Can Jayson Tatum shake off the rust in time for the playoffs?

The Celtics, whose revamped roster entered this season with the franchise’s lowest expectations in a decade, have had a memorable campaign that puts them in second place in the Eastern Conference and as betting favorites to reach the Finals. (On Wednesday night, Boston hosts the only team in the league with the best odds to win the NBA title, the reigning champion, Oklahoma City Thunder).

To reach that level again, Tatum will likely have to regain his pre-injury form. And as the franchise grapples with the difficulties of a nearly unprecedented situation, Tatum and the Celtics represent perhaps the biggest unknown of the 2026 playoffs.

“The question is: Will they have enough time to figure it out?” a Western Conference scout told AM850. “(Eleven) more regular season games are not many.”

---

IT WAS PROJECTED that Boston’s season would be a transition year, given that Tatum’s injury — added to the offseason departures of Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet— left the team without much of its core for the 2024 championship. However, the Celtics never adopted that mentality; The possibility of Tatum’s return loomed over the Boston team’s surprising trajectory toward the Eastern Conference elite.

Even going back to Tatum’s surgery — performed the morning after the Game 4 loss to the New York Knicks, in order to avoid inflammation and accelerate his recovery by a month—there was a belief that, indeed, Tatum could return at some point during the 2025-26 season.

“Because of the seriousness with which one approaches surgery,” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla commented before the game that marked Tatum’s return. “The seriousness with which one begins to approach the rehabilitation process, not only from the physical level, but also from the mental and emotional level…

“I knew he would do everything he could.”

As Tatum moved through the various phases of his recovery, the focus turned to what his game would look like once his eventual return occurred. And once this took place, the conversation changed direction again.

Could Tatum regain his superstar level in time for a deep playoff run?

“I just go day by day,” Tatum said Sunday. “I probably have the worst injury you can have. I came back in 10 months.”

“I wanted to be perfect and,” Tatum continued, snapping his fingers, “be the Jayson of the First Team All-NBA like that, suddenly. “I didn’t rush the rehab process, so I can’t rush this one either.”

Tatum’s first eight games have been marked by many ups and downs, with two numbers that immediately stand out: a 30.8% usage rate and a heavy reliance on 3-pointers.

“It would be better if he could get the ball off the ball a little more,” said one Eastern Conference assistant coach. “But I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

Tatum’s usage, while in line with his last five seasons, does not resemble that of a player gradually returning to the game. “That’s too high,” another Western Conference scout stated flatly.

“A big part of it is wanting to come back and get back to who you were before,” said one assistant coach whose team has faced Tatum this season. “It’s hard to say, ‘I’m back, but I can only play X amount of minutes.'”

Additionally, Tatum has made 75 of his 139 attempts (53.9%) from behind the three-point arc.

“For me, the almost nine three-pointers per game say it all,” commented the assistant coach. “He’s still an extremely intelligent player and has great shooting ability. But he doesn’t seem to trust his leg yet, or maybe he still can’t get past his defenders one-on-one, so he’s looking for his jump shot more than ever.”

However, simply looking at Tatum’s initial shooting numbers — including 38.8% from the field and 29.3% from three-point range in the games he has played — does not accurately reflect his potential impact. While scoring often gets most of the attention—heading into the 2025-26 season, Tatum averaged more than 26 points for five consecutive seasons—he has provided considerable value in other facets of the game throughout his career.

Despite lacking great explosiveness, Tatum is averaging 8.9 rebounds—the highest number of his career—an aspect that has been fundamental for the Celtics squad, reduced in stature after the loss of its big men (Porzingis, Horford and Kornet) last summer. Tatum has always stood out as a solid defender, both in collective defense and in assists, and this season he has averaged 1.1 steals.

“In my opinion, they’re the best team in the Eastern Conference,” said another assistant coach who has followed the Celtics closely since Tatum’s return. “I don’t think his return is providing immediate help at this moment, but I am convinced that it will be decisive for the playoffs.”

“He just doesn’t seem to have full confidence in that leg yet. However, if he is allowed to take static shots and throws that allow him to find his rhythm, he will perform excellently.”

---

THE CHALLENGE THEY FACE Tatum and the Celtics is about balancing the natural desire to rush back into a first-option role with the reality that the best immediate path forward is for Tatum to settle into a secondary role, behind the cMVP candidate, Jaylen Brown.

“(Tatum) looks like most players coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon: He doesn’t look good at all. That’s why coming back now is so difficult. There are a lot of downside risks, but not a lot of potential upside,” said one Eastern Conference scout, adding that, in his opinion, the Celtics are giving Tatum all the freedom he needs to get back to his rhythm.

As an example of how Boston could optimize Tatum’s performance going forward, the Western Conference’s first scout pointed to the transformation the Tatum offense has undergone. Los Angeles Lakers In recent weeks, as LeBron James has taken on a new role as a secondary option behind Luka Doncic.

“You have to give them credit — both to the team and to him —: (LeBron) is playing the right way,” the scout said. “He’s a basketball genius; he’s figuring out how to fill the team’s gaps, and right now, they’re unstoppable. With Tatum coming back, it’s inevitable to go through a period of adjustment and initial difficulties; you just have to give him time.”

In Boston’s rotation, Tatum has largely assumed the minutes he had been playing Jordan Walsh. The energetic forward, who is in his third season in the league, was averaging 17.2 minutes per game but has not played in any of Boston’s last five games. The 5.3 points per game that Walsh has averaged this season are far from what even a Tatum lacking rhythm can contribute and, of course, from what a version of him in full physical condition would offer.

Naturally, it will take time for Tatum to reach his peak again; something that, according to all the sources consulted about his return, will end up happening sooner or later. The big question — and possibly one of the biggest questions hanging over the conference — is whether he can regain that level during the Celtics’ next playoff run.

Last year’s conference champion, the Indiana Pacersis in the midst of a true year of transition after Tyrese Haliburton suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Detroit Pistons They have had an extraordinary season at the top of the conference, but questions arise about their scoring ability heading into the playoffs. They haven’t won a postseason series since 2008, and their superstar, Cade Cunningham, remains sidelined with a collapsed lung.

Meanwhile, the Knicks and the Cleveland Cavaliers They began the season as the co-favorites to win the conference, but have suffered numerous setbacks that have cast doubt on either team’s ability to make the final leap. And the other Eastern teams once considered likely to make a real impact—such as Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers— have fallen short.

The Celtics, however, have always believed they can win it all. That was Mazzulla’s message during training camp, and it remains the team’s belief now that Tatum has returned. Boston is not only looking to return to the NBA Finals, but is also trying to guide its star through an extremely difficult process: readapting to high-level basketball on the fly, and with the playoffs just around the corner.

“In a way, this reminds me of Jordan’s year with No. 45,” said an Eastern Conference assistant coach, referring to the moment Michael Jordan returned after his foray into baseball in March of the 1994-95 season. “He is working to regain his fitness in the middle of the season, getting into the rhythm of the competition, and we will see if he succeeds.”