World Classic 2026: Keys to Italy’s defeat against Venezuela

We analyze the factors that influenced the decision of the match that ended with Venezuela obtaining its pass to the final of the World Classic to face the United States.

The game this Monday, March 16 at Miami’s loanDepot Park was exactly what was expected, a clash between two of the best teams in the 2026 edition of the World Baseball Classic, which culminated in the victory of Venezuela by a score of 4 runs to 2. The victory now places the Venezuelans in their first final in the history of the event and on their way to facing the United States.

In close duels like today’s, there are multiple factors that influence when determining the result. In the case of Venezuela’s victory, a high-level relief by Ricardo Sánchez and Luinder Ávila over four innings was a vital part of containing Italy’s offense, which threatened early in the game.

However, it is fair to ask: what other key factors contributed to Italy’s defeat against the South American team?

The change by “instinct” that marked the course of the game

Michael Lorenzen was the pitcher who was initially scheduled to start the game against Venezuela, but a few hours before the game, manager Francisco Cervelli decided to listen to his “instinct” and make a change, placing Aaron Nola on the mound to start the game.

Nola’s selection was effective, after remaining on the mound for four innings in which he allowed only one run. Then came the decision that would change the course of the game: Michael Lorenzen entered in a relief role.

Lorenzen navigated the first two innings without problems, but in the seventh inning, after having gotten two outs, Venezuela hit four hits in a row to take control of the match and take the win in the process.

Keeping Lorenzen too much, the mistake for which Italy paid dearly.

There is a phrase that says that “after the child is born, it is easy to say that it is a boy,” which basically points to the fact that it is easy to point out things once they have happened, but the reality is that, in a game with as much importance as this one, allowing Michael Lorenzen to not only tie the game, but also produce two more runs, was an oversight by manager Cervelli.

The Italian bullpen has been effective throughout the tournament, with its exceptions, so aggressiveness in its use, regardless of whether MLB team restrictions or the number of pitches were present, was key. To think about the game strategy against the United States, Italy was obliged to beat Venezuela.