NBA predictions: 10 teams that could overcome or fail in expectations
We present five teams that could overcome its prognosis of total victories for this season, as well as five that could not reach the brand.
AM850 published his NBA summer forecast This week, breaking down everything that could happen in the League, from prize voting to championship predictions, through instability and direction changes.
Our team voted about the position that the 30 NBA teams could occupy in the final classification, a look at how the East and West Conferences. However, a consensual opinion is not necessarily the correct one. (For example, our prize prognosis for the 2024-25 season was 0 of 6).
With this in mind, here we present five teams that could overcome their prognosis of total victories for this season, as well as five that could not reach the brand next spring.
Five teams that exceed expectations
Oklahoma City Thunder
Forecast: 64-18
Last season, Oklahoma City became the 22nd team in the history of the League to win at least 65 games. Of these, only two franchises matched or exceeded that figure the following season: the Chicago Bulls of 1995-96 and 1996-97 (72 and 69 victories, respectively) and the Golden State Warriors of 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 (67, 73 and 67 victories, respectively).
The other teams that won at least 65 games in a season saw their total victories falling into an average of more than seven games the following year. Only on one occasion (the Warriors in 2015-16) a team matched or improved its total victories of the previous season.
Why could the defending champions break this trend? It is the combination of a conference this even weaker after the lesions of stars in Indiana and Boston (the Thunder had a record of 29-1 against the conference last season), a template that returns completely and that should continue to improve, and more time on the court for Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein after the duo was lost a total of 75 games last season. When either of the two pivots was available, OKC had an amazing 59-10 record, a rhythm of 70 victories.
Will OKC become the third team to win 70 games? Do not bet on this, but the Thunder could easily have the best record of the League and become the third team to win at least 65 in consecutive seasons. There is a reason why coaches, waves and executives with whom AM850 has spoken this summer do not bet against a two -time thunder.
The clippers
Forecast: 50-32
The clippers surprised last season with 50 victories after being projected as a team that touched the play-in. Paul George had signed with the Philadelphia 76ers and Kawhi Leonard played only 37 games, which underlines the work that coach Tyronn Lue did with the squad throughout the year.
This summer, the clippers recruited Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, Ben Simmons and Patty Mills in Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, John Collins and Brook Lopez, turning Los Angeles into one of the most depth teams of the NBA and gaining praise of the scadors and rival executives for their maneuvers in the preseason.
This template is practically the opposite pole of which OKC has formed: only three clippers rotation players are under 30 years old, and none less than 27, but clippers can combat age and the risk of injuries betting on their coach and their depth. This should allow them to move forward and overcome the total victories last year.
Golden State Warriors
Forecast: 48-34
Like the clippers, it is projected that the Warriors maintain their total victories last season and have an older template (although we project a currently incomplete template, since Golden State awaits the resolution of the free agency duel restricted by Jonathan Kumina).
This prediction is committed to the evolution of the Stephen Curry-Jimmy Butler III duo. In the midst of all Butler’s drama last season, Golden State had a 22-5 record in the 27 games that Curry and Butler played together. Yes, there is a high risk of age injury (including the future additions of Al Horford, De’anthony Melton and Gary Payton II, who seem to be ready to join Golden State once the situation of Kumina is resolved).
But while Curry, Butler and Draymond Green are relatively healthy, this looks like a good bet.
Miami Heat
Forecast: 39-43
Speaking of Butler, it might surprise to see his exequipo here. In the midst of Butler’s transfer drama, Miami had a disappointing season with a 37-45 record last year, reaching the play-in tournament as tenth planted before being eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round.
But Miami incorporated Powell – a scorer of 21.8 points per game last season with the clippers -, which should help the Heat attack, number 21 in the classification. The Heat also had a 14-28 record in decisive matches last season, the third worst percentage of NBA victories. This, added to this weakened, leaves Miami as a safe bet to overcome its prognosis.
Toronto Raptors
Forecast: 33-49
Toronto had a 30-52 record last season, doing everything possible to improve its draft positioning, and with Brandon Ingram without playing a second game with this group after a mid-season transfer from the New Orleans Pelicans.
It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the raptors are in this area in terms of victories, especially in the east, except for a massive wave of template injuries.
When the Raptors began to dismantle their template a couple of years ago under the direction of the then executive director Masai Ujiri, it was supposed to be a quick return to the contest. The movements that the team has made since then, including the transfer and extension of Ingram contract, contribute to that belief. The teams do not enter the season with the luxury tax, such as Toronto, and hope to miss the play-in.
Five teams that will fall short
Minnesota Timberwolves
Forecast: 51-31
Minnesota has passed the 51 victories only twice in the history of the franchise: in 2004 and 2024. Last season, Minnesota reached its second consecutive final in the West, but won 49 games and ended sixth in the classification.
This Timberwolves team lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency this summer, which forced young people like Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark to assume a much larger load, while they continue to depend largely on Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. If any of the veterans are lost some time, the Timberwolves do not have a clear answer to replace it. Naz Reid, who signed a five -year contract and 125 million dollars to return as a free agent this summer, is not strong enough defensively to compensate for the absence of Gobert, and Rob Dillingham, the eighth selection last year, remains a great unknown about his ability to eventually replace Conley.
Minnesota, with Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, a flexible template and coach Chris Finch, will continue to be a difficult rival next spring. But until then, given the strength of the West and doubts about the template, improving the total victories last year could be difficult.
Detroit Pistons
Forecast: 47-35
Last season it was magical for the Pistons, who went from 14 to 44 victories, they saw Cade Cunningham becoming an All-NBA player, they classified the playoffs for the first time since 2019 and won a playoff match for the first time since 2008.
These seasons are usually followed by one year of consolidation, and Detroit faced summer as an organization prepared for that possibility. Duncan Robinson replaced Tim Hardaway Jr., Caris Levert to Malik Beasley and the now recovered Jaden Ivey should take the Dennis Schroder post in the rotation after his march to the Sacramento Kings in free agency. But this is a group that will rely on young players like Ivey, Ron Holland II, Jalen Duran and Ausar Thompson to continue expanding their role around Cunningham. Detroit should easily compete for a position among the top six in the playoffs. And given the state of the east, the Pistons could not need the jump of three victories planned to get there.
Dallas Mavericks
Forecast: 44-38
Dallas will be one of the most interesting NBA teams this season, between the arrival of Cooper Flagg to the NBA, the alignment of impressive lineups in all areas, the consequences of the transfer of Luka Doncic and the possible return of Kyrie Irving after a breakage of the anterior cross ligament suffered in March. Currently, the only reliable player in the squad is D’Angelo Russell, a good rotation player in the base position, but more suitable for a role of substitute.
That, added to the health problems of Anthony Davis (six weeks was lost due to an injury to the groin after his debut with Dallas and then underwent surgery to repair a retina detachment in July), makes overcoming a 44 -victory season a difficult task in the brutal west.
San Antonio Spurs
Forecast: 44-38
Victor Wembanyama has already established itself as the dominant defensive force of the League in its second season.
But despite Wembanyama’s greatness, the Spurs template still gives the feeling of being in the process of formation, not being a finished product. This begins with the trio of bases formed by De’aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle.
Spurs have to find a way that the three (all very talented, but with doubtful shots) fit the stalls and learn to play with Wembanyama. It is one of the most important questions that the league people are asked about any team, given what could mean for the way in which the Spurs will mold the template for the future.
That is a lot to solve for coach Mitch Johnson, who debuts as a boss coach. Wembanyama, of course, could overcome this figure based solely on its own brilliance, but there are enough questions in San Antonio to be down the safe option.
Portland Trail Blazers
Forecast: 39-43
Portland ended with 36 victories last season after a strong impulse in the final stretch, which allowed the Blazers to accumulate victories against teams that rested for the playoffs or positioned themselves to maximize their position in the draft.
Portland turned Anfernee Simons into Jrue Holiday this summer, but it is not clear where the additional victories will come from. The Blazers try to combine veterans like Holiday and Jerami Grant with a young Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Donovan Clingan core. Blazers also trust that the defense that was shown during the second half of the season (tied in the fourth place of the NBA since January 15) is more solid than the number 25 defense of the first half of the 2024-25 season.
Portland has some interesting players in Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara and Clingan to build that defense, and replace Simons with a true defender like Holiday would not come bad either. But at a relentless conference, the bet here is that Portland cannot improve last season.
