MLB 2025-26 offseason analysis: Cease Blue Jays

We grade and analyze every winter signing and the big offseason trades.

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The 2025-26 MLB offseason It’s here, bringing you the ratings and analysis of every major signing and transfer this winter.

Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the future of your team or a spectacular transfer, we’ll take a look at what it all means for next season and beyond.

The experts of AM850 in MLB, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield, will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow us here; This story will be updated constantly. Check back for the most up-to-date analysis leading up to the start of spring training.

Related links: Every move in the offseason

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The agreement: Seven years, $210 million
Grade: B

One of the interesting aspects of MLB free agency is that the amount of interest in a player is not always directly related to his on-field value. After all, there are only so many teams willing and able to spend nine figures. In recent years, we’ve seen excellent players like Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell settle for short-term deals at the end of the offseason while waiting for that big long-term offer that either never came or was taken off the table.

In the case of Dylan Cease, it makes a lot of sense that he would sign early while the money is available. He’s a pitcher with obvious skill and talent, but also with frustratingly inconsistent results, which was going to lead to a lot of variability in how teams evaluated him and, therefore, the offers he received. The $210 million contract the Toronto Blue Jays gave Cease is closer to the upper limit for him, considering Kiley McDaniel’s five-year, $145 million projection.

The positive:

• Pure Stuff: The “Stuff+” metric, which several websites now calculate based on various factors such as spin, movement and velocity, ranks Cease’s pitches as some of the best in the majors, including a fastball that averages 97 mph. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2025, he tied for 12th in Stuff+ according to FanGraphs.

• Durability: Cease is on a streak of five consecutive seasons with at least 32 starts. As of 2021, he is first in the Major Leagues in games started and seventh in innings. Considering that the best predictor of future injuries is past injuries, that health history and projected durability give him high potential for any future contract.

• Age: He is entering his age 30 season, clearly still in his prime.

The negative:

• His ERA has increased from 2.20 to 4.58 to 3.47 to 4.55 over the last four seasons, with corresponding changes in his value: from 6.4 WAR in 2022 with the Chicago White Sox to just 1.1 with the San Diego Padres in 2025, when he had a high ERA despite pitching in a good stadium. His road ERA in 2025 was 5.58, which is certainly concerning as he now moves to a better hitting division and a more hitter-friendly ballpark.

• His lack of efficiency not only results in too many walks (he leads the major leagues the last four seasons), but also short outings due to a high pitch count. Cease failed to last five innings in 10 of his 32 starts, which is far too common for a pitcher who just received $210 million.

In Cease’s best season in 2022, his slider was unhittable, while his four-seam fastball and knuckleball curve were also effective, making him a three-pitch pitcher. The curveball hasn’t been as effective since then, slugging .576 against it in 2025, .444 in 2024 and .538 in 2023, making him a two-pitch pitcher now. He started throwing the sweeper and sinker more frequently last season, and perhaps the continued development of those pitches will help him become one of the majors’ best starters again.

That’s what the Blue Jays are banking on. You’ll probably notice that his Fielding Independent Pitching, which only considers strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, has been fairly consistent over the past four years: 3.10, 3.72, 3.10 and 3.56, respectively. This averages 3.36, with his actual ERA rising and falling based on variations in his batting average on balls in play (.261 and .266 in 2022 and 2024, .331 and .323 in 2023 and 2025).

At the very least, the Blue Jays have a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, along with Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and José Berríos. The best version of Cease is a No. 2 starter who sometimes looks like an ace. If Bieber stays healthy all season and Berríos’ late-season elbow inflammation was only temporary, that rotation could be as good as any in baseball. We knew the Jays were going to make a big splash this preseason. This might not be his only major move. –Schoenfield

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