with the League’s ball. His offensive game showed signs of improvement in the playoffs, with better ball handles and a suspension shot as his averages of scoring increased as the series progressed, giving the league a sample of what he can do on the other side of the court. This should be even greater, considering that Thompson will play this season with Kevin Durant, a centerpiece improved in Houston’s offensive than last season. – Jamal Collier

Who will be the coach of the year?

1. Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic: 48 points

2. Quin Snyder, Atlanta Hawks: 24 points

3. IME UDOKA, Houston Rockets: 22 points

4. Mike Brown, New York Knicks: 21 points

5. Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs: 16 points

Jamahl Mosley was in charge of developing the Magic when he was hired in 2021, and managed to make a young nucleus reach two consecutive playoffs. But now, Mosley has a template prepared to aspire to victory in a division is weakened by injuries, and our panel is committed to Mosley will make a significant leap as a leader and the prize will be taken home to the coach of the year. Orlando is in a position to win more than 50 games for the first time since the 2010-11 season with the essential additions of Desmond Bane, with its scoring and outer shot, and the stable game of the Tyus Jones base, which will complement Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Health will be vital, especially Jalen Suggs’s ability to recover from left knee surgery. Atlanta, rival of the Southeast Division, another team that made important changes in the preseason is expected to compete in the division this season, with coach Quin Snyder in command. – Ohm Youngmisuk