NBA Finals 2025: 7 things that could decide the Thunder vs Pacers
Both players enjoyed a great performance on the way to the finals. After a slow beginning in the playoffs, where he only scored 35% in the first three games of the Thunder’s sweep on the Memphis Grizzlies, Gilgeous-Alexander has earned more than his prize to the most valuable player (MVP). He leads all players in victories above the replacement player (Warp) during the playoffs, according to my criteria. Haliburton arrived at the sixth match of the third conference finals at Warp, behind Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
In theory, the defense of Thunder is ideal to stop Haliburton, with Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso, each with different defensive strengths, highlighting against elite bases.
This has been against Haliburton. In four clashes between these teams in the last two seasons, Haliburton has averaged only 12 points per game, its lowest average against any opponent during that period.
Haliburton has been mostly passive against the fleet of perimeter defenses of Thunder. Its 10.2 field shooting attempts per game are its second minor amount against any opponent in that period; and his 0.5 attempts at free throws (he has only received a foul in free throws in four games) are his least amount. The Thunder has also largely limited its game capacity, since the 8.5 assists per Haliburton match against the Thunder place it in the fourth place of smaller amount against any opponent in the last two seasons.
Surprisingly, Haliburton scored only eight points in 10 shooting attempts on 122 clashes when Dort defended him, according to the Geniusiq registry. That is Haliburton’s lowest shooting percentage against any individual defender with a minimum of 50 clashes in that period (on the contrary, its highest shooting percentage occurred when Jalen Brunson faced, but the solid defense of the Thunder does not offer similar objectives to those that Haliburton can attack as he did in the conference finals).
It is enough to say that the base of the Pacers must play much better, and with much more aggressiveness, so that their team has the opportunity to surprise in the finals.
– Zach Kram
The finals will have the number 2 attack against defense number 1
When Indiana has the ball in the finals, it is a duel of power to power. The Pacers occupy the second place among all the teams in offensive rating in the playoffs, only behind the Cleveland Cavaliers, who swept the Miami Heat in the first round before losing against Indiana. On the other hand, the fearsome defense of Oklahoma City is allowing 3.4 points less than any other team for every 100 possessions.
This is the first time since 2022, when Golden State’s number 1 attack faced Boston’s defense number 2, which we see this type of confrontation in the finals and the fourteenth occasion since the NBA began to account for possessions in 1997.
During that period, neither the attack nor the elite defense have had a clear advantage. The two best attacks have won seven of the 13 series. The performance on the side of the court that does not have enough force has been a good predictor. In nine of the 12 series in which one team was better positioned than the other on the opposite side of the ball, the upper team won. Those are good news for Thunder, which occupies third place in offensive rating so far in the playoffs. The Pacers barely occupy the ninth place in defensive rating.
– Pelton
Do not wait for another Indiana triple avalanche
A key reason why Indiana’s attack is so electrifying and the defense of Oklahoma City is so forceful is the domain of each unit in triples.
The 40% success of Indiana in triples leads all playoffs teams by a wide margin, and Haliburton is the only head of the Pacers below that brand individually.
That unstoppable force will find an immovable objective in the triple line. Oklahoma City allowed its opponents only 34% success in triples in the regular season, which led the league, and has dropped to 33% in the playoffs.
For a long time, NBA analysts have discussed whether the percentage of triples of opponents is mainly due to the ability or luck; In any case, it seems clear that the defense of Thunder has both things on his side. According to Geniusiq’s analysis, the Thunder occupied third place as a triples of the rival during the regular season (based on factors such as the driver’s distance and the identity of the shooter) and the second in success of the rival (real precision less expected precision).
However, Thunder has a weakness in its defense of triples. In the regular season, it allowed the third largest number of triples in the League, according to Cleaning The Glass, with 41% of triple attempts from its rivals. And that figure is still high, with 40%, in the postseason, despite having played several of its playoff matches against the Denver Nuggets, which occupied the last place in offensive percentage of triple this campaign.
Oklahoma City strategically opts to block shots near the hoop. But that concentration has a counterpart: it has to accept that its rivals throw from depth, even if they are quality shooters, such as Donte Divinzzo and Michael Porter Jr. in previous rounds. That approach could be disastrous in the finals if the Pacers maintain this good moment.
But, at the same time, statistics suggest that Indiana players like Andrew Nembhard (with 29% of triple success in the regular season) and Pascal Siakam (39%) will probably not continue to score almost half of their triples. If they manage to avoid regression a little more, you could change the course of the series.
– Kram
Prepared for faster endings?
Normally, as tension increases and the matches intensify, NBA teams play slower and methodically. This is the average rhythm of the last eight finals: 2024: 93.0 possessions per game per game
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2023: 91.7
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2022: 95.4
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2021: 97.3
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2020: 94.6
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2019: 96.9
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2018: 92.7
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2017: 100.7
However, Oklahoma City and Indiana have not given signs of wanting to play slower. The Thunder average 100.6 possessions per game of playoffs this season, which places them in second place, only behind the Grizzlies, who lost against the Thunder in a first round sweep. Third, behind OKC, is Indiana, with 98.4 possessions per game.
In other words, the last really thrilling final was that of 2017, when the Warriors, in the first season of Kevin Durant with the team, defeated the CAVs in five games.
But, based on how they like to play both Thunder and Pacers, they could be prepared for another thrilling and ups and downs.
– Kram
Indiana’s streak, among the most unlikely in the history of the finals
Although the Pacers arrived at the conference finals last year, where they were swept by Boston, the betting houses gave them little chances of advancing a more round this season. Indiana began the season with a quota of 20-1 to win the east in AM850 Bet, tied in the sixth place of the conference. After adjusting the advantage of the house, this involved about 4% chances of the pains reaching the finals.
As for the championship quotas, only two teams-the 2019-20 Heat (75-1) and the New Jersey Nets of 2001-02 (60-1)-that reached the finals in the last four decades have had greater chances of winning everything in preseason than Indiana, with a 50-1 quota, according to AM850 Research.
In addition to the Heat and the Nets, the other four teams with pre-season installments of 30-1 or more that reached the finals lost the series. So far, the Warriors of the 2014-15 season (28-1) are the most unlikely champions in history in terms of preseason probabilities. If the Pacers manage to win this series with another surprise, they would beat that brand.
– Pelton
Two more opportunities for history
If the Pacers won the finals, they would stand out among the previous champions, all but two of which arrived at the playoffs in the top three. The only exceptions are the Houston Rockets of the 1994-95 season, which were the sixth sown of the West when they got their second consecutive title, and the Boston Celtics of the 1968-69 season, which were the fourth sown of the East when they won their eleventh title in 13 years.
In other words, the Pacers could become the first champion in the history of the league that was not one of the first three planted or a defender champion.
Indiana also seems an unusual candidate for the championship due to its differential of +2.2 points. Since 1960, the Rockets of the 1994-95 (+2.1) season and the Washington Bullets of the 1977-78 season (+0.9) are the only champions with worse statistics in the regular season.
The Pacers curriculum is extremely similar to that of the Dallas Mavericks of the 2023-24 season, who had the opportunity to achieve all these same feats that are now at the doors of Indiana. Indiana got the fourth place in the east with a 50-32 record and a difference in points of +2.2; The Mavericks last year got fifth in the West with a 50-32 record and a difference in +2.2 points. Of course, that lower history raided the path for the defeat of five Dallas games in the finals.
On the other hand, Oklahoma City would also be located at the lower end of the historical classification if the finals would win. The Thunder had a 68-14 record in the regular season and with four more victories would reach a total of 84 wins in the season. The Chicago Bulls of the 1995-96 season, which had a 72-10 record before sweeping the playoffs, are the only champions in the history of the NBA with more total victories.
For this achievement, it is very helpful that Oklahoma City has to add 16 victories in playoffs to win the title, while teams from previous times with more compact playoff formats did not need so many.
Even so, only four champions in the NBA history ended with a better regular seasonal record than Thunder: the bulls of the 1995-96 season (72-10), the bulls of the 1996-97 season (69-13), Los Angeles Lakers of the 1971-72 season (69-13) and the Philadelphia 76ers of the 1966-67 season (68-13).
– Kram
