Are Sixers the most disappointing team of the 21st century?
Sixers are not alone in not having met the pre -season expectations, but their fall is perhaps the most loud.
What is the Nadir of the 2024-25 season of the Philadelphia 76ers?
Was it when Joel Embiidin full absence due to injury, was it suspended in November for an altercation in the costumes with a journalist? Was it when Paul George He announced at the end of February that he would pause his podcast to focus on a fight for playoffs, just to undergo medical procedures that ended his season a week later? Or was it in March, when the 76ers lost home against the Washington Wizards, the worst team of the East Conference?
All are decent moments in the midst of many others throughout the Seasonal disaster in Philadelphia, which now includes Embiid facing arthroscopic surgery in its left knee next week, a month after it had already been discarded for the rest of the season.
The 76ers did not expect to meet in April in this situation after seven consecutive appearances in the playoffs and a low season that apparently consolidated their aspirations to the championship. Philadelphia renewed Embiid contracts and Tyrese Maxeyhe signed George-the most important star in changing equipment in free agency in years-and added an impressive depth in all positions during the summer. Kevin Pelton, from AM850, granted two “A” grades-to the 76ers and the Oklahoma City Thunder-when evaluating the summer of each team.
And although the Thunder is sown No. 1 of the West and is ready to establish the NBA record by points differential in a season, the 76ers seem now to be trying to lose as many games as possible to avoid giving Oklahoma City a precious protected selection among the first six in the June Draft.
Since February 4, Philadelphia has the worst record of the NBA, with 3-24, and a net rating of -10.9.
But that is practically the only success of the franchise this season. While this fiasco limps until its conclusion, let’s analyze the enormous disappointment of the 76ers: its causes, its historical place and what comes next.
The disappointing stars prepare the way
The lost season of Philadelphia begins with Embiid, the NBA MVP 2022-23, who played only 19 games this season and now 49% of the 76ers meetings have been lost since it was drafted. Embiid joins Derrick Rose as just the second MVP in the last two decades that did not end in the top 10 in the vote two years after winning the award.
In other words: almost all MVP are still first -level superstars for at least a couple of seasons later. But do not ram, at least according to its results on the court.
Even if I had played more matches this season, Embiid would probably have not been considered for an award. Not only their statistics counted and their efficiency were affected (their scoring dropped from 34.7 to 23.8 points per game and its real percentage of shooting collapsed from 64% to 58%), but the 76ers were also surpassed in annotation when Embiid played for the first time in his career. Registered a net negative assessment-5.5 this season, after ending more-+8 or more in the last four seasons.
For years, the 76ers winning formula had been to dominate Embiid’s minutes and try to stay afloat without him. But the first part could not achieve this season. Even when the alleged trio of Embiid, George and Maxey played together, the 76ers scored only 109 points per 100 possessions, which placed them in the 17th percentile of the League, according to Cleaning The Glass.
George, in the first year of a maximum four -year contract that will keep him until his 37 -year -old season, had difficulty staying healthy and playing at his usual level when he was available. After nine consecutive seasons scoring at least 21 points per game, George went down to 16 this season.
Despite a lower use rate-which, in theory, meant that he could better choose his plays-his efficiency collapsed. Last season, George shot 6% better than the NBA average, but this season was 6% less precise. Advanced statistics suggest that George has been less valuable than Tobias Harris, the eaves so criticized to the one who replaced in Philadelphia and is now ready to return to the playoffs with the Detroit Pistons.
And although Maxey was much more productive than his two companions All-NBA, the most progress player last year also put his feet on the ground a bit. With a greater workload than expected due to frequent absences of Embiid and George, Maxey yet scored enough points, but its efficiency was affected. Its triple precision fell from 37% to 34%, and its ball losses shot in a third, from 1.7 per game last season to 2.4 this. It seems that Maxey found its maximum potential and adapts better as a secondary star than as a main option for a team that is candidate for playoffs.
Beyond those setbacks, the other factor that harmed the 76ers season from the beginning were injuries. According to Spotrac, the 76ers have lost more money from the salary stop by injured players than any other team this season. The New Orleans Pelicans take second place on that list, and have also played below expectations for a wide margin.
Those absences ruined the ability of the 76ers to maintain consistency in their rotations. They have used 52 different titular lineups to date, establishing a new NBA record.
The greatest disappointment of the century?
The 76ers had an expectation of pre -season 50.5 victories, according to the Basketball Reference Over/under file. Enough to say that they will not even approach that figure. As parties continue to lose, they will probably not even reach half.
Philadelphia is on its way to finishing as the third team with the worst NBA performance in the 21st century. If the 76ers lose and end with 23 victories, there will be 27.5 victories below their expectations; If they fulfill their prognosis of the Basketball Power Index (BPI) of 24 wins AM850, 26.5 will be left.
The team with the worst performance of the century is the Miami Heat of 2007-08, who lost Dwyane Wade for injury, changed Shaquille O’Neal and faded in the final stretch, on the way to a record of 15-67 in the worst and last season of Pat Riley as the main coach.
Second on the list is another team that suffered expensive injuries: the Golden State Warriors of the 2019-20 season. After five consecutive appearances in the NBA finals, these Warriors were just a shadow of what they were: Kevin Durant went to Brooklyn, Klay Thompson lost the whole season and Stephen Curry only played five games. The rookie Eric Paschall led the team at total points.
But it was not expected that those heat teams aged, and the Warriors ravaged by the lesions, were as good as these 76ers. By limiting the list to the teams with an Over/Under of at least 50 victories, the 76ers are placed at the top, surpassing the Lakers of the 2021-22 season (52.5 Over/Under, a real record of 33-49), which also remained out of the playoffs.
It was projected that the 76ers would end among the top six this season, according to Over/ Under bets, and now they strive to end among the last six and thus keep their selection. Given the combination of the expectation generated in the preseason and its failure when fulfilling it, it could be rightly argued that 76ers are the most disappointing team of the 21st century.
What comes after disappointment?
But wait! In an unexpected turn, there could be some light at the end of this dispute and dark tunnel.
The history of other teams that have disappointed as deeply as the 76ers suggests that they are not condemned forever. This is an example of the “Plexiglass principle” of Knowledge Bill James: the teams that yield below expectations for such a wide margin often recover quite quickly. After all, it is better to have stars that generate high expectations from the beginning than to have any.
The Heat of the 2007-08 season collapsed, but returned to the finals three years later, thanks to Wade and a couple of famous free agents such as LeBron James and Chris Bosh. The Warriors of the 2019-20 season took a step back, but won another title two years later. The Lakers of the 2021-22 season stumbled, but they arrived at the western conference finals the following season.
In his favor, the disastrous campaign of the 76ers hides some lights of hope in their development. The debutant escort Jared McCain only played 23 games due to a meniscus break, but still leads all rookies with 15.3 points per game despite having been selected in the 16th place of the draft last year. And Quentin Grimes exploded after being transferred to Philadelphia in the middle of the season. The numbers of Grimes with the 76ers (21.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 39% in triples) are very similar to those of the All-Star Jalen Williams this season (21.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 36% in triples), although without a defense worthy of awards.
Next season, between Maxey, McCain and Grimes-suggesting that the latter remains in Philadelphia throughout the period of restricted free agency-, 76ers should be able to have dynamic scorers from the perimeter during the 48 minutes. George and Embiid could return healthier after long breaks to recover. A selection among the top five could join the template, depending on how the lottery develops. And General Manager Daryl Morey will make his usual magic in management to meet the needs.
Perhaps none of that matters if Embiid, who will win 55.2 million dollars next season before its maximum extension begins in 2026-27, fails to recover. But at least 76ers have a solid base. It may seem less stable now that since they began to build it in the years of the process, but a historical disappointment in a season not necessarily lasts forever.
