F1 GP Las Vegas: the race where they can dethrone Verstappen
Max Verstappen has everything at stake in Las Vegas: stay in the fight for the drivers’ title or be eliminated.
Max Verstappen comes to vegas facing something he probably thought he had left in 2020: the real possibility of being eliminated from the championship before the final race.
Lando Norrisof McLarenhas a 49-point advantage over the Dutchman with 86 available, and although he cannot emerge as champion in the Nevada desert, mathematically he can send Max home this weekend.
But here’s the problem: we could say that Las Vegas is basically Monza with casinos and hotels around it, and we all remember what Verstappen did in the temple of speed.
But since nothing is written, these are the scenarios in which Verstappen could be eliminated from the drivers’ championship this weekend.
A) If Norris wins: Verstappen needs to finish P2; a victory for Lando with a P3 for Max eliminates the champion.
B) If Norris is P2: Max must finish P5 or better. A P6 is already goodbye to the five-time championship.
C) If Norris is P3: Verstappen P6 must be the champion’s worst result to stay alive, a P7 and the championship is gone.
D) If Norris is P4: the least Max should get is a P8. P9 leaves him tied with Vettel and Hamilton with 4 championships in a row.
E) If Norris is P5: Max must secure P9 or better. Any result beyond that and the championship becomes a two-man fight.
Those are the numbers. Nice on paper. The problem is that Lando will have to achieve those results on the circuit that best suits Verstappen of those left on the calendar.
McLaren must suffer in Las Vegas
Las Vegas is high top speed, configuration like Monza. Do you remember Monza? Verstappen dominated both McLarens. The RB21 is a disaster in slow corners, but on straights the bug flies.
On the Las Vegas track, the team that can generate the highest top speed predominates and taking as a reference what Verstappen did in Monza, you don’t have to be a NASA scientist to predict that here the Red Bull will have a competitive advantage over both McLarens since the MCL-39 does not generate as much speed on the straights and both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri They have used engines while the Dutchman assembled a new power unit in Sao Paulo.
Another point for Verstappen is that the McLaren’s advantage is its tire thermal management. While the other teams eat up the Pirelli compounds, the MCL-39 keeps them perfect, the thing is that in Las Vegas, the team that has overheating problems on other tracks here is the one that gets theirs to optimal temperature the fastest, another point for Verstappen.
The McLaren’s advantage disappears when it’s cold. It could become a problem if Norris fails to warm up the tires. Lando arrives at the circuit where his car loses its best card and the Red Bull finds its own which brings us to the next point.
Max has a new engine
Max changed the engine in Sao Paulo, taking advantage of the poor classification to penalize. Now Verstappen has a power unit ready to be pushed to the maximum for the rest of 2025, while Lando abandoned in Zandvoort due to mechanical failure and in Monza he installed a recycled engine.
Verstappen can push like there is no tomorrow. Norris has to pray that he lasts. Nothing says “eliminate your rival” like having to manage your engine while he puts the pedal to the metal.
Mercedes: those who don’t fight for anything
George Russell won Las Vegas 2024. Antonelli finished second in Sprint and race in São Paulo. If Mercedes is competitive, they can put one or two Mercedes between Norris and Verstappen, and everything changes there.
If Russell or Kimi wins and Norris is second, Max can be third and still be alive. Mercedes is not fighting for the title, but it can decide who does. It is the definition of chaos agent: they have nothing to lose and all the power to ruin other people’s plans.
Las Vegas: the circuit in favor of Verstappen
Verstappen can be eliminated from the championship on the only circuit where he has all the advantages: a configuration that favors him, temperatures that neutralize McLaren, a fresh engine, and Mercedes dividing the field.
If Lando manages to eliminate him here, it will not only be a blow to Max, but also to Oscar Piastri, who, finding himself in second position in the championship, is counting on a Verstappen alive in the championship to be able to blur Norris in the last three rounds.
But if Max wins and closes the gap, the narrative is equally epic: the champion refusing to die, using every advantage available, fighting with an inferior tank until the end.
Las Vegas could be the funeral of Verstappen’s reign. Or it could be where Max reminds everyone that he didn’t win four championships by luck. With 12 degrees on the track, a fresh engine and a high-speed circuit, it has everything you need.
The real question is not whether Max can be eliminated. It’s whether Lando can do it when the universe conspires against him. Because if he fails here, with Verstappen at a general disadvantage but with a circuit advantage, that pressure is only going to grow.
