F1: Who are the favorite drivers to win the championship?
The F1 season begins with the Australian GP. Which drivers are considered favorites to be champion?
The 2026 preseason Formula 1 It’s already a thing of the past, it’s time to travel to Melbourne for the first date of the championship in the Australian Grand Prix and the question on everyone’s mind is: who will be world champion?
While it is true that we are not sure where each team is, the three weeks of testing in Barcelona and Bahrain have left at least a list of six real candidates.
A correct estimate does not focus only on lap times, no one knows with certainty the fuel load or the programs of each team during the Bahrain tests. What we can take as a reference is the pace of the car compared to the others, the degradation of the tires in the long stints and the management of the electric power in this new regulation.
George Russell (Mercedes)
Russell arrives in Melbourne as the number one favorite of the bookmakers and the entire paddock, and the data seems to support him. He W17 accumulated more kilometers than any other car and when a complete simulation of 57 laps is reconstructed adding all the long stints of mercedesthe total time is practically identical to that of the normalized Ferrari. In overall average pace, it cannot be said that Mercedes is behind Ferrari, no matter how much the absolute times suggest otherwise.
Russell, at 28 years old and in his prime as a driver, seems to have the most complete platform: the reference engine on the grid, the largest preseason data bank, and the structure that has won eight consecutive constructors. If the W17 confirms in the race what it hinted at in the long stints in Bahrain, George has the most direct path to the title.
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Leclerc was the fastest driver of the entire preseason, the only one to break the barrier of one minute and 32 seconds. But beyond the return, it is the degradation data that really places him as a serious candidate. Ferrari completed the only fully representative race simulation in extreme conditions and the SF-26 It showed exceptional numbers with the C2 compound: 0.019 and 0.022 s/turn of degradation, the best in the entire comparison. The regression curve is almost flat. There is no final collapse. The medium tire, in the hands of this Ferrari, is a rock.
The Monegasque has never had a car genuinely capable of sustaining a championship fight for an entire season. The SF-26, with its rocket-propelling turbo and aggressive technical innovation, could be that car. The big question is whether Ferrari will maintain the level of development to support it over 24 races; If so, the title depends on Charles.
Lando Norris (McLaren)
The current champion does not arrive as the main favorite, something unusual but explained with data. Most of the time when there is a major regulation change, the drivers’ champion is different from the previous year. Andrea Stella He also left his message between the lines: “McLaren and Red Bullprobably very similar. Ferrari and Mercedes one step ahead.”
But betting against Norris and against a McLaren that has the services of Rob Marshall in a 24-race season is a mistake that we should not make. McLaren won the last two constructors, Norris learned to keep calm in decisive moments, and they will receive the latest Mercedes engine specification for Melbourne. Woking’s track record in mid-season development is impressive – if they find something with energy management, Lando has the talent, mentality and structure to defend his crown.
Verstappen arrives in 2026 being the best driver on the grid, but the Dutchman was totally honest: “I don’t think we are going to fight for victory in Melbourne. We have to be realistic.” The data seems to be on their side; he RB22 It had the worst degradation of the top four teams with the data indicating that the new car is sensitive to the operating window, something that would complicate its play on circuits with changing weather.
power unit Red Bull Powertrains-Ford It surprised everyone with its reliability. Max himself joked: “They probably thought the engine was going to explode.” But it lacks pure power and Verstappen knows it. The Verstappen variable is that his talent compensates for machinery deficits like no other driver in recent history. He lost the 2025 title by just two points with an inferior car. Yeah Red Bull finds power during the season, Max is capable of coming back from any position. Underestimating him remains the worst possible bet in this sport.
Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
The Australian achieved the third best time of the tests with 1:32.861 and his degradation data makes up the bulk of the information we have about the MCL40. At 24 years old, he enters his fourth season having learned the hardest possible lesson: he led the 2025 championship for a good part of the year before a movie collapse.
The question with Piastri is not whether he has the talent, but whether he can sustain the pressure for nine months without a repeat of that collapse. The maturity he brings back to Melbourne will be as decisive as any degradation data. With McLaren as a platform and the right tools, Piastri is a legitimate candidate. But he needs to prove it when the pressure increases.
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Seven world titles and a 2025 that many prefer to forget: not a single podium in his first season with Ferrari, clearly surpassed by Leclerc. But there is a growing feeling on the grid that the new generation of single-seaters will suit him much better than the ground effect cars. Hamilton has entered his second season at Maranello visibly revitalized, and the SF-26 looks like it will perform well.
If Hamilton recovers even 90% of his best level, Ferrari could boast the strongest couple on the grid. A clear risk is that he lost valuable time on the last day of testing due to reliability issues, falling behind Leclerc in preparation. At 41, Hamilton no longer has the margin of seasons ahead of him: 2026 may be his last real chance to reach eight world championships but, to win the championship, he must also beat Leclerc.
We must be clear about something: Sergio Perez is not going to fight for the world championship in 2026. And that’s fine, because Checo’s real expectations in cadillac They are of a completely different nature, and no less valuable for that reason.
Pérez arrives at the newest team on the grid with a role that goes far beyond Sunday’s results. It is, in essence, the experienced pilot who needs a nascent structure to learn to walk before running. Cadillac finished the preseason just over three seconds off the pace, with respectable mileage and no reliability issues. For a team that did not exist a year ago, that is already an achievement.
Realistic expectations for Checo are: finish races consistently, accumulate data that feeds the development of the MAC-26, outperform an established team on days where circumstances allow, and serve as a reference for Cadillac to understand where it is and where it needs to go.
If Pérez manages to get the car into Q2 in some races and fight for points sporadically towards the second half of the season, he will have more than fulfilled his goal. His experience of more than 250 Grand Prix is exactly what a project like this needs in its first season, and Checo knows it. It is not the chapter of the title, but it may be the chapter of the legacy.
