Does it make sense for Red Sox to change Rafael Devers?

If the conflicts of recent months take Boston to make the decision to move the Dominican, what they could receive in return and what they would have to do to generate interest in other teams.

Amid the public confrontation that Rafael Devers and Boston Red Sox They have had the idea that the Dominican could be changed their position new in the campaign, many questions have come afloat. ¿Devers will it end playing in the first base? How will you perform if you do? Will the team look for an option from outside in the change market?among others, but none has been repeated more than Devers and the Red Sox They are close to breaking their relationship.

Prior to the start of season 2023, Rafael Devers signed a contractual extension with the Red Sox For ten seasons and 313.5 million dollars, which ties it, at least in principle, Boston until the 2033 season, when the Dominican will be 36 years old, for which the idea that the team changes its franchise player, in the midst of an extensive contract, is one that looks complicated to perform.

However, Would it be possible to change to devers? What could obtain Red Sox In exchange for a designated batter of more than 300 million dollars?

The first thing is to analyze the contractual aspect. Deverswith 28 years, he is in the second season of the agreement and not including his bonus per signature of 20 million dollars, his agreement pays him 29.6 million per campaign. That salary is an important amount in the accounting books of any team, although there are currently several players who comfortably exceed the figure, so any equipment that wishes to take advantage of an eventual availability of Devers In the change market, I would have to take that into account.

However, this is a double -edged sword for Red Sox for the fact that with the defensive deficiencies that forced to move Devers To be a batter designated from the third base, the only way to obtain a moderately decent return by the player is whether the team pays an important part of the rest of the agreement, as we saw when the set change to the pitcher David Price toward Los Angeles Dodgers in the change of Mookie Bettswhere they had to send 48 million dollars next to the pitcher.

That said, there is a comparison about the player with his peers. At the offensive level, Rafael Devers It has been one of the most consistent hitters of the recent past in MLB. From 2021 to date, among all qualified batters (with 1,000 appearances to the plate at least), Devers is number 8 of Major Leagues in total bases with 1,246. It is the number 11 in terms of races created with 444, occupies the seventeenth position in PAHO+ with 136 and its WAR is 16.8, the number 30 of the League.

In addition, despite not having one of the fastest swings of MLBhis offensive metrics place him as an elite batter in terms of average exit speed of his batteries with 95.7 miles per hour (located in the 99 Statcast percentile) and his percentage of contacts forcefully (with 95 miles per hour or more) is 61.9, locating it in the 100th percentile.

Defensively speaking, as we said before, it is one of the worst players of the League, being second in errors made between antealists since 2018 to date and last season, it ended with -9 in saved defensive races (DRS), which means that its defense cost nine races to Boston, so its designated batter movement is justified.

Said all this, and staying only with the offensive part, the players that are best compared to Devers From 2021 to date they are Pete Alonso (War 16.4, PAHO+ 135 and 428 races created) and Kyle Schwarber (War 11.6, OPS+ 135, 436 created races), who are very good batters, but are not considered among the elite.

There is no way to defend, at least at this time, a change for Rafael Devers for the simple fact that, at the offensive level, the Red Sox They are not better without him and his options to cover the position are not many. Additionally, the amount of money that Boston would have to send to another team to obtain a return of level players is very high, so financially a change would not make sense at this time.

Despite this, I should not surprise that if the situation has no solution, Red Sox make the decision to change it, as has already happened with other great stars of the team in the past.