F1: Max Verstappen has the 2026 pilot market key

The noise about the possible move the Tetrampeon of Red Bull to Mercedes does not cease. Everything will be defined at the end of August, when the boreal summer holidays are finished. What would the cascade effect be like?

The 2025 Formula 1 season crossed Ecuador after Great Britain and rumors about the conformation of the 2026 grill are increasing. The noise was in recent days for the Cimbronazo that meant Christian Horner’s dismissal of his position as director of Red Bull Racing. The replicas of the Pope’s exit by Milton Keynes are going out and the spotlights point again in the person who has the key of the near future of the World Cup: nothing less than Max Verstappen.

Toto Wolff’s interest to take Mercedes to Tetracampeón is not new. In 2024, the Austrian had to look for a replacement for Lewis Hamilton, who early in the year announced his departure to go to Ferrari. The director of the silver arrows waited for everything possible to Max, until he finally had no time and confirmed to the rookie Kimi Antonelli to accompany George Russell. The talks with the Dutch had existed, but the honey of the title placed their desire to leave Red Bull, despite the clear performance fall that the RB20 had experienced in the second half of the year.

In 2025 the competitiveness problems of energy drinks were increased. Already without Adrian Newey, among other people in the previous successes (Rob Marshall and Jonathan Wheatley), the Austrian team depended on the first 12 pure dates and exclusively on the inexhaustible talent of Verstappen. The champion did magic several times, as in Icola or in the Silverstone classification. But it does not reach, nor will it reach, to overcome the powerful McLaren. The dismissal of Horner decided by Oliver Mintzlaff was, beyond that he wanted to cut with the absolute power of English, a sample of closeness with Max, because the Verstappen clan was at war declared with the director; Fundamentally Jos, Max’s father.

However, Verstappen is still the stream of the season. While his contract with the bulls expires at the close of 2028, the Dutch could execute a fair performance clause at the beginning of the holidays. Ola Källenius, CEO of Mercedes, approved the expensive hiring of Verstappen, who would have a salary close to 100 million dollars. Brackley based team has three owners who distribute shares in equal parts: Mercedes, Wolff and Ineos. From Red Bull, according to the Gazzetta dello Sport, they would not put legal obstacles to Max if he finally decided to leave.

Now, Verstappen’s move to Mercedes would break the market. Who would be your partner? Russell’s contract expires at the end of the year and for now was not renewed. Both Wolff and the English pilot said several times that they are in talks, but it still did not happen. According to Jenson Button, former champion and current commentator, Mercedes would build a very strong pair: Verstappen-Russell. With the renewal of the British and the landing of the Dutch, Kimi Antonelli would run out of chair in the silver arrows, but in no way outside the F1. The Italian would go to one of the teams that are clients of the star engines, Alpine and Williams. The strongest rumor places Boloñés in the French team. It is worth clarifying that Franco Colapinto’s position in Estone is evaluated race to career this season, which 2026 appears as something distant for now. The Williams chance for Antonelli could be opened if Carlos Sainz goes to Red Bull.

It seems like everything, but Verstappen would break the market. Sainz signed a contract with Williams until the end of 2026, but with an exit clause at the end of the current exercise if a strong option appeared. That would leave a chair in Grove, which could take Antonelli. But what if Russell leaves? If Wolff decides to keep his gem (Antonelli) to accompany Max, the British could go directly to Red Bull and there would close the circle. However, Aston Martin could appear in the game. The Team of the Millionaire Lawrence Stroll has Fernando Alonso in his last bars in F1 and his son Lance. Having Russell to lead the English structure can be interesting for both parties.

And Red Bull? I could have a completely different training. It is known that Yuki Tsunoda will not continue, not only for performance, it is that its position inside the energetizing drink house (it comes from the other team, formerly Alpha Tauri and today Racing Bulls) was accompanied by Honda. The Japanese brand imposed, in exchange for money, its pilot within society for the use of engines. The Ala house will go to Aston Martin in 2026 and Yuki will not continue. Isack Hadjar is almost number set for Red Bull next year, beyond Verstappen. If the Dutch finally stays, the French would accompany the tetracampeon and in Racing Bull would be Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad, the hope of the Energy Drink Development Program (something like the Antonelli of Red Bull). The arrival of the young English pays two pesos and will take the place of Hadjar. That, of not happening anything weird, is closed.

The end of August seems to be the time when everything could be shot. If Max finally swears loyalty to the team that led him to the top in Formula 1, there will be practically no movements. Russell and Antonelli will continue in Mercedes, Sainz will continue in Williams and Alpine will decide on their side, if the equipment is not sold. The game is open and the key is from Max.