Liam Lawson, what can you expect from the rookie in Red Bull?

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It will be the first full season for the New Zealand pilot who replaces Checo Pérez


Liam Lawsonat 23 years (he turns on February 11), he will have his first full season in the Formula 1 “Or at least that is the idea.

He is not a rookie. He has 11 great prizes in his hands, all as an authentic ‘fireman’, and reaches Red Bull With that label. The team decided to end the relationship with the Mexican Checo Pérez and Lawson is called to improve the level of the organization – assuming that RB presents a car with real winning options.

A few months after starting the season of F1 (March 16 in Australia), we ask ourselves: what can we expect from this pilot? To rehearse answers, we divide the exercise into three scenarios. Let’s see.

A good season

We assume that Red Bull It will have a competitive car. Close to what was 2024 – it was the most winning car, 9, and matched with McLaren in poles, 8-.

With a more or less so strong car, Lawson would have a good campaign if he manages to sneak into almost all Q3 of the classification. Checo Pérez He had 13 of 24 last year, if Lawson substantially improves that number, the bet of Red Bull I would go in good direction. But their results would be missing on Sundays and the Sprint, which are the skills that distribute the points.

Czech had a 285 points deficit. Lawson’s objective must be a great reduction in that difference with respect to Max Verstappen. If you have good Saturday and are in the vast majority of Q3, that would open the doors to manage better races and close to direct competitors: McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes.

“Max is the most difficult teammate in the world. So it is a difficult job to sit next to Max, ”he said Christian Horner During 2024. “For us it is very important that our two pilots are giving their best and there is no significant difference,” added the team director, clearly marking what is expected of Lawson.

It is not to overcome Verstappen, which seems impossible. His goal must be to overcome the rivals of Verstappen and/or, hinder their passage so that the world champion can escape.

So: about 20 Q3 and staying 50-80 points from Verstappen, it would be a good season to Liam Lawsonif we consider the differences between teammates, among the four strongest teams of 2024 (see table).


A regular season

Possibly this is Lawson’s level at this time: that of a regular results pilot. But in his favor, there is age.

Continuing with the idea. If the New Zealand pilot stuck a lot in Q2 and then in Sprint and large awards adds little and without being a consistent stumbling block for direct rivals, criticism will not be expected.

Yes, you will add points – as Checo Pérez He did-, but staying away from his teammate and not supporting him in the struggles against Hamilton, Norris, Russell, Leclerc, it would be as if Czech had not left the team. But, as we said above, it would be patient because an improvement would be expected the following year.

Again, the points harvest is the metric and something regular would be about 100-150 points of Verstappen. Which would mean that Red Bull It would have complications to be world champion, unless they have a superior car – as in 2023 – and Verstappen and the organization does not need much of the second car. Although for Lawson such a campaign would mean regular performance. Nothing striking. Being fair, this scenario is the probable for the young New Zealander.


A bad year

The worst scenario is to start badly. Five big prizes without Q3, just scratching some points, losing against Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes), a full rookie, and the pressure will be equivalent to tons on his back. Comparisons will not wait and many will ask, starting with the directive of Red Bullif it was Lawson and not Yuki Tsunoda or continue with Pérez.

In the recent history of Red Bull There are a couple of young pilots that cost them to be in this seat: Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon. Neither of them continued and in fact the Frenchman was degraded to Toro Rosso after competition in Hungary In 2019.

They were 12 races for Gasly and in nine made points. His best position was a fourth place in Great Britain. And despite that, the team decided to replace it-some we believe it was something unfair.

Alex Albon Yes, the 2020 campaign ended, with 12 large prizes of 17 in the top 10, including six top 5 with two podiums. Not that season gave him to convince the leadership and continue.

In his favor, Liam Lawson has a complicated situation in Red Bullbecause there are not so many options outside your organization and patience with it is intuited that it will be greater-until Image RB should have more patience, otherwise it would be to accept that they were wrong with Pérez.

Then, a bad season would be a half of the season worse than Czech in 2024, with few appearances in Q3, being the worst at points of the 8 pilots of the 4 main teams; even losing in points against your girl, and so Red Bull He would be forced to rethink his alignment -more if F1 will be as competitive as many believe. Replace Lawson would be with Yuki or perhaps negotiating with Williams by Carlos Sainz.


Liam Lawson He has his chance. He asked for both on track and in the microphones and now ‘the ball is on his court’. It must demonstrate that it is a solution and not a major problem.

We believe that after five races, if Liam Lawson It is not somewhere between the good and regular prognosis we rehearse, the criticisms will take speed. And again Hungary It could be a limit date – of Budapest to Zandvoort There’s almost a month. It would be then that, if things are going wrong, Lawson ‘would make a galsy’ and Yuki, we believe, it would be the most obvious option to take their seat.

We’ll see …